2018 NFL Mid-Season Power Rankings

Every team has now played at least eight games, so it feels appropriate to produce some power rankings. With more than half the season in the bag it’s a good time to recalibrate how everyone is performing. The honest intention of these power rankings is to use data to compile the list, but personal beliefs do find their way into the calculus. Without further delay, here are the mid-season power rankings.

1. Los Angeles Rams 8-1

The Rams debut at #1 in these power rankings. There’s no shame in your only loss being on the road at the Saints. The Chiefs are ahead of the Rams in point differential by 2. The Rams are 2nd in DVOA to the Chiefs. FiveThiryEight has the Chiefs 1st, and the Rams 5th. The only place to find the Rams ahead of the Chiefs is at ProFootballFocus. So why rank Los Angeles 1st?

I just can’t get over the defensive differential. Los Angeles is 16th in defensive DVOA, while the Chiefs are 27th. For the sake of simplicity, let’s just call the offenses a wash. So in that case, don’t we have to go with the better defense, especially when it is significantly better? PFF grading reaffirms the large gap between the two defenses. In fact, they’re calling it much larger than the 11 spot DVOA difference.

The Rams also sport the better offensive line, and have been slightly more consistent, ranking 10th in variance as opposed to KC’s 14th ranking. You can rank the Chiefs 1 and I won’t say anything negative about it. I just disagree.

2. New England Patriots 7-2

Ok, so, how are the Chiefs not second in then? KC is 1st in DVOA, 1st in point differential, and 1st in ELO rating. The only place the Patriots are ahead of the Chiefs is PFF, and it’s by one spot. So what gives?

A few things. First, and this is probably the least meaningful data point, but the Patriots beat the Chiefs. I’m not a fan of this argument, but it has to factor in. New England won by 3 at home, which in world of point spreads and Vegas means the two teams are even. (You give three points for playing a game at home, so a matchup Vegas views as even on a neutral field would be -3 with the home team being favored).

Second, we have to go back to the defense. Believe it or not, but the Patriots are up to 13th in defensive DVOA. The difference between the two defenses is even larger at PFF than it is according to DVOA. The Chiefs are producing a better pass rush, which is a core four area, but the Patriots have a massive

Lastly, the Chiefs have probably hit a ceiling while the Patriots have more upside to explore. I’m not saying the Chiefs will necessarily fall down from this ceiling (although Mahomes’ 9.1% TD rate is most likely unsustainable over a full season), but where is the room for improvement? The Chiefs outpacing the Patriots in all these performance markers is built on the back of KC’s dominant offense.

But about that offensive gap. Julian Edelman, Josh Gordon, Sony Michel, and Gronk have all played together in only two games this season. The Patriots scored 81 points in those two games. They were against the Colts and Chiefs, so not the most stout defenses. Agree or disagree with the Patriots over the Chiefs, it’s fine, but the Patriots are the ones with upside and the have a win against Kansas City.

3. Kansas City Chiefs 8-1

It almost feels unnecessary to write anything here since I’ve covered the Chiefs’ resume already. Here is a recap though; Kansas City is 1st in point differential, 1st in DVOA, 1st in FiveThiryEight’s ELO rating, and 3rd at PFF.

They’re pretty good.

4. New Orleans Saints 7-1

The Saints are 5th in point differential, 7th in DVOA, 3rd in ELO, and 4th at PFF. New Orleans is on a seven game winning streak, with their last three victories coming in Baltimore, in Minnesota, and against the Rams. The Saints are 2nd in variance, so they’re an elite team every time they take the field.

New Orleans rounds out what appears to be a rather clear top four teams in the NFL, creating a top tier for the power rankings. As a result, each of the top four teams has at least a 63% chance at a first round bye. For the sake of getting the best matchups in the conference title games, I hope this holds.

5. Los Angeles Chargers 6-2

Fundamentals: L.A. is 7th in point differential, 5th in DVOA, 8th in ELO, and 6th in PFF. There’s a case to be made here that the Steelers or Panthers should be in 5th, so why the Chargers?

Back to the point above about New England, there’s upside with the Chargers. Joey Bosa has played 0 snaps this season. Right not L.A.’s DVOA split is 3rd on offense and 15th on defense. Only one team has both units in the top ten, and that’s Chicago. No, I can’t quantify this statistically, but a healthy Bosa and continued progression from Derwin James would logically get Los Angeles into the top 10 on defense.

The Chargers also rank 1st in variance, so on a week to week basis they are the most consistent team.

(Before screaming at your computer screen “HOW ARE THE BEARS NOT TOP FIVE THEN?!” let this thing play out a little more. You can still be dissatisfied with the answer, I’m just asking you wait for the whole argument)

6. Carolina Panthers 6-2

I cannot stress enough how much I think the Panthers and Steelers are tied. I almost just listed the two teams tied at 6th. The Panthers are 8th in point differential at +40 and the Steelers are 9th at +39. That basically sums it up.

The largest discrepancy is in DVOA, where Carolina ranks 3rd and Pittsburgh 11th. ELO and PFF are closer on the two, with one favoring Carolina and one favoring Pittsburgh.

The tie breaker, once again, is the defense. While Pitt ranks 21st in defensive DVOA, Carolina is 14th. I tend to go with the better quarterback in instances of close calls, hence almost picking the Steelers here.

But I have to give credit where it is due. Before the season I lambasted Carolina’s offense for having pieces that don’t fit together whatsoever. Yea, about that. Norv Turner isn’t having Cam Newton hold onto the ball while everyone runs 60 yards downfield. Among quarterbacks with at least 80 pass attempts this season, Newton is 16th in time in the pocket. He is 17th in attempts in less than 2.5 seconds, and sports a 114.4 passer rating on such throws.

In fact, among passers with at least 75 attempts, Newton is 28th in average intended air yards, at 7.4 air yards. On short passes (defined as 15 yards or less) Newton has completed 77% of his throws for a passer rating of 107.9.

I’ve now twice cited passer rating, a statistic I genuinely dislike. Norv Turner is scheming open receivers on these short throws, so Newton’s passer rating is the beneficiary. Still, Turner is the one scheming up the open receivers, so he has to get credit for that.

Newton’s interception rate is at a career low right now, and his TD rate is the highest it’s been since his MVP season.

7. Pittsburgh Steelers 5-2-1

We get Panthers Steelers on Thursday Night Football this week, so it should be fun. Roethlisberger is still more trustworthy than this new version of Cam Newton, but Pittsburgh’s defense is a real concern.

And I’m sure Steelers fans are thinking to themselves, “well if the Patriots have upside left, so do the Steelers because Bell hasn’t even played yet!” Is that intellectually honest, though? Will Bell be better than Conner has been when Bell touches the ball this year, or will it just be a push? What are the odds Bell is a downgrade in the beginning because he isn’t in game shape? What are the odds the Steelers just say “screw you” and sit him on the bench while he waits out getting to free agency?

8. Baltimore Ravens 4-5

Let the rioting commence! How could a 4-5 team be 8th?! Baltimore isn’t your typical 4-5 team and I find this notion Harbaugh could lose his job ridiculous. Baltimore is 6th in point differential, 10th in DVOA, and 12th in ELO rating. They’ve lost games to the Bengals, Saints, Panthers, and Steelers. In a vacuum none of those are shameful. Losing to Cleveland stings, but at least it was a divisional road game.

Things that won’t surprise you: Baltimore has a top 10 defense. Things that will surprise you: Baltimore is 13th in offensive DVOA.

The Ravens are 0-3 in one score games. They could easily have gone 3-0, 2-1, or 1-2. Their losses to New Orleans and Pittsburgh were by a combined 8 points. Baltimore could just as easily be 6-3 as they are 4-5 and no one thinks the 8th place ranking is insane, that Harbaugh should be fired, or is calling for Lamar Jackson to get thrown into the fire.

The Ravens remaining schedule is hosting Cincinnati, hosting Oakland, at Atlanta, at Kansas City, hosting Tampa, at the Clippers Chargers, and hosting Cleveland. I’m going to say they won’t lose another home game, getting them to a minimum of 8 wins on the year. 1-2 in their remaining road games (they’re all tough) gets this team to 9-7 and presumably right in the mix for a wildcard spot. 2-1 and they’re at 10-6 and probably in. 0-3 and I’m hoping ownership keeps Harbaugh around to oversee year 1 of the Lamar Jackson experience.

9. Minnesota Vikings 5-3-1

Minnesota is 14th in point differential, 16th in DVOA, 10th in ELO rating, and 8th in grading. This is the team I expect to win the North. The defense isn’t as good as it was last year, and the Bears sport a better defense thus far. But the difference between Trubisky and Cousins is too large to ignore. Cousins also has the best receiving duo in the league, while Trubisky, uh, doesn’t.

10. Chicago Bears 5-3

There’s nothing in the Bears statistical profile that can justify leaving them out of the top 10, so here they are. Chicago is 3rd in point differential, 4th in DVOA, 13th in ELO rating, and 5th at PFF. At least ELO is on my side I guess. So why aren’t the Bears higher?

They’ve run up the score on crap teams and Trubisky is awful. Chicago is +84 in their three games against the Bucs, Jets, and Bills. On the season the Bears at +82. Chicago has faced the 2nd easiest schedule through 9 weeks, and, yes, I know that DVOA accounts for strength of schedule but, maybe there is something to this? To be fair the Ravens ran up the score ten fold on the Bills week one, and Chicago is 1-2 in one score games which could easily be any other record.

The Bears rank 24th in variance, presumably because of the Trubisky rollercoaster. He’s 36th in PFF grading among QBs with at least 75 pass attempts. He has struggled mightily under pressure while being average at best when kept clean.

The Bears have some upside since Mack has missed a few games. They made the top ten in these power rankings and could be too low, but I don’t buy them as a top five team or better than anyone ahead of them. There’s teams I’ve placed below that I like better but decided to give Chicago credit for what they’ve accomplished thus far.

11. Philadelphia Eagles 4-4

Philly is 12th in point differential, 20th in DVOA, 6th in ELO rating, and 10th in grading. Kind of a mixed bag. The trenches continue to be a strength for the Eagles, as they’re top 10 in pass blocking, 1st in adjusted line yards, and 1st in pass rush grading.

12. Seattle Seahawks 4-4

Seattle ranks 11th in point differential, 9th in DVOA, and 11th in ELO rating. Before the season I said the decline of the Seahawks was overblown. Despite all the personnel losses, Seattle still ranks 5th in defensive DVOA.

The offense is significantly buoyed once again by Russell Wilson, but he is receiving better protection this year. Through eight games, Wilson has experienced 93 pressured dropbacks, 19th in the league (with 1st being the most instances). That is quite the decline from 2017 when Wilson lead the league with 271 pressured dropbacks. The next closest was Stafford at 230. It’s crazy what firing Tom Cable can do for your offensive line.

13. Houston Texans 6-3

Some genius once said not to get excited about the Texans after their victory over Dallas. What a moron. Houston is now 10th in point differential, 12th in DVOA, 16th in ELO rating, and 13th in grading. The team is currently on a six game winning streak.

The reason I said not to get excited about the Texans at the time is because all of those marks were bad at the time of writing. I then explicitly said that their upcoming games were against terrible quarterbacks so perhaps they could rack up wins to stay in the playoff hunt.

Well, here we are. The Texans are in the division lead and their performance indicators are greatly improved. The offensive line is still struggling, which is never good, but the real stories are Watson and Watt (shocking, I know).

Watson has had some poor performances. He looked lost week 1 against the Patriots, posted a 13.5 QBR against the Bills (Houston still won), and struggled against Jacksonville. But he has been solid or sometimes awesome in the other six games. Watson’s career will likely always have some ups and downs to it on a game by game basis, but it’s nice to see him doing well after his rookie campaign was cut short.

As for Watt, he’s awesome again. He’s getting an elite grade at the moment. He’s top five in pass rush and top ten in run defense among edge defenders. He has the 7th most pressure in the entire league, regardless of position. It’s also nice to see Watt back to wreaking havoc after all the injuries he has endured.

14. Atlanta Falcons 4-4

Atlanta is really battling the odds to get back into the playoff race after their 1-3 start. They’ve won three straight, and have a road date with the Browns on Sunday. Atlanta is up to 9th in ELO rating and T-14th in grading. They’re lacking in point differential and DVOA, but consider they are 2-3 in one score games. They could be any possible record in those five games, but even if they just went 3-2 they’d be 5-3 halfway through the season with people conjuring up think-pieces on if the Falcons can be the first team to make the Super Bowl as the host city.

15. Indianapolis Colts 3-5

The Colts are getting overlooked. They’re 13th in point differential, 15th in DVOA, 24th in ELO rating, and 12th in grading. 15th may seem weird for a 3-5 team, but they’re performing better than that and are 0-3 in one score games. If they go just 1-2 in those games they’re .500 and this ranking doesn’t seem ridiculous.

16. Cincinnati Bengals 5-3

I’ve talked before about how the Bengals are true playoff contenders. They’re 22nd in point differential, 17th in DVOA, 15th in ELO rating, and T-14th in grading. The A.J. Green injury is killer as he is expected to miss at least two games. The Bengals next two games? Hosting New Orleans and traveling to Baltimore.

17. Green Bay Packers 3-4-1

Look, Green bay is 20th in point differential, 13th in DVOA, 21st in ELO rating, and 9th in grading. Based on that plus Aaron Rodgers I’d like to have them higher, but there is just something not right here. It could be the constant in and out movement of receivers due to injuries. The issues of HaHa being traded away have yet to be realized.

But it’s probably the fact Mike McCarthy is still the coach of this team. I guess he sort of realized lately to give Aaron Jones more carries, but it took way too long. The defense is 24th in DVOA despite having a top ten coverage unit (which only figures to worsen with Clinton-Dix gone).

I’m probably getting too personal here because I’m just sick and tired of Aaron Rodgers being wasted away, but here we are. Put Green Bay up at 13th or anywhere from there to here and I won’t argue.

#FreeRodgers

18. Denver Broncos 3-6

Denver comes in at 18 in these power rankings, and the next few teams are Dallas, Jacksonville, Tennessee, and Washington. Honestly, think of these five as a tier and order them however you’d like.

Denver is actually 8th in DVOA believe it or not. They’re 18th in point differential, 25th in ELO rating, and 6th in grading. Maybe I have them too low on them. They’re 2-4 in one score games, so they could easily be 4-5 or 5-4 on the season.

They kept it close in Kansas City, but Denver is a negative eight on the season and blew out the Cardinals by 35 points. You do the math.

19. Tennessee Titans 4-4

I’m admittedly falling to horrible recency bias in putting the Titans second in this tier, but I think there is a lot to take away from their last two games. They basically played the Chargers to a draw but lost because they were aggressive in going for two at the end of the game. I like the aggression, it just didn’t work out.

They then went into Dallas and won by two touchdowns. Dion Lewis finally had some space to operate and looked like his 2017 form in spurts. Mariota’s QBR against Dallas was 70.3 (it was 75.1 against Los Angeles).

There is also confirmation bias here, as I picked Tennessee to win the South before the season. I think they are building here, and the best is yet to come. Their next game is against the Patriots, so they will probably be 4-5 come 4pm Sunday afternoon, before two divisional road games. It’s not an easy stretch, and they could be 4-7 in no time, making me look like a fool. That’s fine, I’ll look like a fool but stick to my guns.

20. Washington 5-3

Washington now has a negative point differential on the year and just got smacked by Atlanta at home. Apparently 2017 Alex Smith was a one year thing, which makes more sense than Alex Smith all of a sudden becoming a brand new player. Jordan Reed looks slow. Injuries to the offensive line are mounting.

21. Dallas Cowboys 3-5

I said order five teams anyway you like, so here is my argument why the Cowboys deserve to be ahead of the Jaguars. Dallas bests Jacksonville in point differential, ELO rating, and grading. They have the better quarterback, regardless of what you think of Dak. The Jaguars have more upside due to the elite potential of the defense, but there seems to be more internal combustion happening in Florida.

22. Jacksonville Jaguars 3-5

The Jaguars’ defense is still 6th in DVOA this year. On the flip side, they’re 28th in offense. Perhaps the return of Fournette will provide a boost. The unreal duo of Ramsey and Bouye have not been unreal this season. They could still end up improving, so there is hope. Josh Walker is the starting left tackle.

23. Miami Dolphins 5-4

24. New York Jets 3-6

The Dolphins have the edge in DVOA and ELO, while the Jets fair better in point differential and grading. The indicator with the largest discrepancy is DVOA, as the two teams are 9 spots apart. Miami is -38 this year to the Jets -15, but the Patriots murdered the Dolphins by 31 points. For what it’s worth, Miami just won a home game against the Jets.

25. Detroit Lions 3-5

The Lions admitted they’re looking to the future by trading away Golden Tate. Yes, they brought in Snacks, but they’re 3-5 and last in their division. They’re eyeing the long game.

26. Tampa Bay Buccaneers 3-5

Weapons galore and zero quarterbacks they trust. What’s the over/under for when Koetter gets fired?

27. San Francisco 49ers 2-7

You don’t need me to tell you they got screwed with the Jimmy injury. You also don’t need me to tell you Nick Mullens is a God so no excuses!

28. Cleveland Browns 2-6-1

I almost ranked them #1 because they fired Hue Jackson, Mr. “Nothing is My Fault.”

29. New York Giants 1-7

How much “we can compete with Eli for 3-4 years” garbage did we have to intake leading up to the draft only for Gettleman to turn around after seven games and host a fire sale?

30. Arizona Cardinals 2-6

They’re worse than every team above them and better than Oakland and Buffalo.

#Analysis

31. Oakland Raiders 1-7

I so badly want to rank them last in these power rankings. What a disastrous start to the Gruden era. This team has quit, without a doubt. You don’t lose 34-3 against Nick Fucking Mullens if you’re trying.

32. Buffalo Bills 2-7

But Buffalo is utter garbage. Their defense is 2nd in DVOA, so there’s that. Yet they’re still last in point differential at -145. -145! Through 9 games! Last year the Giants were 31st at -142 after the entire season.

Buffalo hasn’t scored at least 10 points in SIX of their nine games. How is that even possible? The NFL is just handing out yards and points these days. How does a team score in the single digits in 66% of their games? They have 29 points COMBINED in those 6 games. There’s five teams in the NFL right now AVERAGING more than 29 points per game.

Buffalo has 96 points this year. If we’re generous and round up that’s 14 touchdowns. 17 quarterbacks have thrown for more than 14 touchdowns so far. TODD GURLEY HAS 16 TOTAL TOUCHDOWNS SO FAR. Todd Gurley is *literally* better than the Bills offense. Kareem Hunt has 13 touchdowns, and remember we were nice and rounded up from 13.7 to 14 for Buffalo. Alvin Kamara has 12 touchdowns in one fewer game played than the Bills.

What in the world do you think the point spread is going to be for the week 16 Patriots Bills game in New England?

filed under: NFL

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *