Welcome to the latest edition of Too Calm Tuesday – Everybody Chill. This space is a weekly column, after overreaction Monday, to tell everyone to chill out. The same risk applies to a scorching hot take in this section as well, remaining so calm could lead us to be wrong because we aren’t quick enough to realize that a trend is just the new reality. No one bats 1,000, but we’re going to try while hopefully easing some nerves. Welcome to Too Calm Tuesday – Everybody Chill 10/9.
Fly Eagles Fly
I understand it can be frustrating coming off consecutive loses by three points or less, against two teams you probably feel you should have beaten given the quality (Titans) or location (Vikings at home). Each game Philadelphia has played this season has been within six points, meaning the Eagles are 2-3 in one score contests. They could easily be anywhere from 0-5 to 5-0, but find themselves at 2-3 after a home loss to the Vikings.
And it probably doesn’t matter at all. Last week I talked about how if you are strong in the right areas then the floor of your team is rather high. The core four areas are quarterback, offensive line, defensive line, and the secondary. The Eagles won Super Bowl LII by having all four of those areas as strengths. All four of those areas are still strengths.
Carson Wentz, to date, is 12th in grading at the QB position and 12th in ANY/A. Ahead of him in both categories is Ryan Fitzpatrick, who was benched for Jameis Winston, so you could convince yourself Wentz is really top 11 in each category. Wentz has been fine, above-average even. If you want narrative analysis he should be incrementally better each week of the season as he gets further removed from his injury and brushes off more rust.
Unsurprisingly, the Eagles are 5th in pass protection grading. Peters is performing fine for a 36 year old off a torn achilles, and the other four up front are doing a fine job as well. Wentz and Foles, combined, have enjoyed 151 clean drop backs this year, which is the exact amount Drew Brees has enjoyed in 2018, a mark that ranks 6th in the league.
(Admittedly I am massaging the numbers here. Those 151 clean drop backs are on 230 total drop backs, a rate of 65.6% clean, which would rank 26th in the league. However, the Vikings racked up 16 pressures on 42 drop backs on Sunday, a pressure rate of 38%, which is quite high. It would be better, obviously, had the Eagles not allowed such a high pressure rate, but considering the opponent it is somewhat excusable)
On the flip side of the trenches the Eagles are still generating a ton of pressure, as they have the 2nd highest pass rush grade as a unit, behind only the Rams. Fletcher Cox and Brandon Graham remain the NFL’s best inside & edge pass rush duo in the NFL. For Cox specifically, he is the best interior defender alive this side of Aaron Donald. With Chris Long, Michael Bennett, and Derek Barnett also providing pass rush production on a rotating basis, the Eagles figure to remain good in this area as well.
For what it’s worth, the Eagles defensive line was also first in adjusted line yards heading into week 5.
However, the problem for Philadelphia so far this season has been their coverage, although it hasn’t been disastrous or anything. Jalen Mills has had an, uh, up and down career, and he is down right now. Ronald Darby is also currently posting his worst season as a professional. Darby, though, is the beacon for hope. If he can get back to how well he played in 2016/2018, then the Eagles should be able to move back into an above average coverage unit.
Right now no one is running away with the NFC East, so Philadelphia doesn’t have a ton of ground to make up. The one issue, however, is the Eagles’ schedule for the rest of the season. Philadelphia has yet to play a divisional game, meaning 6 of the team’s last 11 games will be in the division. Those matchups start this Thursday as the Eagles will travel to New York to play the Giants.
If Barkley doesn’t play the Giants probably have no chance, but the whole point is you just never know with divisional road games, especially on a short week. After the Giants, the Eagles are hosting the Panthers, Jaguars, and Cowboys, then travel to the Saints, are back home to host the Giants and Washington, and then are at the Cowboys and at the Rams. They finish out the year by hosting the Texans before playing Washington on the road. That is murderous.
Again, no one has run away with the division through five weeks, and the Eagles still remain the division’s best team, so in theory they are perfectly fine, despite the gauntlet they face the rest of the season.
Houston Texans
I know the Texans pulled out a nice victory over a solid Dallas team, and similar to the NFC East no one is running away with the AFC South, but Houston is not going to be in the playoff mix this year.
The main reason is that this offensive line is still atrocious. Dallas defenders racked up 27 (27!) total pressures on Sunday night. Houston’s offensive line is tied for 25th in pass block grading after week 5, and they were 28th in adjusted sack rate after week 4. In case you’re wondering, the unit is 31st in run block grading.
The team also grades out as 30th in coverage. Houston has had four corners play at least 65 snaps this season and none of them are playing well. They are getting decent play from the safety position, but if Watt, Clowney, and Mercilus can’t get to the quarterback quickly enough, quarterbacks are going to knife through this coverage.
Luckily for the Texans the next four quarterbacks the team faces are Josh Allen, Blake Bortles, Ryan Tannehill, and Case Keenum. Maybe they will hang around a little longer, but as long as the offensive line is a turnstile and the coverage a muleta, Houston will not be playoff bound. If we are staying with the theory that you need to be strong in the right four places, the Texans possess a 50% success rate against that criteria.
Baltimore Ravens
I get that it might be disheartening to lose a game to the Browns after a 3-1 start, but this is a new era in Cleveland. It also cannot be overstated enough that divisional road games are just tough to win, no matter the opponent.
Flacco had a terrible day, posting a 21.3 QBR. We knew Flacco was prone to terrible days, so this isn’t surprising, it’s just a part of the deal.
Despite the loss to Cleveland, Baltimore still has the best point differential in the AFC. Better than New England, and better than Kansas City. The Ravens have already banked a road win against the Steelers.
The schedule isn’t doing them any favors, as their next five games are in Tennessee, against New Orleans, in Carolina, against Pittsburgh, and against Cincinnati. They then finish out in Atlanta, in Kansas City, against Tampa, in Los Angeles (Chargers), and finally hosting Cleveland. I’m no statistician, but barring something weird it’s probably like 80% Baltimore finishes in the 9-7 to 11-5 range, depending on how good they really are.
Either way, they will be in the playoff hunt all the way through the end of the season.
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