Too Calm Tuesday – Everybody Chill 10/2

Welcome to the latest edition of Too Calm Tuesday – Everybody Chill.  This space is a weekly column, after overreaction Monday, to tell everyone to chill out.  The same risk applies to a scorching hot take in this section as well, remaining so calm could lead us to be wrong because we aren’t quick enough to realize that a trend is just the new reality.  No one bats 1,000, but we’re going to try while hopefully easing some nerves.  Welcome to Too Calm Tuesday – Everybody Chill 10/2.

Pittsburgh Steelers

A quick rundown of the Steelers schedule thus far: Tied the Browns, lost the Chiefs at home, won in Tampa, lost to the Ravens at home.  Not very reassuring, though there is no shame in losing to the Chiefs or a division rival.

Roethlisberger has also just been bad.  Among players with at least 50 pass attempts this season, Big Ben ranks 28th in adjusted completion percentage (Adjusted Completion Percentage – the % of aimed passes thrown on target (completions + drops / aimed)).  He currently grades quite poorly over at ProFootballFocus, behind guys like Flacco, Eli, Derek Carr, Case Keenum, and Nick Foles.  So far Ben has connected on only 6 of his 26 deep pass attempts, defined as passes targeted 20+ yards downfield.

But there is reason for optimism.  For starters, some metrics paint Roethlisberger as perfectly fine so far.  He currently ranks 14th in ANY/A, and 15th in QBR.  What might be the most encouraging, however, is how well the Steelers offensive line is blocking for Roethlisberger.  No one in the league has enjoyed more clean pocket drop backs than Ben, and among quarterbacks with at least 50 total drop backs this season, Roethlisberger is being kept clean at the 6th highest rate in the league.

The reason this is relevant is because the most predictive stat we have for future quarterback performance is how well someone passes from a clean pocket.  Thus far, Roethlisberger has been below average in this category through the first four games, but I’d have to imagine this will even out.  Over the past few seasons Ben’s passer rating from a clean pocket hovers around 103, and through the first four games it’s sitting at 93.0.  For what it’s worth, Ben has the second most passing yards this season from a clean pocket, behind only Jared Goff.

And haven’t we seen this before?  Last season Pittsburgh and Ben bottomed out in week 5 against Jacksonville, as Ben threw 5 interceptions and the Steelers dropped to 3-2.  Yes, 1-2-1 is worse than 3-2, but maybe the Steelers are now joining the Patriots as perennial AFC contenders that lollygag their way through September before deciding to, like, try.  Bell is reportedly coming back during the bye week, so it’s not yet time to panic in Pittsburgh.

Mitchell Trubisky

Raise your hand if you busted out your anointing oil after Trubisky’s outrageous performance against Tampa Bay.  This performance really fits the narrative that was surrounding Trubisky entering the season, so it’s easy to see his 6 touchdowns and depict this as the moment he is turning the corner.

Trubisky was supposed to be this year’s Goff.  All the similarities were there: Old school coach fired for a modern, creative offensive mind.  Plenty of weapons were brought in during the offseason.  Each player had a disastrous rookie campaign.  And this performance really helps confirm that people were right to think Trubisky would run along the same trajectory.

Want to know how good this performance was?  Trubisky’s QBR against the Bucs was a bodacious 98.9.  Since 1950, among players that have thrown at least 20 pass attempts in a game, Trubisky had the 15th best game *ever* in terms of adjusted yards per pass attempt.  What happened Sunday really, truly was just that good.

But let’s keep things in perspective.  Trubisky has just as many games this season with a QBR under 30 as he does a QBR over 50.  Sunday marked the 16th game in Trubisky’s career in which he has made an appearance.  Of those 16 games, he has posted a QBR under 30 seven times.  That’s almost half.  If we push the threshold up to under 42, that accounts for 10 of his 16 games.  Yikes.

Trubisky could turn his career around, and Goff himself is exhibit A, B, C, D, and E as to why you don’t give up on someone after their rookie year.  But the really bad far outpaces the average to exceptional for Trubisky, so let’s at least be cautiously optimistic moving forward.

Detroit Lions

Here is a quick rundown of the Lions schedule thus far: Embarrassed in the season opener against the Jets, lost by three on the road to the 9ers, crushed the Patriots, lost by two on the road to the Cowboys.  They sit at 1-3, with two road losses of three points or less.  If they go 1-1 in those games they’re 2-2 and I’m not writing about them, and if they go 2-0 in those games they’re 3-1 and I’m telling you not to drink the kool-aid.

Detroit is 1-3 with a negative 20 point differential.  It’s not that you should just completely ignore a team getting trounced at home by 31 points to a bad team, but if you do throw out the Jets game, the Lions have a plus 11 margin over three games.  What seems more likely to you, that Detroit is 31 points worse than the Jets, or Detroit is a team that plays at an 8-8, 9-7 level?

In 2017 Detroit went 9-7 with a +34 point differential.  In 2016 Detroit went 9-7 with a -12 point differential.  In 2014 Detroit went 11-5 with a +39 point differential (9.2 pythagorean win expectation (see 2017)).

Outside of the pass rush department, the Lions are just kind of average or below average in every other category.  Similar to the good news about Roethlisberger, Stafford is enjoying a ton of clean pockets, as 73.7% of the time he is kept clean.  Stafford has thrown for the 6th most yards from a clean pocket and has already experienced 7 drops on such pass attempts (Roethlisberger has only suffered 3 drops).

The issue, however, is the Lions schedule.  Their next eight games are against Green Bay, at Miami, against Seattle, at Minnesota, at Chicago, against Carolina, against Chicago, and against Los Angeles (Rams).  They get the Cardinals and Bills, both on the road, before closing out by hosting Minnesota and traveling to Green Bay.  Woof.

Odell Beckham Jr.

I live in the greater New York area, so if I wanted to I could subject myself to a lot of New York media/radio involving fans calling in to scream about the Giants.  I choose not to do this, but through others this information reaches me anyway.  I’ve come to learn everyone is freaking out that Beckham “hasn’t done anything” this year.

Beckham does join Julio Jones as the only receivers to thus far amass at least 300 yards receiving but have yet to score a touchdown.  Also, Giants fans probably (rightfully) expect more than 16th in the NFL in receiving yards from OBJ.

Yea, well, maybe Giants fans should have clamored harder for the New York brain trust to take a quarterback second instead of a running back and not falling in love with the shiny object.  Take it up with Eli.

Eli has struggled passing more than 20 yards downfield this season, completing only 4 passes on 17 attempts, and none of them has been dropped.  That gives him an adjusted completion percentage of dead last in the NFL among quarterbacks that have attempted at least 10 deep passes through four weeks.

You may be shocked by this, but Manning has been terrible under pressure.  His PFF grade when pressured is, uh, not good, and he has been sacked 15 times on 51 pressured drop backs.  Not all of them are on him, but that 29.4% sack rate on pressured drop backs is the 5th highest in the league among quarterbacks with at least 50 total drop backs.

Beckham has yet to drop a pass this year.  OBJ has 43 targets through the first four games, and only him, DeAndre Hopkins, and Stefon Diggs haven’t dropped a pass among players with at least 39 targets.  You also might be interested in knowing that Beckham leads the league in avoided tackles after reception with 12.

Don’t worry about Beckham, worry about the guy throwing him the ball.

filed under: NFL

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