The draft is upon us. This may not be a loaded quarterback class, or rich in top end talent, but this draft offers plenty of intrigue. There seems to be no consensus. Even at the drafts’ deepest positions – running back, edge, defensive tackle – after the top guy everyone has the rest of the class ranked in a different order.
Here’s somethings I think I know ahead of the draft, regardless of how accurate my pick-by-pick projections end up being.
-There won’t be many first round trades. I’ve said it over and over (and so has the media), but in a flat draft there’s no real incentive for teams to move up. There could be a flurry of activity late in the first with the Browns, Giants, and Saints jockeying for position to take their preferred quarterback from the second wave of prospects. Still, I’d take the under on 3.5.
-That said, the teams most likely to move down are Atlanta, Pittsburgh, Minnesota, Los Angeles (Rams), and Washington. Atlanta only has five picks and their primary targets figure to be along the defensive line where they can easily move down and get the same caliber player later on as they can at 15. Minnesota has only four picks and sit right in front of the offensive line starved Texans. Also at 24 they are a prime target for Cleveland or New York to come up for a quarterback. The Rams and Commanders are both light on picks (Los Angeles doesn’t select in between 26 and 90, thought they do have eight picks in total, while Washington only has five picks) and have general managers with a demonstrated willingness to make deals.
-The teams most likely to move up fit into two buckets; quarterback needy and “has a lot of picks and a team need at a shallow position in the draft. The teams in the first bucket are obvious: Cleveland, New York, and New Orleans. The second bucket includes San Francisco, Miami, Los Angeles (Chargers), Houston, Baltimore, Buffalo (they have plenty of needs but they have 10 picks and 10 rookies aren’t making this roster), Kansas City, and Philadelphia (they have 20 picks over the next two drafts). Specifically for the 9ers and Dolphins, if one of the two tackles gets past the Jets at seven I can see Carolina trading down to 11 or 13 considering they need as many picks as they can get and they can easily take an edge three or five picks later.
-Positional value may be thrown out the window for a lot of teams in this draft. Given the fact nearly everyone after Hunter, Carter, and Jeanty have question marks, teams may opt for a “cleaner/safer” prospect at less important positions as opposed to taking a gamble elsewhere. Ryan Poles has a demonstrated history of using his premium draft capital on premium positions, but the Bears look primed to take a tight end at 10. Why roll the dice on a pass rusher with question marks (especially when you can get a good one in the second round) when Tyler Warren is a much cleaner prospect to project to the league. This is also a bad interior offensive line class, so they may go flying off the board late round one into early round two because teams know they can circle back on defensive lineman later in the draft. It’s not impossible that that a running back and two tight ends go in the top 10.
-Will Johnson will not be a top 11 pick. In the last 10 drafts (2015-2024) the slowest 40 time clocked by a corner in the top 10 was 4.48. Push that out to the top 11 and we get a 4.50. We don’t have a 40 time on Will Johnson but the word is he declined to run at his private workout because he was consistently running between 4.58 and 4.62 while training. Considering the biggest question surrounding him is his long speed, if he was going to break 4.50 he would have showcased it.
Anyway, thanks for putting up with my brain dump before getting to the good stuff. Hope you enjoy the read and of course I hope you enjoy the draft!
#1 Tennessee Titans – QB Cam Ward, Miami
I don’t want to spend time explaining this since everyone knows it’s happening. Instead I’ll just say that I agree that this is the correct decision. As tempting as Hunter and Carter are, you can’t bypass on a chance to shoot your shot on a quarterback. I think the perception of Cam Ward’s prospect quality has been dragged down due to the constant refrain of “this is a bad quarterback class.” The class isn’t great, no, but Ward is a talented enough prospect that he warrants the number one pick in a draft.
It’s tempting to say the Titans should trade this pick and kick the can on taking a quarterback until next year when it’s supposed to be a better class. The problem is 1. There’s no guarantee Tennessee will be drafting high enough to take one (though maybe Will Levis just guarantees you a top five pick). 2. There’s no guarantee anyone next year will be worthy a top five selection. 3. If your own draft pick isn’t high enough to select an elite prospect, there’s no guarantee the teams picking that high will be willing to trade the pick.
On the last point, the Titans are proving that to be true this year. Both the Browns and (much more so) the Giants have inquired about trading up to one, but Tennessee is refusing to move the pick. New York won a meaningless game against the Colts and lost control of having the number one pick. The quarterback desperate Titans sit atop the draft board and ultimately decided that “ok, yea, Ward isn’t Caleb, Jayden, or Maye but he’s good and we like him and we’re just going to stick and pick.”
This has no happened to the Giants in consecutive drafts. Joe Schoen trying to trade up with the Patriots last year to get Drake Maye is literally on film via Hard Knocks. I have no idea what New York offered New England, but the Patriots said, on recording, “we’re just going to stick and take our quarterback.”
Teams picking at the very top of the draft are probably their because they need a quarterback. If the Browns, Giants, Jets, Saints, and Panthers pick above Tennessee next year, do you think any of them are going to bypass their chance at a quarterback just because the Titans stocked up on future draft capital in 2025 to trade up in 2026? No. They won’t care. Just like Tennessee doesn’t care this year and just like New England didn’t care last year.
#2 Cleveland Browns – WR/CB Travis Hunter, Colorado
Another pick I don’t want to take a ton of time explaining as the writing seems to be on the wall. Vegas has moved the odds Cleveland takes Hunter to -1000, if you’re into that sort of thing.
#3 New York Giants – Edge Abdul Carter, Penn State
This explanation is more that New York isn’t going to take a quarterback at three. The caveat is that John Mara could just walk into the war room on draft night and say “think of the jersey sales if we take Shedeur” and then that’s that. But Dianna Russini is reporting the organization is operating in “lock-step,” and both her and Art Stapleton are maintaining that this late blitzkrieg of private quarterback workouts was always a part of the plan, really has more to do with due diligence and who they’re going to take later, and that the sense around the team is they’re taking Carter and not a signal caller.
#4 New England Patriots – OT Will Campbell, LSU
Another short explanation. I’d imagine the finalists are Campbell, Membou, Jeanty, and Graham. I wouldn’t be shocked by any, though I’d be surprised by Jeanty. However, protecting Drake Maye is imperative to the long-term success of this franchise, as well as Mike Vrabel and Eliot Wolf’s job security. Vrabel openly said he views Campbell as a tackle since “you can just watch him play left tackle on film against good guys that are going to get drafted.” Campbell is also the “nastier” blocker between him and Membou, already plays the left side, has an incredible football IQ, and is more of the culture setter/team (or at least OL) leader that you’d figure Vrabel will gravitate toward. Campbell has also moved to -1000 to be the 4th pick, if you’re into that sort of thing.
I still think there’s a non-zero chance the Bears trade up to four to secure Jeanty.
#5 Jacksonville Jaguars – RB Ashton Jeanty, Boise State
For the longest time Mason Graham was the universal selection here. It made sense. The Jaguars defense was bad last year, he (at the time at least) is viewed as the second best defender in the draft (Hunter is his own category), Gladstone spent years watching Aaron Donald dominate with a smaller frame, and Gladstone had a big hand in the Rams drafting Fiske and Turner, shorter-armed interior defenders. But it was always just logic, and it wasn’t based on reporting.
Now we have reporting. In the unrelenting barrage of information that has come out since Monday, one thing has been consistent: Jacksonville is going to take an offensive skill player at five. The two names mentioned are Jeanty and McMillan. McMillan makes sense since Coen can use him like he did Evans and Trevor Lawrence excelled at Clemson with Tee Higgins and Justyn Ross, two towering receivers.
I won’t be shocked if the pick is McMillan, but I’m going with Jeanty. One, the information world seems to have coalesced around Jeanty being the pick here over Tet as Daniel Jeremiah, Todd McShay, Peter Schrager, Matt Millen, and ESPN Jaguars beat reporter Mike DiRocco are all projecting Jeanty to the Jaguars. Ian Rapoport also did a TV bite on Wednesday saying Gladstone and the Jaguars were going to be “bold” in his first draft as GM. The comment was related to the team attempting to trade up to number two for Travis Hunter, but the sentiment still stands they will be bold. Finally, in Dianna Russini’s last “What I’m Hearing” installment on Wednesday she said she “was told the Jaguars are hoping to keep this draft ‘electric’ with the first-year random of coach Liam Coen and GM James Gladstone.” With all due respect to Mr. McMillan, Jeanty is the one that brings the electricity.
I also wanted this on record: Ben Devine said it “sounds like Bears have a trade agreement in place. Source says a tentative deal was hammered our yesterday afternoon.” The top reply on his tweet specifically asks about the Patriots and he says it’s not them (crying face emoji). So I’d say the deal is with Jacksonville and Chicago sends 10 and 39 for 5, the Bears take Jeanty and then the Jaguars (who make sure they stay in front of Dallas in this trade) take McMillan at 10.
#6 Las Vegas Raiders – OT Armand Membou, Missouri
With Jeanty off the board I keep coming back to Spytek openly talking about how you need to think in terms of what the player combination is that you’re getting with your first two picks. He specifically brought up his time in Cleveland in 2010 and how with the 7th pick they were targeting a safety (Eric Berry) and a corner (Joe Haden). He explained how the organization thought through “if we take a corner at seven, what kind of safety are we looking at in the second round, and if we take a safety at seven, what kind of safety are we looking at in the second round?”
Eric Berry ended up going five to the Chiefs that year so the Browns just sat there and took Haden, but the strategy remains. Applying it to the 6th pick in 2025, the question becomes if we take Mason Graham at six (who I do think they will strongly consider), what kind of tackle are we looking at in the second round, and if we take Membou at six what kind of defensive tackle (or edge, corner, running back) are we getting in the second round? If Vegas takes Graham, there’s a high probability all of the second wave tackles (Banks, Simmons, Conerly) will be gone given how tackles get pushed up the board due to simple supply and demand and starting at pick 21 the Steelers, Packers, Texans, Rams, Chiefs, and Eagles could all realistically select a tackle. Defensive tackle (and edge and running back) are all either extremely or historically deep.
Then you look at the starters. DJ Glaze was serviceable in his rookie year, but he’s a third round pick that this regime didn’t have a hand in selecting. In addition, long-time mainstay Kolton Miller is in the midsts of a contract dispute with the team coming off an up-and-down injured season while heading into the final of his deal. Membou could be an immediate upgrade at right tackle while also serving as an insurance policy should Miller move on in 2026 and the team wants to flip Membou to the left side. And for whatever it’s worth (probably zero) Pete Carroll’s first ever draft pick in Seattle was an offensive tackle picked sixth overall.
The final thing I’ll leave you with is in 2020, while Spytek was with Tampa, the team signed -checks notes- Raiders minority owner Tom Brady and then drafted -checks notes- right tackle Tristan Wirfs in the first round, who eventually transitioned over to left tackle. [shrugging emoji]
It has become very popular to put Banks here in the final hours. It seems to be driven by a “culture” fit and that the media is finding out they were very wrong about where the NFL viewed Banks. I’m sticking with Membou though as the best thing this team can do is sign Miller long-term and start Membou at right tackle.
#7 New York Jets – TE Tyler Warren, Penn State
This is really difficult. When I initially wrote up my final mock I had Mason Graham. It makes sense. He could easily be the best player on their board, he has better positional value than a tight end, and pairing him with Quinnen Williams would create a nightmare tandem for opposing offenses. I’m assuming Aaron Glenn watched the Super Bowl like the rest of us and saw Philadelphia’s interior destroy any hope Kansas City had of winning that game.
But I can’t find any reporting that they’ll take Graham. Maybe this is a blind spot of mine when arriving at my final projections and I should stick with my gut more. It cost me dearly in 2022, specifically with the Jets. However, it’s hard to ignore the chorus here. The New York-Warren connection has been well established for awhile and the interest is real, even if they ultimately go in another direction. Rich Cimini’s reporting this morning was basically “hey, I wouldn’t be shocked if they took Graham (or Walker) if they have one graded just that much higher, but it’d be a little surprising if they didn’t go offense.”
He specifically mentions Warren, Membou, and Banks. Banks is the hottest name in Draft Land right now and he’s VERY heavily being paired with the Raiders at six, and to a lesser extent New York at seven (including by Cimini). Those that put him at seven (over Membou sometimes) mention his left tackle ability, which is a premium position. I’m not trying to pick and choose when I believe Cimini but New York just took Olu last year, why would Banks’ left tackle ability be the tie breaker? He’s not the only one that brings it up, but it sort of sounds more like something the team wants out there to catch Chicago’s attention.
Dianna Russini mentions the Jets’ interest in Warren in her final “What I’m Hearing,” Peter Schrager, Ben Allbright and Josh Norris have New York bypassing Graham for Warren, while Mike Band has the team bypassing Graham (but in his version it’s for Membou).
#8 Carolina Panthers – LB Jalon Walker, Georgia
Carolina is locked in on a defender, and even then it seems to be one of the Georgia boys (Walker and Mykel Williams), though if Graham gets here that could change things. Walker may not be a true edge and will mostly be an off-ball linebacker, but Panthers’ general manager Dan Morgan was an off-ball linebacker selected with the 11th pick of the draft and I’m assuming he thinks that he was worth that selection. Beyond Walker’s talent and immense upside, the chorus out of Athens is that Walker was the alpha of alphas and you’re not just getting on field impact but what he brings to the locker room as a leader is the exact type of culture setting you want out of a top 10 pick.
#9 New Orleans Saints – Edge Mykel Williams, Georgia
No, I do not believe New Orleans is going to take a quarterback at nine. I do believe they’ll be pretty aggressive moving up from 40 into the 20s to get Shedeur or Dart (or Shough I guess), but they’re going to draft their highest graded player here.
So who are they going to have graded highest? Mickey Loomis has (inexplicably) been the general manager of the Saints since 2002. This provides us an incredible track record of his work to help inform us of how he may go about his business in the future. Since 2002, here is how many first and second round selections Loomis has made at each position:
| First Round | Second Round | |
| QB |
0 |
0 |
| RB |
2 |
0 |
| WR |
4 |
2 |
| TE |
0 |
0 |
| OT |
5 |
2 |
| OG |
1 |
1 |
| C |
0 |
1 |
| DE |
5 |
2 |
| DT |
4 |
0 |
| LB |
1 |
3 |
| CB |
2* |
4 |
| S |
2 |
5 |
WR, OT, DE (Edge), and DT make up 18 of the 26 first round picks Loomis has made in the last 23 years. No other position has more than two*, while WR, OT, DE, and DT all have four or five. (Corner is either 2 or 3, and safety 2 or 1, depending on what you consider Malcolm Jenkins at the time they drafted him).
I think the finalists for this selection are Mason Graham, Shemar Stewart, Mykel Williams, and Kelvin Banks Jr. If you’re pressing me to narrow it down to two I’m going with Williams and Graham. I don’t want to make too much of the fact Loomis has gone pass rusher five times vs. defensive tackle four times but, hey, the data is the data. It’s sort of odd to think of them adding another rusher though. Cam Jordan isn’t the hang up (is he really going to be on the roster in 2026?), it’s the presence of Carl Granderson and Chase Young, the latter of which the team just handed a brand new three year contract, which their earliest possible out being after two seasons. They have a much more pressing need at defensive tackle.
However, too many people have this as Mykel Williams to ignore. He fits what Loomis has drafted before and was my runner up on Monday. Now it seems like the Mykel projection is tied to information as DJ, Allbright, McShay, Schrager, and Matt Miller have this pick as Williams. My hang up is not all of them have it that Williams and Graham are available, and Katherine Terrell does have the Saints selecting Graham over Mykel in the ESPN beat writer mock. I should probably just default to what she’s saying, but Loomis is an athletic traits guy when it comes to his first round picks, and while Mykel is considered a freak (despite his lack of pre-draft testing) it seems like Graham’s fall down the board is tied to his smaller frame, shorter arm length, and the fact he didn’t work out for teams prior to the draft.
Real quick on Banks: offensive tackle is tied with edge for the position Loomis has taken the most over the years. With Ramczyk’s retirement the team and New Orleans declining Penning’s 5th year option the team may view tackle/offensive line as too big a need to ignore and simply take Banks and kick either him or (more likely) Taliese Fuaga inside to guard before Banks and Fuaga end up as the starting tackles in 2026.
The other piece of the puzzle that may push the Saints to go Banks is that typically speaking when a team takes a first round quarterback they spent their next pick on someone to help support that quarterback (OL, WR, and TE to a lesser extent). If I’m right and New Orleans takes a non-quarterback here with the plan being getting aggressive to move up later and take one in the 20’s, it’s not far fetch the Saints could implement this strategy in reverse. Take a wide receiver or offensive tackle at nine to help support Shedeur or Dart (or Shough I guess).
#10 Chicago Bears – OT Kelvin Banks Jr., Texas
Since taking over in Chicago Poles spent his initial draft pick with the franchise on a corner (Gordon in the second), and his subsequent three first rounders on an offensive tackle (Darnell Wright), quarterback (Caleb Williams), and wide receiver (Rome Odunze). He has also traded away a second round pick for a wide receiver (Chase Claypool) and another second rounder for a pass rusher (Montez Sweat). When he selected Wright he traded down from nine to 10, forfeiting the opportunity to draft Jalen Carter, a defensive tackle.
Moral of the story, Poles spends his premium draft capital on premium positions. Much is made about how well Warren would fit with Ben Johnson since Johnson runs a lot of 12 personnel, and I’d like to point out how creative Johnson was in Detroit running trick plays that featured things like passes to Jared Goff and Penei Sewell becoming a receiver. While at Penn State Warren took 40 wildcat snaps last year, rushing 26 times for 218 yards (8.4 per carry) and four touchdowns. He was also a quarterback in high school and went 3/6 for 35 yards and a touchdown last year. There’s also intel that the Bears prefer Loveland to Warren as Johnson views him as a LaPorta clone.
But I keep coming back to Ryan Poles takes premium positions (which by me typing out all but assures he trades up for Jeanty (please be with New England)) with his premium picks. Maybe Warren or Loveland are just ranked so much higher on their board than everyone else, but Poles passed on Jalen Carter to draft Darnell Wright.
Maybe it was Carter’s character stuff coming out of college that scared him off, which is debatably fair, but everyone in the NFL is apparently clamoring for Banks and left tackles don’t grow on trees. I do think Braxton Jones does not get the credit he deserves but he is rehabbing an injury and entering the final year of his contact. Start putting the Spytek thing into practice: Chicago can get a pass rusher or tight end at their two picks in the second round, but they’re not going to get a tackle. The Bears did a LOT of work upgrading the offensive line in free agency and adding Banks turns this into a dominant five man unit, which was Detroit’s super power while Johnson was there.
#11 San Francisco 49ers – DT Mason Graham, Michigan
The 9ers experienced an exodus in free agency as they lost or released 17 players. The team now has needs at all three levels on defense but I’d argue the biggest need on the roster is defensive tackle. After release both Javon Hargrave and Maliek Collins San Francisco currently has Jordan Elliott, Evan Anderson, Kevin Givens, and Kalia Davis on the roster listed at defensive tackle. Also, in three of the first four drafts during the Shanalynch Era (patent pending) the team used their initial selection on a defensive lineman, twice drafting a defensive tackle. In need of a roster reset, I think the 9ers are poised to get back to basics here at 11.
Point being, San Francisco will happily end Graham’s slide. I believe regardless of who is available here, it is going to be a defensive lineman. One of Graham, Walter Nolen, Derrick Harmon, Mykell Williams, and Shemar Stewart have to be here (#math) and the 9ers will stick and pick their favorite.
#12 Dallas Cowboys – WR Tetairoa McMillan, Arizona
The Cowboys have plenty of needs and could go in any direction here but I’m pretty confident they will draft a receiver here, whether it be McMillan or Golden. Tet makes a lot of sense as a fit for this team. Dallas already has a playmaker in CeeDee Lamb so McMillan’s big-bodied archetype would be a good compliment to what Lamb is already bringing to the offense. In addition, Tet shines as a contested catch merchant and Dak’s whole thing is he has no qualms about firing the ball into tight windows.
However, when you watched the Cowboys last year it was in your face how badly this team just needed some juice. They absolutely can use McMillan’s skill set but what they’re really lacking is a take the top off the defense threat to open up the field. Golden basically represents what they were trying to accomplish by bringing in Brandin Cooks or what they used to have before donating Amari Cooper to the Browns. That’s why I had this as Golden on Monday, but all the late breaking reporting is tying the team to McMillan and McShay said on his podcast “the people in the building who matter prefer McMillan to Golden.”
#13 Miami Dolphins – S Malaki Starks, Georgia
Miami is probably pleading with God for Banks to get to them. With him off the board, I need to point out that Chris Grier typically skews toward premium positions with his first round picks. 8 of his 10 first round selections have been either a QB, WR, OT, Edge, or CB. He commonly spends second rounders on those positions as well.
However, he once upon a time took Minkah Fitzpatrick 11th overall and Jevon Holland 36th. And Grier clearly has a type at safety. All three of Starks, Fitzpatrick and Holland stand 6’1″ and weigh between 197 and 203. They all ran a 4.46-4.50 40 and posted either a 33″ or 35.5″ vertical. They all played at big programs and had high remarks for their football IQ when coming out as prospects.
The team never did replace Holland, and as desperately as they need help elsewhere (especially corner assuming Ramsey is traded) Starks is the best bet to make an immediate impact out of who they might be targeting here if the board falls this way.
#14 Indianapolis Colts – TE Colston Loveland, Michigan
Outside for Cam Ward to the Titans this is probably the most chalk projection out there. However, it’s chalk for. a reason as it jus makes a ton of sense. The Colts desperately need more production out of their tight end group and more so Steichen and Ballard’s jobs may be on the line this season so they need to do everything within their power to support either Richardson or Jones. (Ballard’s job has got to be on the line this year). Loveland, the high school wide receiver, would bring a receiver movement and skill set to an offense in dire need of what he has to offer.
#15 Atlanta Falcons – Edge Mike Green, Marshall
This comes down to who Atlanta has highest among Green, Stewart, Pearce, and Nolen. The Falcons are allegedly willing to over look some “red flags” which tends to refer to Pearce’s practice habits (or whatever the background noise is) and Green’s assault accusations. This would in theory apply to Nolen’s practice habits as well.
For what it’s worth, McShay has Atlanta taking Pearce over Green, and more importantly, so does Matt Miller who specifically says that the same source that connected Penix to the Falcons last year told him to put Pearce here. That’s quite the nugget to ignore but I’m going to anyway, potentially to my own peril. It won’t surprise me (obviously) if this is Pearce, but Marc Raimondi (ESPN Falcons beat writer) and Josh Kendall (The Athletic Falcons beat writer) have the team taking Green over Pearce, so it’s two against one. You can easily say “hey, neither of them knew about Penix last year!” which is true, but I’m leaning on the idea that in the long-run it’s better to trust the beat writers over a sample size of one.
#16 Arizona Cardinals – CB Will Johnson, Michigan
General managers are often asked how they strategize between drafting for need or taking the best player available. Almost 100% of them say something to the affect of “well hopefully the two marry up when you’re on the clock.” That could be the case here if the Cardinals are on the bull side of the Johnson debate. The former freshman phenom and sophomore All-American is going to fall out of the top 10 picks due to his lack of long-speed. His tape in 2024 was also up and down and he dealt with injuries as well.
Johnson’s slide is the Cardinals gain however. Viewed as a top 10 pick coming into the season, Arizona is potentially getting the steal of the draft here if Johnson can play up to his talent level in the pros. The Cardinals cannot go into next season with their outside corner situation there way that it is and Johnson represents a day one upgrade as a starter.
#17 Cincinnati Bengals – DT Derrick Harmon, Oregon
Paul Dehner Jr. is the Bengals beat writer for The Athletic and he does tremendous work with his pre-draft content. He’s very diligently walked through how the Bengals are ranking their positions of need, when in the draft they have traditionally targeted each position, and who fits the mold of the characteristics they’ve sought out in previous draft classes.
In his final Bengals mock draft (that he did in isolation, not the beat writer mock) he projects the two finalists for this pick to be Harmon and Walter Nolen, and chooses Harmon. I almost went with Nolen for two reasons: it’s really hard to predict where these guys with lingering injury questions will ultimately end up going, and Dehner pointed out that each of Cincinnati’s first five picks last year made a top 30 visit to the team. Nolen made a visit, Harmon did not.
However, Dehner ultimately decides on Harmon due to the concerns about Nolen’s love for football. Jay Glazer tweeted out last night that teams have always grouped players they’re eliminating from their board into two buckets: 1. Injury concerns and 2. Character concerns. He said that this year teams added a third bucket, “Doesn’t love football.” While Nolen and Pearce may be hot names in the run up to the draft, I think it’s just as likely they fall a bit due to this. Their ranges (along with McMillan) are really wide because it’s going to depend on how each team in particular assess a player’s drive and motivation.
#18 Seattle Seahawks – Edge Shemar Stewart, Texas A&M
The ENTIRE mock draft universe has Grey Zabel here despite the fact John Schneider has been showing us since 2010 that he simply doesn’t believe in using premium draft picks or paying big money for interior offensive lineman. The earliest that you can argue Schneider has taken an interior offensive lineman is #31 and I don’t know that the Germain Ifedi pick counts as taking a guard and not a tackle. For how many consecutive years during the Russell Wilson era did we always say “man the Seahawks need better guard play.” Still, no big money, no first rounders. I’m on an island with this pick, but it’s one I’m willing to die on.
Schneider believes in a best player available strategy so I’d say our four finalists are Stewart, Walter Nolen, Matthew Golden, and Nick Emmanwori. It was very tempting to go with both Golden and Emmanwori. Quick on Emmanwori, his two most common comps are Kam Chancellor (hello Schneider’s attention) and Kyle Hamilton (hello Macdonald’s attention).
Demarcus Lawrence and Cooper Kupp signed one-year deals masquerading as three-year pacts. MVS is signed to an actual one-year contract. JSN is the only receiver on the team under the age of 30 that is truly locked into the roster beyond 2025. Golden would immediately provide the Seahawks a third receivers they can put out wide or in the slot, joining Kupp and JSN. JSN is the only time in which Schneider has taken a receiver in the first round, but has a record of taking these smaller, super fast dudes on Day 2 (Golden Tate, Paul Richardson, Tyler Lockett, D’Wayne Eskridge). Oddly enough the exception to this is Metcalf, but Golden would still provide the over the top juice this offense is lacking in the wake of Metcalf’s departure. The organization has a lot riding on Darnold and the team might think Golden is the best receiver in the draft.
But Shemar seems like a better bet. Like I said, Lawrence’s contract is really a one-year deal and Boye Mafe is entering the final season on his rookie contract. The team could work out an extension (they historically always do so after the draft except for Russell Wilson) but still, the long-term outlook at edge isn’t secure. Yes they signed Nwosu to a two-year deal but I almost guarantee you they cut him in 2026 to save $11.5 million. The team may view Stewart’s potential as simply too high to pass up, and keep in mind Macdonald earned his stripes coming up through the Baltimore organization who routinely drafts and develop tools-y pass rushers. Stewart is viewed as a project given his lack of production but he can spend the year learning from Macdonald and Lawrence before exploding into his own his sophomore year.
#19 Tampa Bay Buccaneers – LB Jihaad Campbell, Alabama
This is another chalky pick and if you’re reading my blog of all blogs you’ve read this explanation 50 billion times by now. Campbell is probably a top 10 player in this draft that is going to slid a little bit due to positional value and his ongoing recovery from shoulder surgery. It’s Tampa’s dream scenario though given the state of their linebacker situation and Campbell projecting as a great fit in Todd Bowles’ scheme. Campbell also provides an ability to rush off the edge so you can move him around as a chess piece.
#20 Denver Broncos – RB TreVeyon Henderson, Ohio State
If you don’t follow Benjamin Allbright on Twitter, do so. He’s a very good reporter and is incredibly plugged into the Broncos. He cryptically tweeted out last year that Denver was taking Bo Nix by spelling out “It’s Bo” with the first letter of each sentence. Not to toot my own horn but I also called Bo to the Broncos early on and throughout the process last year.
Anyway, Allbright has Henderson as the pick to Denver in his final mock draft, which includes Omarion Hampton being available here. This also makes a lot of sense because there’s tons of buzz Henderson will be the second running back taken, not Hampton. Regardless, I’m basically just defaulting to what Allbright has, but we all know Payton wants as many Jokers as possible and Henderson’s passing game ability (including his pass protection) theoretically gives him the nod here over Hampton.
#21 Pittsburgh Steelers – QB Shedeur Sanders, Colorado
Among those projecting Sanders to the Steelers, every single one of them caveats it with “I have no confidence in this.” I think Pittsburgh is a likely trade down candidate if they don’t take Sheduer here in an effort to recoup draft capital after the Metcalf trade. Still, with their glaring need for a quarterback (Rodgers has no impact on that statement) I think between Tomlin liking Sanders, Tomlin’s increased influence with in the Omar Khan era vs. Kevin Colbert era, and not wanting to gamble on trading down and Sanders not being there anymore, they ultimately just pull the trigger.
If Pittsburgh doesn’t take any quarterback in the first round they seem poised to take a defensive lineman. The Steelers are pretty transparent with their 30 visits and they brought in a lot of defensive big men. They did a lot of homework on running backs as well, and this is the team that took Najee in the first round and is now looking at Hampton.
#22 Los Angeles Chargers – DT Kenneth Grant, Michigan
Joe Hortiz spent 26 years in Baltimore and so far has operated in the same manner as where he spent two and a half decades studying. They bolstered the trenches at number five last year. Los Angeles moved up in the second round to target someone specific. They were pretty shrewd in free agency this past March. Hortiz spoke about how what free agency moves they did make rounded out the roster well and they can just draft the best player available as opposed to being forced into selecting a position group. Any of this seem familiar?
The Ravens have long prioritized being stout in the trenches and in the middle of their defensive front. While Hortiz spoke favorably of the guys they have on the defensive interior, no one currently on the roster is an obvious candidate to replace the impact that Poona Ford and Morgan Fox had last year, both of whom left in free agency. Last year Harbaugh could have selected Kris Jenkins, Mike Sainristil, or Junior Colson at the top of round two but instead passed on all three for McConkey. They ultimately had Colson fall to them in the third and pull the trigger but my point is I think the Michigan connection is more a cherry on top than a needle mover with Grant.
#23 Green Bay Packers – CB Jahdae Barron, Texas
It’s tough not to put Matthew Golden here. Green Bay could view him as the best receiver in the draft and the best player on the board. It’s just difficult to predict the end of a 23 year streak, especially when Rob Demovsky (ESPN Packers beat writer) has the team passing on both Golden and Egbuka in the beat writer mock.
If they don’t go receiver this figures to be a corner or defensive lineman. Walter Nolen is just sitting here, as is James Pearce and Donovan Ezeiruaku who are likely finalists as well. However, I just cannot get over how badly the Packers need to take a corner. They’ve expressed confidence in the non-Alexander guys they have on the roster, which they absolutely should do, and I’m not even saying it’s lip service. But with or without Alexander (and it still could be without) Green Bay just cannot go into next season, especially in the NFC North, with their current corner back situation.
Is Barron an outside corner, a nickel, is he kinda sorta really a safety? He’s good at football, that’s what he is. In Gutekunst’s first draft as general manager in 2018, he took a smaller corner out of Louisville that teams were worried could only play nickel with the 18th pick. Though he’s in a contract dispute with that man now, do you think two Second-Team All-Pro and two Pro Bowl selections later Gutekunst gives a shit about Alexander’s size?
*TRADE*
Minnesota Receives: #31, #95, #226
Kansas City Receives: #24
#24 Kansas City Chiefs (F/MIN) – OT Josh Simmons, Ohio State
Finally, a trade. As I outlined above, the Vikings have to be the most likely team to trade down in the first round as they enter the draft with only four picks. Kansas City has two third rounders and have demonstrated a willingness to be aggressive in previous years. In 2022 I predicted they’d trade up with the Patriots to target a corner since 8+ rookies aren’t going to make the final cuts for a Super Bowl contender. The team also traded up last year for Xavier Worthy. Trading with the Vikings allows the Chiefs to leapfrog the offensive line desperate Houston Texans.
We’ve all witnessed two blowout Super Bowl losses for the Chiefs where their offensive line put on an embarrassing performance. Kansas City signed Jaylon Moore in free agency, but he’s never played a full season worth of start snaps (he logged 259 last year for example) and functionally speaking he’s a projection. He only received a two-year deal anyway, and the Chiefs can get out of it after one season if things go poorly. On the right side, the team can save $20 million next year by cutting Jawaan Taylor, which I almost guarantee happens.
Brett Veach and Andy Reid have been searching for a permanent solution as Mahomes’ blindside protector for five years now. Here’s Veach in his own words: “Obviously, any chance you have to draft a guy that you can project to be a starting left tackle, you do that – and they’re really hard to come by. You typically don’t find left tackles in free agency… Jaylon is under a two-year contract and Jawaan is getting toward the tail end of his contract, too, so you always have to have one eye on the present and one on the future.”
The common refrain on Josh Simmons is he’s the most gifted offensive tackle in the draft and had he played the entire season he would be an easy top 10 pick, if not top 5. However, due to his rehab and rawness, he’s going to slid on draft day (McShay also says there’s some character stuff, not that he’s a bad guy just that he doesn’t love football). But that’s the beauty of bringing him into the Kansas City situation. with the presence of Moore and Taylor the Chiefs don’t have to rush Simmons onto the field. They can develop him in the background and if he eventually steals one of the starting jobs, great, or if he just takes over in 2026 for the next 12 years then this trade up was beyond worth it.
#25 Houston Texans – OG Tyler Booker, Alabama
Houston has boxed themselves into a corner with this pick. Sure, the team brought int Cam Robinson, Ed Ingram, and Laken Tomlinson as three one-year stop gaps so they can literally just field an offensive line in 2025, but their situation is a disaster. I would not be surprised if they went Donovan Jackson here as they could try him as a tackle but two things.
First, ever since Nick Caserio took over he’s prioritized locker room culture guys. He wasn’t bashful about admitting this when he first arrived. The Alabama program describes Booker as “the top 1% of 1% of character guys.” A team captain, “..[he keeps everyone accountable in that locker room. …After the Vandy loss, Book is the guy who got everyone back on track.”
Second is there might be an Alabama connection. I don’t want to blow a sample size of three out of proportion, but with former Alabama player DeMeco Ryan as head coach, the Texans took John Metchie and Christian Harris on Day 2 in 2022 before trading a bounty in 2023 to fly up the board and draft Will Anderson.
*TRADE*
Los Angeles Receives: #34, #65, and either #154 or a 2026 4th rounder
New York Giants Receive: #26, #90
#26 New York Giants (F/LAR) – QB Jackson Dart, Ole Miss
Swapping 34 and 65 for 26 and 90 is almost an exact match on the Jimmy Johnson chart. New York would be 15 points shy so 154 (30 points) to pay a bit of a quarterback tax so the Rams don’t send this pick to New Orleans, or send a 4th rounder next year, whichever Los Angeles prefers.
This is self explanatory, right? New York bypassed quarterback at three so they’re jumping ahead of Cleveland and making sure New Orleans doesn’t do this exact move themselves. Brian Daboll, reportedly, wants Jaxson Dart (well he really wants Cam Ward) so Joe Schoen goes and gets him.
I’d also like to point out that I don’t understand why more people aren’t talking about Jameis Winston being available for a trade if/when the Giants do take a quarterback in the top 34. I know it’s weird to sign someone and then trade them a month later, but what is New York going to do with Wilson, Winston, and Rookie QB X? I’m calling it now, New York beats the Saints to the punch in trading up for Dart and then sends Jameis back to New Orleans, which he will be on board with since he will be the starter there.
#27 Baltimore Ravens – Edge Donovan Ezeiruaku, Boston College
For the record, I do agree with everyone else that if Starks falls to the Ravens then it’s a no-brainer. Anyway, Baltimore is commonly linked to a pass rusher with this pick and you can make the argument Ezeiruaku is the best player on the board here, regardless of position. Matthew Golden is sill here, and I really thought about it. Adding his field stretching threat to this offense could just really open things up, but in tried and true Ravens fashion they opt for the sound choice over the flash.
#28 Detroit Lions – OL Grey Zabel, North Dakota State
Another team commonly paired with a pass rusher that I have going in another direction. Detroit could easily take an edge here, specifically Ezeiruaka, but they decide to play the board instead, knowing they can get a talented edge rusher on Day 2 where as the drop off at guard is significant.
For years the Lions’ super power has been their elite offensive line, trotting out five good-to-great starters. The team lost Kevin Zeitler in free agency, so a replacement is needed. Zabel showcased his skills at the Senior Bowl, proving he is worth his salt despite playing at an FCS school. This, plus his five position versatility, leads me to believe he will get drafted in the first round, especially in a down offensive lineman class.
Zabel seems like a Campbell guy as well. He was a team captain in 2024 and everyone in the program loves him. The coaches rave about his character, Cam Miller (NDSU’s quarterback) said Zabel is “one of the best leaders I’ve ever been around.” and an NFL scout said “[f]ootball, farming and his family – not sure he cares about much else.”
#29 Washington Commanders – S Nick Emmanwori, South Carolina
Washington enters this draft with only five picks so they’re a candidate to trade down. Not wanting to oversaturate this mock with trades, however, they stick and pick a player they didn’t anticipate being available. The Commanders have needs at every position on defense and their most dire situation may very well be safety. Emmanwori is commonly comped to Kam Chancellor, so do you think Dan Quinn will be interested?
#30 Buffalo Bills – DT Walter Nolen, Ole Miss
Pegging where Nolen gets drafted is impossible. The former #1 recruit in the nation coming out of high school, his flashes are that of a top 10 pick. His lack of consistency and “background” questions could push him down the board. It doesn’t seem so much that he’s a bad guy or anything, it’s more a question of his effort level and passion for football. He could just as easily go 10-19 spots higher than this. I actually hate that I have him projected this low because he is also one of the hottest names in the draft leading up to the opening bell. Multiple reports say he’s not getting out of the top 15.
The Bills aren’t complaining though. They’re likely to just sit at 30 and take the best defensive player on the board, regardless of position. They do desperately need a corner, but they won’t pass on the potential of pairing Nolen with Ed Oliver and making Mahomes’ and Burrows’ lives a living nightmare. Buffalo may also think between Oliver, Joey Bosa, and Greg Rousseau they have the veteran presence intact to keep Nolen in line.
#31 Minnesota Vikings (F/KC) – OG Donovan Jackson, Ohio State
The main reason Minnesota chose to trade with the Chiefs instead of one of the quarterback needy teams is because it allowed them to stay in the first round. I wouldn’t be blown away if they traded down again from here to add more picks, but in this scenario Jackson is too good to pass on.
The Vikings guaranteed $101 million in free agent contracts to boost the interior of their roster when they brought in Ryan Kelly, Will Fries, Jonathan Allen, and Javon Hargrave. You don’t do that if you aren’t trying to build an immediate Super Bowl contender. Minnesota is on the clock for the rookie quarterback contract window, and after missing his entire rookie year with a knee injury, bringing in Jackson provides for five quality blockers protecting J.J. McCarthy.
*TRADE*
Philadelphia Receives: #36, #107
Jacksonville Receives: #32
#32 Jacksonville Jaguars (F/PHI) – WR Matthew Golden, Texas
I absolutely hate projecting this trade as I have no confidence Golden is actually going to last this long. The only thing I’m certain of is the Eagles will not be selecting at pick 32. Howie could move up or down, who knows, but he’s Howie Roseman and he has 20 picks in the next two drafts, eight this year and 12 in 2026. You’d think this makes them more likely to move up, and that certainly could be the case. When he wants someone he gets aggressive. But I’m just skittish to project a specific Eagles move up the board, and Philadelphia can easily move down a few slots and still draft a defensive lineman to replenish their inventory.
As for the Jaguars, if James Gladstone and Liam Coen really want to make sure they keep their draft “electric” then what could possibly accomplish that more than bringing in both Jeanty and Golden? I know the theory to them considering Tet at five is his size and that Coen worked with Evans in Tampa and Lawrence flourished with Higgins and Ross at Clemson, but I don’t think the team ever expected to realistically come away with Jeanty and Golden.
ROUND TWO
#33 Cleveland Browns – QB Tyler Shough, Louisville
#34 Los Angeles Rams (F/NYG) – TE Mason Taylor, LSU
If the Rams stay where they currently are they don’t select between picks 26 and 90. This trade down allows them to not be sidelined for so long. It’s been pretty well documented that Los Angeles wanted to go up and get Bowers last year and it’s out there in the zeitgeist this year that they’re interested in going up to get Loveland. They trade down and land Taylor.
#35 Tennessee Titans – WR Jayden Higgins, Iowa State
Higgins as WR3 off the board is presumably coming as a surprise to you. 1. Nothing ever goes as planned, things we don’t expect to happen always do, especially atop round two. 2. Higgins is a big bodied X type receiver, which pairs better with Ridley that Burden or Egbuka, and Callahan had in Higgins back in Cincinnati.
#36 Philadelphia Eagles (F/JAX) – Edge James Pearce, Tennessee
Howie moved down and landed Pearce because of course he did.
#37 Las Vegas Raiders – CB Maxwell Hairston, Kentucky
#38 New England Patriots – WR Emeka Egbuka, Ohio State
#39 Chicago Bears (F/CAR) – RB Omarion Hampton, North Carolina
#40 New Orleans Saints – QB Jalen Milroe, Alabama
New Orleans could very well bypass quarterback here if this pans out and just take McCord in the 3rd or Howard or Leonard on Day 3. I’m not calling Milroe Jalen Hurts, I’m just saying Kellen Moore drafting Milroe and the team trading for Jameis Winston makes a lot of sense in this scenario.
#41 Chicago Bears – TE Elijah Arroyo, Miami
#42 New York Jets – OT Josh Conerly Jr., Oregon
#43 San Francisco 49ers – Edge Landon Jackson, Arkansas
#44 Dallas Cowboys – RB Quinshon Judkins, Ohio State
#45 Indianapolis Colts – LB Carson Schwesinger, UCLA
#46 Atlanta Falcons – S Xavier Watts, Notre Dame
#47 Arizona Cardinals – WR Luther Burden III, Missouri
#48 Miami Dolphins – OT Aireontae Ersery, Minnesota
#49 Cincinnati Bengals – OG Tate Ratledge, Georgia
#50 Seattle Seahawks – OL Marcus Mbow, Purdue
#51 Denver Broncos – WR Jaylin Noel, Iowa State
#52 Seattle Seahawks (F/PIT) – CB Trey Amos, Ole Miss
#53 Tampa Bay Buccaneers – Edge JT Tuimoloau, Ohio State
#54 Green Bay Packers – WR Jalen Royals, Utah State
#55 Los Angeles Chargers – WR Jack Bech, TCU
#56 Buffalo Bills (F/MIN) – CB Shavon Revel Jr., East Carolina
#57 Carolina Panthers (F/LAR) – WR Tre Harris, Ole Miss
#58 Houston Texans – DT Darius Alexander, Toledo
#59 Baltimore Ravens – CB Benjamin Morrison, Notre Dame
#60 Detroit Lions – Edge Nic Scourton, Texas A&M
#61 Washington Commanders – DT Tyleik Williams, Ohio State
#62 Buffalo Bills – WR Kyle Williams, Washington State
#63 Kansas City Chiefs – OG Jonah Savaiinaea, Arizona
#64 Philadelphia Eagles – TE Harold Fannin Jr., Bowling Green
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