2025 NFL Mock Draft 2.0

The draft is upon us. This may not be a loaded quarterback class, or rich in top end talent, but this draft offers plenty of intrigue. There seems to be no consensus. Even at the drafts’ deepest positions – running back, edge, defensive tackle – after the top guy everyone has the rest of the class ranked in a different order.

Here’s somethings I think I know ahead of the draft, regardless of how accurate my pick-by-pick projections end up being.

-There won’t be many first round trades. I’ve said it over and over (and so has the media), but in a flat draft there’s no real incentive for teams to move up. There could be a flurry of activity late in the first with the Browns, Giants, and Saints jockeying for position to take their preferred quarterback from the second wave of prospects. Still, I’d take the under on 3.5.

-That said, the teams most likely to move down are Atlanta, Minnesota, Los Angeles (Rams), and Washington. Atlanta only has five picks and their primary targets figure to be along the defensive line where they can easily move down and get the same caliber player later on as they can at 15. Minnesota has only four picks and sit right in front of the offensive line starved Texans. Also at 24 they are a prime target for Cleveland or New York to come up for a quarterback. The Rams and Commanders are both light on picks (Los Angeles doesn’t select in between 26 and 90, thought they do have eight picks in total, while Washington only has five picks) and have general managers with a demonstrated willingness to make deals.

-The teams most likely to move up fit into two buckets; quarterback needy and “has a lot of picks and a team need at a shallow position in the draft. The teams in the first bucket are obvious: Pittsburgh, Cleveland, New York, and New Orleans. The second bucket includes San Francisco, Miami, Los Angeles (Chargers), Baltimore, and Kansas City. Specifically for the 9ers and Dolphins, if one of the two tackles gets past the Jets at seven I can see Carolina trading down to 11 or 13 considering they need as many picks as they can get and they can easily take an edge three or five picks later.

-Positional value may be thrown out the window for a lot of teams in this draft. Given the fact nearly everyone after Hunter, Carter, and Jeanty have question marks, teams may opt for a “cleaner/safer” prospect at less important positions as opposed to taking a gamble elsewhere. Ryan Poles has a demonstrated history of using his premium draft capital on premium positions, but the Bears look primed to take a tight end at 10. Why roll the dice on a pass rusher with question marks (especially when you can get a good one in the second round) when Tyler Warren is a much cleaner prospect to project to the league. This is also a bad interior offensive line class, so they may go flying off the board late round one into early round two because teams know they can circle back on defensive lineman later in the draft.

-Will Johnson will not be a top 11 pick. In the last 10 drafts (2015-2024) the slowest 40 time clocked by a corner in the top 10 was 4.48. Push that out to the top 11 and we get a 4.50. We don’t have a 40 time on Will Johnson but the word is he declined to run at his private workout because he was consistently running between 4.58 and 4.62 while training. Considering the biggest question surrounding him is his long speed, if he was going to break 4.50 he would have showcased it.

Anyway, thanks for putting up with my brain dump before getting to the good stuff. Hope you enjoy the read and of course I hope you enjoy the draft!

#1 Tennessee Titans – QB Cam Ward, Miami

I don’t want to spend time explaining this since everyone knows it’s happening. Instead I’ll just say that I agree that this is the correct decision. As tempting as Hunter and Carter are, you can’t bypass on a chance to shoot your shot on a quarterback. I think the perception of Cam Ward’s prospect quality has been dragged down due to the constant refrain of “this is a bad quarterback class.” The class isn’t great, no, but Ward is a talented enough prospect that he warrants the number one pick in a draft.

It’s tempting to say the Titans should trade this pick and kick the can on taking a quarterback until next year when it’s supposed to be a better class. The problem is 1. There’s no guarantee Tennessee will be drafting high enough to take one (though maybe Will Levis just guarantees you a top five pick). 2. There’s no guarantee anyone next year will be worthy a top five selection. 3. If your own draft pick isn’t high enough to select an elite prospect, there’s no guarantee the teams picking that high will be willing to trade the pick.

On the last point, the Titans are proving that to be true this year. Both the Browns and (much more so) the Giants have inquired about trading up to one, but Tennessee is refusing to move the pick. New York won a meaningless game against the Colts and lost control of having the number one pick. The quarterback desperate Titans sit atop the draft board and ultimately decided that “ok, yea, Ward isn’t Caleb, Jayden, or Maye but he’s good and we like him and we’re just going to stick and pick.”

This has no happened to the Giants in consecutive drafts. Joe Schoen trying to trade up with the Patriots last year to get Drake Maye is literally on film via Hard Knocks. I have no idea what New York offered New England, but the Patriots said, on recording, “we’re just going to stick and take our quarterback.”

Teams picking at the very top of the draft are probably their because they need a quarterback. If the Browns, Giants, Jets, Saints, and Panthers pick above Tennessee next year, do you think any of them are going to bypass their chance at a quarterback just because the Titans stocked up on future draft capital in 2025 to trade up in 2026? No. They won’t care. Just like Tennessee doesn’t care this year and just like New England didn’t care last year.

#2 Cleveland Browns – WR/CB Travis Hunter, Colorado

Another pick I don’t want to take a ton of time explaining as the writing seems to be on the wall. Vegas has moved the odds Cleveland takes Hunter to -1000, if you’re into that sort of thing.

#3 New York Giants – Edge Abdul Carter, Penn State

This explanation is more that New York isn’t going to take a quarterback at three. The caveat is that John Mara could just walk into the war room on draft night and say “think of the jersey sales if we take Shedeur” and then that’s that. But Dianna Russini is reporting the organization is operating in “lock-step,” and both her and Art Stapleton are maintaining that this late blitzkrieg of private quarterback workouts was always a part of the plan, really has more to do with due diligence and who they’re going to take later, and that the sense around the team is they’re taking Carter and not a signal caller.

#4 New England Patriots – OT Will Campbell, LSU

Another short explanation. I’d imagine the finalists are Campbell, Membou, Jeanty, and Graham. I wouldn’t be shocked by any, though I’d be surprised by Jeanty. However, protecting Drake Maye is imperative to the long-term success of this franchise, as well as Mike Vrabel and Eliot Wolf’s job security. Vrabel openly said he views Campbell as a tackle since “you can just watch him play left tackle on film against good guys that are going to get drafted.” Campbell is also the “nastier” blocker between him and Membou, already plays the left side, has an incredible football IQ, and is more of the culture setter/team (or at least OL) leader that you’d figure Vrabel will gravitate toward. Campbell has also moved to -1000 to be the 4th pick, if you’re into that sort of thing.

I still think there’s a non-zero chance the Bears trade up to four to secure Jeanty.

#5 Jacksonville Jaguars – DT Mason Graham, Michigan

You don’t need me to tell you how bad the Jaguars defense was last year. Graham is either the third or fourth best player in this draft, depending on how high you’re willing to rank a running back. The biggest knock on Graham is his short arms, but not only did Gladstone watch Aaron Donald dominate with he was with the Rams, he was also instrumental in the team drafting Kobie Turner and Braden Fiske, two interior defensive lineman with subpar arm length.

#6 Las Vegas Raiders – RB Ashton Jeanty, Boise State

I think the odds Vegas goes Jeanty here is 90% if he’s available. He’s the betting favorite, the best player on the board, hits a huge need, Spytek openly said at his press conference the idea is to “add elite players at every position,” he doesn’t “devalue any position” and he doesn’t “understand how we got to a place where we don’t value running backs.” Oh, and I’m assuming Pete Carroll won’t exactly be kicking and screaming about this pick.

But let me just make the case for why they might go Membou here. The most significant piece of evidence was a media appearance Spytek did where he outlined how you need to think in terms of what the player combination is that you’re getting with your first two picks. He specifically brought up his time in Cleveland in 2010 and how with the 7th pick they were targeting a safety (Eric Berry) and a corner (Joe Haden). He explained how the organization thought through “if we take a corner at seven, what kind of safety are we looking at in the second round, and if we take a safety at seven, what kind of safety are we looking at in the second round?”

Eric Berry ended up going five to the Chiefs that year so the Browns just sat there and took Haden, but the strategy remains. Applying it to the 6th pick in 2025, the question becomes if we take Jeanty at six, what kind of tackle are we looking at in the second round, and if we take Membou at six what kind of running back are we looking at in the second round? If they draft Membou, it’s almost guaranteed that at 37 one of Henderson (Ohio State), Judkins (Ohio State), or Kaleb Johnson will be available. If Vegas takes Jeanty, there’s a high probability all of the second wave tackles (Banks, Simmons, Conerly) will be gone given how tackles get pushed up the board due to simple supply and demand and starting at pick 21 the Steelers, Packers, Texans, Rams, Chiefs, and Eagles could all realistically select a tackle.

Then you look at the starters. DJ Glaze was serviceable in his rookie year, but he’s a third round pick that this regime didn’t have a hand in selecting. In addition, long-time mainstay Kolton Miller is in the midsts of a contract dispute with the team coming off an up-and-down injured season while heading into the final of his deal. Membou could be an immediate upgrade at right tackle while also serving as an insurance policy should Miller move on in 2026 and the team wants to flip Membou to the left side. And for whatever it’s worth (probably zero) Pete Carroll’s first ever draft pick in Seattle was an offensive tackle picked sixth overall.

#7 New York Jets – OT Armand Membou, Missouri

This seems to be coming down to either Membou or Warren and I struggle to think New York will take Warren over solidifying their offensive line. When I wrote the Draft Multiverse manifesto I pointed out how the Jets’ free agency strategy was almost a carbon copy of how Dan Campbell, Brad Holmes and company went about their business when taking over the Lions in 2021. Then in the draft they selected an offensive tackle (Penei Sewell) with the.. wait for it.. 7th pick of the draft, knowing he would play on the right side since they had a left tackle in place.

I get wanting to get Fields more weapons, but the final remaining piece to the decade long endeavor to overhaul this offensive line is a right tackle. New York can finally feel good about their four starters from left tackle over to right guard. Membou makes it 5/5. Additionally, you on the copy-the-Lions front, you have to imagine that defensive minded Aaron Glenn wants to play smash mouth football, and for years now Detroit’s super power has been having the best offensive line in all of football. Add in the positional value of an offensive tackle over a tight end and I just don’t see Warren being the pick here assuming Membou is on the board.

#8 Carolina Panthers – LB Jalon Walker, Georgia

It’s becoming popular to mock Tet or Warren here under theory of the Panthers investing in support Bryce, and while it makes sense it appears Carolina is locked in on a defender, and even then it seems to be one of the Georgia boys (Walker and Mykel Williams).

Walker may not be a true edge and will mostly be an off-ball linebacker, but Panthers’ general manager Dan Morgan was an off-ball linebacker selected with the 11th pick of the draft and I’m assuming he thinks that he was worth that selection. Beyond Walker’s talent and immense upside, the chorus out of Athens is that Walker was the alpha of alphas and you’re not just getting on field impact but what he brings to the locker room as a leader is the exact type of culture setting you want out of a top 10 pick.

#9 New Orleans Saints – Edge Shemar Stewart, Texas A&M

No, I do not believe New Orleans is going to take a quarterback at nine. I do believe they’ll be pretty aggressive moving up from 40 into the 20s to get Shedeur or Dart (or Shough I guess), but they’re going to draft their highest graded player here.

So who are they going to have graded highest? Mickey Loomis has (inexplicably) been the general manager of the Saints since 2002. This provides us an incredible track record of his work to help inform us of how he may go about his business in the future. Since 2002, here is how many first and second round selections Loomis has made at each position:

WR, OT, DE (Edge), and DT make up 18 of the 26 first round picks Loomis has made in the last 23 years. No other position has more than two*, while WR, OT, DE, and DT all have four or five. (Corner is either 2 or 3, and safety 2 or 1, depending on what you consider Malcolm Jenkins at the time they drafted him).

I think the finalists for this selection are Matthew Golden, Shemar Stewart, Mykel Williams, and Walter Nolen. A second tier of names would include Kelvin Banks, Mike Green, and Will Johnson. The reason I pushed out the 40 times of corners draft in the top 10 to the top 11 above is because we then get an instance of the Saints selecting a corner that high in our sample. Loomis took Marshon Lattimore 11th overall in 2017, and Lattimore clocked a 4.32. Corner is probably this team’s biggest non-quarterback need, but Loomis prefers more juice out of his first round corners and receivers (more on this in a minute) and clearly prefers to hit the position in the second round. I also don’t see why any team would roll the dice on Mike Green’s assault allegations (never charged, his Marshall coaches vouch for him) when you can take just as talented a prospect without the baggage.

This becomes really tough between the final four. I think the next name I’d cross off the list is Nolen under the same premise as Green. Nolen has “character stuff,” whatever that means, so why go there when you don’t have to? Hey, the Saints could be comfortable with whatever it is, he’s talented enough that he’s worthy of this selection (his fall is going to be because of those background stuff), and the team needs help at defensive tackle more than it does at edge or wide receiver. But again, why go there when you don’t need to?

If you’re pressing me to narrow it down to two I’m going with Stewart and Williams. I don’t want to make too much of the fact Loomis has gone pass rusher five times vs. wide receiver (or defensive tackle) four times but, hey, the data is the data. It’s sort of odd to think of them adding another rusher though. Cam Jordan isn’t the hang up (is he really going to be on the roster in 2026?), it’s the presence of Carl Granderson and Chase Young, the latter of which the team just handed a brand new three year contract, which their earliest possible out being after two seasons.

Conversely, you can never have too many pass rushers and it is tied for the position Loomis has taken in the first round most often over the last two plus decades. The decision to go with Stewart over Williams came down to looking at the athletic profile of the five first rounders New Orleans has selected previously (Charles Grant, Will Smith, Cam Jordan, Marcus Davenport, and Payton Turner). From a height, weight, length, and workout perspective, Stewart aligns with the previous group of five more than Williams. Granted, none of the previous five finished their college careers with such little sack production, but four of the five had a RAS of 8.86 or higher, with three of them posting a 9.25 or higher. If you’re reading my blog of all blogs I’m assuming you’re already well aware that Stewart light up the combine and posted a perfect 10 RAS.

The thing that doesn’t make me very confident in this projection, however, (other than the fact the pick could just easily be either Williams or Nolen) is that both Golden and Banks fit the profile and make a lot of sense on their own. Real quick on Banks, offensive tackle is tied with edge for the position Loomis has taken the most over the years. With Ramczyk’s retirement the team may view tackle/offensive line as too big a need to ignore and simply reach on Banks and kick either him or (more likely) Taliese Fuaga inside to guard. The argument against this is that Banks would be a reach and this would make three first round offensive tackles in the last four drafts for the Saints (granted taking Banks could prompt the team to decline Penning’s 5th year option this coming May).

As for Golden, wide receiver is tied for the second most common position Loomis takes in the first round, and when New Orleans does go wide receiver they select someone with juice. Loomis’s first round wide receivers are Donte’ Stallworth (4.22), Robert Meachem (4.39), Brandin Cooks (4.33), and Chris Olave (4.39). If they go receiver it’s going to be Golden over McMillan.

The other piece of the puzzle that may push the Saints to go Golden (or Banks) is that typically speaking when a team takes a first round quarterback they spent their next pick on someone to help support that quarterback (OL, WR, and TE to a lesser extent). If I’m right and New Orleans takes a non-quarterback here with the plan being getting aggressive to move up later and take one in the 20’s, it’s not far fetch the Saints could implement this strategy in reverse. Take a wide receiver or offensive tackle at nine to help support Shedeur or Dart (or Shough I guess).

#10 Chicago Bears – TE Tyler Warren, Penn State

I’m really struggling with giving the Bears a tight end with the 10th pick given Ryan Poles track record. Since taking over in Chicago Poles spent his initial draft pick with the franchise on a corner (Gordon in the second), and his subsequent three first rounders on an offensive tackle (Darnell Wright), quarterback (Caleb Williams), and wide receiver (Rome Odunze). He has also traded away a second round pick for a wide receiver (Chase Claypool) and another second rounder for a pass rusher (Montez Sweat). When he selected Wright he traded down from nine to 10, forfeiting the opportunity to draft Jalen Carter, a defensive tackle.

Moral of the story, Poles spends his premium draft capital on premium positions. However, with the top two tackles off the board, no corner being worth the this pick, and a deep defensive line class, the Bears turn to taking the best player available. Much is made about how well Warren would fit with Ben Johnson since Johnson runs a lot of 12 personnel, but I’d like to point out how creative Johnson was in Detroit running trick plays that featured things like passes to Jared Goff and Penei Sewell becoming a receiver. While at Penn State Warren took 40 wildcat snaps last year, rushing 26 times for 218 yards (8.4 per carry) and four touchdowns. He was also a quarterback in high school and went 3/6 for 35 yards and a touchdown last year.

#11 San Francisco 49ers – DT Derrick Harmon, Oregon

The 9ers experienced an exodus in free agency as they lost or released 17 players. The team now has needs at all three levels on defense but I’d argue the biggest need on the roster is defensive tackle. After release both Javon Hargrave and Maliek Collins San Francisco currently has Jordan Elliott, Evan Anderson, Kevin Givens, and Kalia Davis on the roster listed at defensive tackle. Also, in three of the first four drafts during the Shanalynch Era (patent pending) the team used their initial selection on a defensive lineman, twice drafting a defensive tackle. In need of a roster reset, I think the 9ers are poised to get back to basics here at 11.

San Francisco was well represented at Oregon’s pro-day, with John Lynch on hand himself. He had dinner with Oregon coach Dan Lanning and said that Lanning has “become a really good friend and ally. Harmon is the disruptive force in the middle that this team needs right now. He has the frame, arm length, and first step quickness that you want at the position and he lead the nation last year in quarterback pressures among interior defensive lineman, according to PFF.

#12 Dallas Cowboys – WR Matthew Golden, Texas

The Cowboys have plenty of needs and could go in any direction here but I’m pretty confident they will draft a receiver here, whether it be Golden or McMillan. Tet does make a lot of sense as a fit for this team. Dallas already has a playmaker in CeeDee Lamb so McMillan’s big-bodied archetype would be a good compliment to what Lamb is already bringing to the offense. In addition, Tet shines as a contested catch merchant and Dak’s whole thing is he has no qualms about firing the ball into tight windows.

However, when you watched the Cowboys last year it was in your face how badly this team just needed some juice. They absolutely can use McMillan’s skill set but what they’re really lacking is a take the top off the defense threat to open up the field. Golden basically represents what they were trying to accomplish by bringing in Brandin Cooks or what they used to have before donating Amari Cooper to the Browns.

#13 Miami Dolphins – OT/OG Kelvin Banks Jr., Texas

This roster is in such rough shape, especially if they trade Ramsey, there is no shortage of directions they can go here. Will Johnson or Malaki Starks (as a Jevon Hollad replacement) will be heavily considered. However, the Dolphins absolutely have to continue improving the protection in front of Tua, if for no other reason than his lifelong health and wellbeing. Chris Grier does tend to skew toward the premium positions with his first round picks so drafting Banks here as a guard (if they choose to do so) is a little iffy to project, but Banks’ positional versatility should be seen as a benefit.

Miami took Patrick Paul in the second round last year likely to have a plan for when Terron Armstead was no longer on the roster. Paul may be good, but we have no idea how he will pan out. On the right side, the team might not move on from Austin Jackson in 2026 as they might not think the $2 million of cap savings is worth cutting him, but considering the fact he’s been lackluster his entire career I don’t think the Dolphins should view him as an entrenched starter for the indefinite future. Furthermore, they brought back Liam Eichenberg on a very modest one-year deal that screams “you’re our plan if we can’t figure out something better.”

Banks could potentially start at left tackle if he just beats out Paul for the job in camp. Or, he could beat out Eichenberg for a starting guard spot and eventually move outside to tackle in the event that either Paul doesn’t pan out or the team moves on from (or benches) Jackson.

#14 Indianapolis Colts – TE Colston Loveland, Michigan

Outside for Cam Ward to the Titans this is probably the most chalk projection out there. However, it’s chalk for. a reason as it jus makes a ton of sense. The Colts desperately need more production out of their tight end group and more so Steichen and Ballard’s jobs may be on the line this season so they need to do everything within their power to support either Richardson or Jones. (Ballard’s job has got to be on the line this year). Loveland, the high school wide receiver, would bring a receiver movement and skill set to an offense in dire need of what he has to offer.

#15 Atlanta Falcons – Edge Mykel Williams, Georgia

As I spoke to above, Atlanta figures to be very interested in trading down. They only have five picks in this draft and the can easily fall back from 15 and still land an impact defensive lineman. Given the way I have the board falling, the most likely candidates to come up to 15 would be the Broncos for Omarion Hampton from 20, the Steelers for Shedeur from 21, the Chargers for Will Johnson, Kenneth Grant, or Tet McMillan from 22, or the Browns the Giants for Shedeur from 33 and 34, respectively.

A trade with Pittsburgh makes a lot of sense. The Falcons wouldn’t fall back too far and one of Mykel or Mike Green has a good chance of being available at 21. If both are gone the team can still pivot to either Donovan Ezeiruaku or James Pearce for pass rushers, or take stock of who is there between Walter Nolen, Will Johnson, Jahdae Barron, Malaki Starks, and Nick Emmanwori. The issue with the Steelers is it’d likely cost them picks 21, 83, and 123 meaning their entire draft would be Shedeur and picks 156, 185, and 229. If they love Sanders that much they’ll gladly pay the price, but who knows if they view him as that much better than Dart and Shough.

The above applies to trading with the Chargers in copy-paste fashion. Atlanta can fall to 22, add more picks, and draft one of the players from that grouping. If Cleveland or New York wants Shedeur bad enough, each team can offer their early second rounder along with two thirds this year, plus a little more to make up the difference on the antiquated Jimmy Johnson chart that the NFL inexplicably still uses.

I’m a little skittish to actually predict one of these trades though. The overwhelming majority of projected trades don’t come to fruition. If I had to choose the most likely two of those four I’d say it’s Pittsburgh and New York. The Steelers may cave out of pure desperation, while John Mara himself might be in the war room demanding they do whatever it takes to get Shedeur.

Anyway, I know the Falcons never actually take a pass rusher in the first round, nor do they draft Georgia players, but this pick comes down to Williams and Mike Green, and they opt for Williams. Green is commonly connect to Atlanta, which shouldn’t come as a surprise since he led the nation in sacks last year. However, Williams has the incredible arm length that Raheem Morris and Jeff Ulbrich covet at the position, along with a clean background where Kirby Smart say “there’s no greater value than what [Williams] does in the locker room. ..[He’s a] great leader for us.”

#16 Arizona Cardinals – CB Will Johnson, Michigan

General managers are often asked how they strategize between drafting for need or taking the best player available. Almost 100% of them say something to the affect of “well hopefully the two marry up when you’re on the clock.” That could be the case here if the Cardinals are on the bull side of the Johnson debate. The former freshman phenom and sophomore All-American is going to fall out of the top 10 picks due to his lack of long-speed. His tape in 2024 was also up and down and he dealt with injuries as well.

Johnson’s slide is the Cardinals gain however. Viewed as a top 10 pick coming into the season, Arizona is potentially getting the steal of the draft here if Johnson can play up to his talent level in the pros. The Cardinals cannot go into next season with their outside corner situation there way that it is and Johnson represents a day one upgrade as a starter.

#17 Cincinnati Bengals – S Malaki Starks, Georgia

Paul Dehner Jr. is the Bengals beat writer for The Athletic and he does tremendous work with his pre-draft content. He’s very diligently walked through how the Bengals are ranking their positions of need, when in the draft they have traditionally targeted each position, and who fits the mold of the characteristics they’ve sought out in previous draft classes.

The place where he differs the most from the unanimous chorus of those analyzing the team from the outside is that Cincinnati does not view edge or defensive tackle to be as big of a need as the rest of the mock draft universe. Everyone has them taking a pass rusher, or at the very least a defensive tackle, in ink at 17. Mike Green is a common pairing since the team has historically taken chances on players with character concerns.

However, after the owners meetings Dehner wrote that his “adjusted view of how the Bengals view their positional priority with three weeks until Round 1:

1. 1. Guard/Tackle
   2. Safety
   3. Linebacker
   4. Edge
   5. Defensive Tackle
   6. Tight End

He also outlines the traits the team historically values: team captain, loves practice and loyal teammate, big schools (SEC-heavy) with nine of their last 10 first and second round picks having played in the College Football Playoff, a RAS of 8.31 or higher, massive offensive tackles and gap scheme maulers, waiting on tight ends, running backs, and linebackers, and the team using a top 30 visit on the player.

Based on all the above criteria, the three finalists and Starks, Nick Emmanwori, and Tyler Booker. Given the state of the defense and that Al Golden is stepping into his first year as defensive coordinator, it comes down to one of the safeties over Booker. Emmanwori has the advantage over Starks when it comes to the RAS (he posted a 10, Starks a 5.22) and the fact the Bengals met with Emmanwori prior to the draft.

However, what the team needs is someone to play next to, and compliment Jordan Battle. Battle is at his best working down hill and attacking the line of scrimmage, as opposed to patrolling in coverage. They (finally) need a Jessie Bates replacement. And if you ask Golden himself about what he values at the safety position he’ll tell you they must “[b]e able to command your team. I think that’s really important. You have to be audible and demonstrative. You have to defend the deep ball really well… There’s more than that, but that’s a good start. If you can start there, with those traits.. we’re talking to all the safety group that we’re on the same page and we can communicate and we can solve problems and more importantly, the empowerment. Be empowered to solve the problem. We can fix decisions, but we can’t fix indecision. We have to make sure we have decisive guys back there.”

That leads us to Starks. He’s an A-plus-plus character guy. He started as a freshman, had an elite sophomore year, and won a title while in Athens as a team captain. He was a do-everything safety (post, split-field, box, slot) and would compliment Battle where as Emmanwori duplicates Battle. Dane Brugler’s note in the Beast reads “He quickly established himself as one of Georgia’s leaders, both as a worker behind the scenes and on the field, often getting his teammates lined up properly based on offensive adjustments.”

#18 Seattle Seahawks – WR Tetairoa McMillan, Arizona

It’s insanely common to see an interior offensive lineman mocked to Seattle here but John Schneider has been showing us since 2010 that he simply doesn’t believe in using premium draft picks or paying big money for interior offensive lineman. Seattle is confident that Kubiak’s scheme will improve the offensive line play. Additionally, the team believes in centers Olu Oluwatimi and Jalen Sundell, so IF they go offensive line here it will be guard. They’d have their pick of the litter but even if my Tet projection is wrong I’d be surprised if they take Jackson or Zabel (assuming they don’t view Booker as a scheme fit).

Schneider believes in a best player available strategy so I’d say our four finalists are Tet, Barron, Mike Green, and Walter Nolen. The NFL routinely let’s smaller nickely/safety players like Barron fall in the draft (i.e. Brian Branch) despite the fact they’re just good football players. Out of receiver, pass rusher, and defensive tackle, defensive tackle is the most secure position in terms of players being under contract for multiple years.

Demarcus Lawrence and Cooper Kupp signed one-year deals masquerading as three-year pacts. MVS is signed to an actual one-year contract. JSN is the only receiver on the team under the age of 30 that is truly locked into the roster beyond 2025. Seattle has four Day 2 picks and pass rusher is significantly deeper than receiver this year. I know I just said Schneider takes the best player available but if he has those four graded similarly I’m looking for nuggets to decide who he may have the highest on his board.

McMillan would provide the Seahawks a third receivers they can put out wide or in the slot, joining Kupp and JSN. The organization has a lot riding on Darnold and the team might think McMillan is the best receiver in the draft.

For the record this is the first pick of my mock draft where my confidence in the projection has plummeted. I feel so much better about the proceeding 17, if for no other reason than the logic is sound. It’s sound here too but Seattle does insane things like take Germain Ifedi or Jordyn Brooks in the first round. They took Devon Witherspoon with the 5th pick of the draft after employing only go-go-gadget armed receivers for the previous 13 years. Trying to guess what they’re going to do is an exercise in futility. Also for the record this is John Schneider we’re talking about so he’s always liable to trade this pick.

#19 Tampa Bay Buccaneers – LB Jihaad Campbell, Alabama

This is another chalky pick and if you’re reading my blog of all blogs you’ve read this explanation 50 billion times by now. Campbell is probably a top 10 player in this draft that is going to slid a little bit due to positional value and his ongoing recovery from shoulder surgery. It’s Tampa’s dream scenario though given the state of their linebacker situation and Campbell projecting as a great fit in Todd Bowles’ scheme. Campbell also provides an ability to rush off the edge so you can move him around as a chess piece.

#20 Denver Broncos – RB Omarion Hampton, North Carolina

If you don’t follow Benjamin Allbright on Twitter, do so. He’s a very good reporter and is incredibly plugged into the Broncos. He cryptically tweeted out last year that Denver was taking Bo Nix by spelling out “It’s Bo” with the first letter of each sentence. Not to toot my own horn but I also called Bo to the Broncos early on and throughout the process last year.

Anyway, Allbright swears this pick is going to be Hampton if available and a defensive lineman if he’s not. I’ve basically always thought Denver was going to take Hampton if he was here since they don’t really need anything else and he would be a huge upgrade for them, so here we are.

Also of note; I used to have the Broncos trading up to 15 with the Falcons to secure Hampton. Sean Payton has a documented history of being aggressive and going to get his guy on draft day, draft capital be damned. Allbright is insisting the team won’t trade up, while both Adam Schefter and Albert Breer reported Denver calling around to see if they can get up the board.

#21 Pittsburgh Steelers – QB Shedeur Sanders, Colorado

I think if Pittsburgh does end up with Shedeur the better question is what pick will it be specifically. I don’t know how much 2025 or 2026 draft capital they’re going to want to give up to get Sanders because they may be scarred from the Kenny Pickett selection. Acting out of desperation, they took a quarterback in a class where the next quarterback didn’t come off the board until the 3rd round, ultimately to move on from him after two seasons. If the Steelers love Sanders that much then they’ll start calling all the way up the board after New Orleans passes.

If Pittsburgh doesn’t take any quarterback in the first round they seem poised to take a defensive lineman. The Steelers are pretty transparent with their 30 visits and they brought in a lot of defensive big men. The problem is it really looks like Pittsburgh dug their own grave getting into the Aaron Rodgers business and three years after being forced into the Kenny Pickett selection at 20 overall they’ll will end up forcing a quarterback at pick here at 21.

#22 Los Angeles Chargers – DT Kenneth Grant, Michigan

Joe Hortiz spent 26 years in Baltimore and so far has operated in the same manner as where he spent two and a half decades studying. They bolstered the trenches at number five last year. Los Angeles moved up in the second round to target someone specific. They were pretty shrewd in free agency this past March. Hortiz spoke about how what free agency moves they did make rounded out the roster well and they can just draft the best player available as opposed to being forced into selecting a position group. Any of this seem familiar?

The Ravens have long prioritized being stout in the trenches and in the middle of their defensive front. While Hortiz spoke favorably of the guys they have on the defensive interior, no one currently on the roster is an obvious candidate to replace the impact that Poona Ford and Morgan Fox had last year, both of whom left in free agency. Last year Harbaugh could have selected Kris Jenkins, Mike Sainristil, or Junior Colson at the top of round two but instead passed on all three for McConkey. They ultimately had Colson fall to them in the third and pull the trigger but my point is I think the Michigan connection is more a cherry on top than a needle mover with Grant.

#23 Green Bay Packers – Edge Mike Green, Marshall

Assuming Neither Tet or Golden get here the Packers streak of not drafting a first round receiver is likely to continue. It’s possible they take Egbuka but given their defensive situation and historical precedent defensive line and cornerback are probably the two primary targets here.

Green Bay has two big contract decision to make at defensive tackle. They have to decide if they’re going to exercise the 5th-year option of Devonte Wyatt on May 1st and they have to decide if they’ll cut Kenny Clark in 2026 to save $14.3 million against the cap. My guess is they will pick up Wyatt’s option and either re-do Clark’s deal or just eat the $31.37 cap hit as is, which means they can look to bolster the depth behind the two later in the draft instead of taking Walter Nolen here.

The Packers spent a first round pick on Lukas Van Ness in 2023 and so far he hasn’t provided the production they were hoping for. This team needs more pass rush juice opposite Rashan Gary and Mike Green is the best player on the board.

*TRADE*
Minnesota Receives: #31, #95, #226
Kansas City Receives: #24

#24 Kansas City Chiefs (F/MIN) – OT Josh Simmons, Ohio State

Finally, a trade. As I outlined above, the Vikings have to be the most likely team to trade down in the first round as they enter the draft with only four picks. Kansas City has two third rounders and have demonstrated a willingness to be aggressive in previous years. In 2022 I predicted they’d trade up with the Patriots to target a corner since 8+ rookies aren’t going to make the final cuts for a Super Bowl contender. The team also traded up last year for Xavier Worthy. Trading with the Vikings allows the Chiefs to leapfrog the offensive line desperate Houston Texans.

We’ve all witnessed two blowout Super Bowl losses for the Chiefs where their offensive line put on an embarrassing performance. Kansas City signed Jaylon Moore in free agency, but he’s never played a full season worth of start snaps (he logged 259 last year for example) and functionally speaking he’s a projection. He only received a two-year deal anyway, and the Chiefs can get out of it after one season if things go poorly. On the right side, the team can save $20 million next year by cutting Jawaan Taylor, which I almost guarantee happens.

Brett Veach and Andy Reid have been searching for a permanent solution as Mahomes’ blindside protector for five years now. Here’s Veach in his own words: “Obviously, any chance you have to draft a guy that you can project to be a starting left tackle, you do that – and they’re really hard to come by. You typically don’t find left tackles in free agency… Jaylon is under a two-year contract and Jawaan is getting toward the tail end of his contract, too, so you always have to have one eye on the present and one on the future.”

The common refrain on Josh Simmons is he’s the most gifted offensive tackle in the draft and had he played the entire season he would be an easy top 10 pick, if not top 5. However, due to his rehab and rawness, he’s going to slid on draft day (McShay also says there’s some character stuff, not that he’s a bad guy just that he doesn’t love football). But that’s the beauty of bringing him into the Kansas City situation. with the presence of Moore and Taylor the Chiefs don’t have to rush Simmons onto the field. They can develop him in the background and if he eventually steals one of the starting jobs, great, or if he just takes over in 2026 for the next 12 years then this trade up was beyond worth it.

#25 Houston Texans – OG Tyler Booker, Alabama

Houston has boxed themselves into a corner with this pick. Sure, the team brought int Cam Robinson, Ed Ingram, and Laken Tomlinson as three one-year stop gaps so they can literally just field an offensive line in 2025, but their situation is a disaster. I would not be surprised if they went Donovan Jackson here as they could try him as a tackle but two things.

First, ever since Nick Caserio took over he’s prioritized locker room culture guys. He wasn’t bashful about admitting this when he first arrived. The Alabama program describes Booker as “the top 1% of 1% of character guys.” A team captain, “..[he keeps everyone accountable in that locker room. …After the Vandy loss, Book is the guy who got everyone back on track.”

Second is there might be an Alabama connection. I don’t want to blow a sample size of three out of proportion, but with former Alabama player DeMeco Ryan as head coach, the Texans took John Metchie and Christian Harris on Day 2 in 2022 before trading a bounty in 2023 to fly up the board and draft Will Anderson.

*TRADE*
Los Angeles Receives: #40, #71, #131
New Orleans Receives: #26

#26 New Orleans (F/LAR) – QB Jackson Dart, Ole Miss

This is an overpay, even by the Jimmy Johnson chart (which only creates overpays), but the Saints need to entice the Rams to send this pick to them instead of the Browns or Giants, who are offering the 33rd and 34th picks, respectively.

This is self explanatory, right? New Orleans bypassed quarterback at nine so they jump back into the late first to get their guy and secure the 5th-year option. For whatever it’s worth, Todd McShay swears the Saints prefer Dart to Shedeur. It’s been reported that New Orleans is already calling teams in the back end of the first round to talk about trading up.

Anyway, if this happens brace yourself for a nauseating blitz of “the last time New Orleans took a first round quarterback he went to Ole Miss and it was some dude named Archie Manning!!!!” [barf]

#27 Baltimore Ravens – CB Jahdae Barron, Texas

Commonly paired with an edge rusher, Baltimore goes in a different direction in the most Baltimore of fashions. Every year it seems like the Ravens just sit there, have someone unexpectedly fall to them, take that player, and the rest of us say “how on earth did that guy fall all the way to the Ravens, what a steal!”

Welp, here’s your 2025 installment of an annual tradition like non-other. Jahdae Barron is the best player on the board here, hits one of the Ravens’ top needs (they allowed the second most passing yards on defense in 2024), and provides the team versatility on where they want to use him as he has extensive experience both on the boundary and in the slot.

#28 Detroit Lions – OL Grey Zabel, North Dakota State

Another team commonly paired with a pass rusher that I have going in another direction. Detroit could easily take an edge here, specifically Ezeiruaka, but they decide to play the board instead, knowing they can get a talented edge rusher on Day 2 where as the drop off at guard is significant.

For years the Lions’ super power has been their elite offensive line, trotting out five good-to-great starters. The team lost Kevin Zeitler in free agency, so a replacement is needed. Zabel showcased his skills at the Senior Bowl, proving he is worth his salt despite playing at an FCS school. This, plus his five position versatility, leads me to believe he will get drafted in the first round, especially in a down offensive lineman class.

Zabel seems like a Campbell guy as well. He was a team captain in 2024 and everyone in the program loves him. The coaches rave about his character, Cam Miller (NDSU’s quarterback) said Zabel is “one of the best leaders I’ve ever been around.” and an NFL scout said “[f]ootball, farming and his family – not sure he cares about much else.”

#29 Washington Commanders – S Nick Emmanwori, South Carolina

Washington enters this draft with only five picks so they’re a candidate to trade down. Not wanting to oversaturate this mock with trades, however, they stick and pick a player they didn’t anticipate being available. The Commanders have needs at every position on defense and their most dire situation may very well be safety. Emmanwori is commonly comped to Kam Chancellor, so do you think Dan Quinn will be interested?

#30 Buffalo Bills – DT Walter Nolen, Ole Miss

Pegging where Nolen gets drafted is impossible. The former #1 recruit in the nation coming out of high school, his flashes are that of a top 10 pick. His lack of consistency and “background” questions will push him down the board. It doesn’t seem so much that he’s a bad guy or anything, it’s more a question of his effort level and passion for football. He could just as easily go 10-19 spots higher than this.

The Bills aren’t complaining though. They’re likely to just sit at 30 and take the best defensive player on the board, regardless of position. They do desperately need a corner, but they won’t pass on the potential of pairing Nolen with Ed Oliver and making Mahomes’ and Burrows’ lives a living nightmare.

#31 Minnesota Vikings (F/KC) – OG Donovan Jackson, Ohio State

The main reason Minnesota chose to trade with the Chiefs instead of one of the quarterback needy teams is because it allowed them to stay in the first round. I wouldn’t be blown away if they traded down again from here to add more picks, but in this scenario Jackson is too good to pass on.

The Vikings guaranteed $101 million in free agent contracts to boost the interior of their roster when they brought in Ryan Kelly, Will Fries, Jonathan Allen, and Javon Hargrave. You don’t do that if you aren’t trying to build an immediate Super Bowl contender. Minnesota is on the clock for the rookie quarterback contract window, and after missing his entire rookie year with a knee injury, bringing in Jackson provides for five quality blockers protecting J.J. McCarthy.

#32 Philadelphia Eagles – Edge Donovan Ezeiruaku, Boston College

Always one to stockpile the trenches, Howie Roseman appears primed to go to his bread and butter after losing Josh Sweat and Milton Williams to free agency and Brandon Graham to retirement. A consensus All-American in 2024, Ezeiruaka ranked up 16.5 sacks in his final season at Boston College. A two year team captain, Ezeiruaka has long arms (34″) and the bendy athleticism to get around the arc as a pass rusher.

ROUND TWO

#33 Cleveland Browns – QB Tyler Shough, Louisville

#34 New York Giants – QB Jalen Milroe, Alabama

#35 Tennessee Titans – WR Jayden Higgins, Iowa State

#36 Jacksonville Jaguars – CB Trey Amos, Ole Miss

#37 Las Vegas Raiders – CB Maxwell Hairston, Kentucky

#38 New England Patriots – WR Emeka Egbuka, Ohio State

#39 Chicago Bears (F/CAR) – Edge James Pearce Jr., Tennessee

#40 Los Angeles Rams (F/NO) – CB Azareye’h Thomas, Florida State

#41 Chicago Bears – OT Josh Conerly Jr., Oregon

#42 New York Jets – TE Mason Taylor, LSU

#43 San Francisco 49ers – Edge Landon Jackson, Arkansas

#44 Dallas Cowboys – RB Quinshon Judkins, Ohio State

#45 Indianapolis Colts – LB Carson Schwesinger, UCLA

#46 Atlanta Falcons – S Xavier Watts, Notre Dame

#47 Arizona Cardinals – WR Luther Burden III, Missouri

#48 Miami Dolphins – CB Benjamin Harrison, Notre Dame

#49 Cincinnati Bengals – OG Tate Ratledge, Georgia

#50 Seattle Seahawks – OL Marcus Mbow, Purdue

#51 Denver Broncos – WR Jaylin Noel, Iowa State

#52 Seattle Seahawks – TE Elijah Arroyo, Miami

#53 Tampa Bay Buccaneers – Edge Jordan Burch, Oregon

#54 Green Bay Packers – WR Jalen Royals, Utah State

#55 Los Angeles Chargers – RB TreVeyon Henderson, Ohio State

#56 Buffalo Bills – CB Shavon Revel Jr., East Carolina

#57 Carolina Panthers – WR Jack Bech, TCU

#58 Houston Texans – OT Aireontae Ersery, Minnesota

#59 Baltimore Ravens – Edge JT Tuimoloau, Ohio State

#60 Detroit Lions – Edge Nic Scourton, Texas A&M

#61 Washington Commanders – DT Tyleik Williams, Ohio State

#62 Buffalo Bills – WR Kyle Williams, Washington State

#63 Kansas City Chiefs – OG Jonah Savaiinaea, Arizona

#64 Philadelphia Eagles – DT Darius Alexander, Toldeo

ROUND THREE

#65 New York Giants – WR Tre Harris, Ole Miss

#66 Kansas City Chiefs (F/TEN) – Edge Oluwafemi Oladejo, UCLA

#67 Cleveland Browns – RB Kaleb Johnson, Iowa

#68 Las Vegas Raiders – OT Ozzy Trapilo, Boston College

#69 – New England Patriots – C Jared Wilson, Georgia

#70 Jacksonville Jaguars – WR Elik Ayomanor, Stanford

#71 Los Angeles Rams (F/NO) – Edge Ashton Gillotte, Louisville

#72 Chicago Bears – RB Dylan Sampson, Tennessee

#73 New York Jets – TE Terrence Ferguson, Oregon

#74 Carolina Panthers – Edge Jack Sawyer, Ohio State

#75 San Francisco 49ers – CB Jacob Parrish, Kansas State

#76 Dallas Cowboys – DT T.J. Sanders, South Carolina

#77 New England Patriots (F/ATL) – Edge Jack Sawyer, Ohio State

#78 Arizona Cardinals – OT Anthony Belton, North Carolina State

#79 Houston (F/MIA) – DT Omarr Norman-Lott, Tennesee

#80 Indianapolis Colts – Edge David Walker, Central Arkansas

#81 Cincinnati Bengals – LB Demetrius Knight, South Carolina

#82 Seattle Seahawks – CB Darian Porter, Iowa State

#83 Pittsburgh Steelers – RB Cam Skattebo, Arizona State

#84 Tampa Bay Buccaneers – Edge Bradyn Swinson, LSU

#85 Denver Broncos – DT Shemar Turner, Texans A&M

#86 Los Angeles Chargers – TE Harold Fannin Jr., Bowling Green

#87 Green Bay Packers – CB Nohl Williams, California

#88 Jacksonville Jaguars (F/MIN) – RB RJ Harvey, Central Florida

#89 Houston Texans – WR Tory Horton, Colorado State

#90 Los Angeles Rams – WR Tez Johnson, Oregon

#91 Baltimore Ravens – OG Dylan Fairchild, Georgia

#92 Seattle Seahawks (F/DET) – Edge Sai’vion Jones, LSU

#93 New Orleans Saints (F/WAS) – OT Charles Grant, William & Mary

#94 Cleveland Browns (F/BUF) – Edge Princely Umanmielen, Ole Miss

#95 Minnesota Vikings (F/KC) – S Kevin Winston Jr., Penn State

#96 Philadelphia Eagles – OT Cameron Williams, Texas

#97 Minnesota Vikings – DT Alfred Collins, Texas

#98 Miami Dolphins – S Billy Bowman Jr., Oklahoma

#99 New York Giants – DT Ty Hamilton, Ohio State

#100 San Francisco 49ers – RB Bhayshul Tuten, Virginia Tech

#101 Los Angeles Rams – S Andrew Mukuba, Texas

#102 Detroit Lions – DT Joshua Farmer, Florida State