We made it. Yay. The wait for the worst draft in a generation is over. I’m assuming everyone’s mock draft this year will be a bloodbath as the lack of intel and wide varying of player evaluations in this class make it impossible to project. But we’ll try.
At this point I believe picks 2-4 will be Bailey, Reese, and Love in some order. If you guess it right, well, congrats. After that it’s a big “who the fuck knows.”
Anyway, here’s my guess:
#1 Las Vegas Raiders – QB Fernando Mendoza, Indiana
Next.
#2 New York Jets – Edge David Bailey, Texas Tech
As the world knows, this is either Bailey or Reese (and I expect whoever it isn’t to go 3). I think it’s Bailey. The hybrid intentions of Aaron Glenn for his defense do point toward Reese, but Bailey’s projection to edge rusher is much clearer, and he’s more “impact now” than Reese. If Glenn wants to be around in 2027 when they finally select their next quarterback he needs to show improvement this season.
#3 Arizona Cardinals – Edge Arvell Reese, Ohio State
We’ve all known for awhile the Cardinals want to trade down and now “all of a sudden” everyone in the national media is running a PR blitz that Arizona is going to take Love “coincidentally” one spot above where Love has been projected to go since the combine? Color me skeptical.
I’m not saying there’s no chance they won’t take Love. He might be the #1 player on the board, who the fuck knows. But with his four first round picks as Cardinals GM Monti Ossenfort has taken a left tackle, two defensive tackles, and a wide receiver. I know we’re “throwing out positional value this year” but does Mike LaFleur strike you as someone that’s going to spend a premium resource on running back? When have McVay or his brother done anything close to spending the 3rd pick of the draft on a running back? Even when Shanahan traded for CMC the trade didn’t involve a first rounder.
I mean, if ownership wants Love and mandates it then that’s that. But I think this is really Reese/Bailey vs Mauigoa. Reporting is Mauigoa’s back is fine and *even if* he needs a procedure it’s minor and a quick rehab stint, but I think it’s enough of a tiebreaker for the team to chase the upside with Reese.
#4 Tennessee Titans – Jeremiyah Love, Notre Dame
Apparently Saleh is obsessed with Sonny Styles and I don’t doubt it, but I’ve believed this will happen since the combine and I’m not backing off it now. If I’m wrong I’m wrong.
#5 New York Giants – WR Jordyn Tyson, Arizona State
I can’t believe we’re here with Tyson. He was going to fall into the 20’s like a month ago because of his injuries now he’s being talked about as a top 9 lock. The reporting is there that there’s legit smoke and fire about the Giants’ intrigue in Tyson given how much time they’ve spent looking into and meeting with him. I think New York’s three main targets with 5 and 10 are Tyson, Styles, and Downs. What ultimately drives this decision is the Giants don’t think Tyson has any chance of getting to 10, where as Styles and more so Downs (playing non-premium positions) have a much better chance to be there later.
#6 Cleveland Browns – OT Francis Mauigoa, Miami
I’m going to be mad when this ends up being Tate because I’ve thought that for months. I just didn’t think Mauigoa would get past both Arizona and New York. Anyway, Cleveland desperately needs to do something about their offensive line and Mauigoa is the best tackle in the draft. If they opt for Fano give his positional versatility I wouldn’t be surprise but at the end of the day this is the NFL and they’re going to take the tackle over the iOL with the 6th pick. Given his back issue who knows where Mauigoa ultimately ends up but it doesn’t seem like it should drop him too far.
#7 Washington Commanders – LB Sonny Styles, Ohio State
I already figured Dan Quinn would love Styles given his experience with Wagner and it’s now being reported that is indeed the case. Tate could be tempting here but I think they chase the unlimited upside of Styles and having Wagner mentor him.
#8 New Orleans Saints – WR Carnell Tate, Ohio State
If I get the first 7 picks right this will likely come down to Tate or Bain. The tiebreaker is Shough but also Chris Olave might be one concussion away from retirement.
#9 Kansas City Chiefs – Edge Reuben Bain Jr., Miami
I think this is a sprint-the-card-in pick if Bain gets here.
#10 New York Giants (F/CIN) – S Caleb Downs, Ohio State
As promised… (Ed Reed, Kyle Hamilton, John Harbaugh, blah blah).
#11 Miami Dolphins – OL Spencer Fano, Utah
I seriously think this is Fano’s floor. I think Green Bay South is going to kick off this rebuild building up the trenches. Fano has 5 position potential so Miami can deploy him where it makes their line the best as a whole.
#12 Dallas Cowboys – CB Mansoor Delane, LSU
I’m not buying the Cowboys are willing to send off both 12 and 20 to move up. Their defense needs multiple people but instead they’re going to chase 1 mediocre prospect after demonstrating 12 years of draft discipline? If Styles gets past Washington maybe they’ll do something smaller but I don’t foresee that at all
Anyway, Dallas gets the best (healthy) cover corner in the draft to help their trash defense.
#13 Los Angeles Rams (F/ATL) – WR Makai Lemon, USC
#Chalk. The media seems to have moved off this after months of it being everywhere seemingly for no other reason than they’re bored. At what point do we need to actual the team needs Puka insurance? At what point do we need to acknowledge Adams’ age? The Rams are in a win-this-year window for the remainder of Stafford’s career. Who are they taking here that immediately helps more?
#14 Baltimore Ravens – OG Olaivavega Ioane, Penn State
I’m going to be mad when this is Sadiq and I changed it last minute. But does Jesse Minter strike you as a flashy TE guy or a “blow them off the spot” offensive line guy? The Ravens have a need at guard and after losing Linderbaum the interior itself needs reinforcements. This whole thing lives and dies with Lamar and King Henry.
*TRADE*
Tampa Receives: #17, #118
Detroit Receives: #15
#15 Detroit Lions (F/TB) – OT Kadyn Proctor, Alabama
I don’t love projecting trades anymore because the odds you’re right are so slim, even if the logic is sound. However, there’s a lot of smoke with this. There isn’t anyone at 15 the Bucs have to have. The Lions (reportedly but it makes sense) love Proctor. Detroit, Carolina, Pittsburgh, Philadelphia, Cleveland (if they don’t go OT at 6), and Chicago all pick from 17-25 are eyeing OT’s and potentially jockeying for position. If you want someone specifically, the Bucs and Jets are listening to your offers.
Holmes has also demonstrated he will get aggressive. He went flying up the board for Jamo. He basically spent three 3rd round picks on Teslaa last year. The Lions have 9 picks, including an extra 4th, and Super Bowl aspirations.
#16 New York Jets (F/IND) – TE Kenyon Sadiq, Oregon
The chalk pick here has become Omar Cooper and I wouldn’t be surprised if that happened. I was going to put Jermod McCoy here until this morning. I’ve read mixed things about whether or not McCoy is falling due to his health concerns. I felt like given that this is their second first-rounder and the desperate need at the position it would make sense for the Jets to swing for the moon with McCoy. However, if we’re back to 2026 impact players with an eye toward a 2027 QB, and we don’t love the WR’s here for value reasons, then bring in Sadiq.
#17 Tampa Bay Buccaneers – Edge Akheem Mesidor, Miami
This has become chalk but for good reason. Tampa needs more pass rush juice and the team believes they are in a win-now window and after the first wave of pass rushers Mesidor figures to be the one who can contribute the most immediately.
#18 Minnesota Vikings – S Dillon Thieneman, Oregon
More chalk but I had this in 1.0 and have believed it for months. I’m not moving off it now.
#19 Carolina Panthers – OT Monroe Freeling, Georgia
I don’t think people are considering Ekwonu’s injury enough into Carolina’s math. Walker is on a one year deal and IF the Panthers wanted to they could move on from Moton after this year. If they don’t he’s also turning 32 this season. Bringing Freeling into the pipeline makes sense for a team that needs a definitive answer on Bryce Young.
#20 Dallas Cowboys (F/GB) – S Emmanuel McNeil-Warren, Toledo
This could easily be edge but I sort of think that between Gary, Ezeiruaku, and Houston the Cowboys may be comfortable with that trio to not *force* a pass rusher here, especially with Quinnen Williams in the middle.
Dallas needs better safety play and, well, McNeil-Warren is the 3rd of three projected first round safeties.
#21 Pittsburgh Steelers – OT Caleb Lomu, Utah
I just don’t know how Pittsburgh isn’t going to take an offensive tackle in the first round. Broderick Jones has struggled early in his career and now has suffered a setback in his recovery from a very serious neck injury. Fautanu has been ok but if a tackle is available and he can move inside and upgrade the interior that could be an option. Also Aaron Rodgers is 100 and they need to protect him if they want to achieve their 9-8 win record objective.
#22 Los Angeles Chargers – OL Gennings Dunker, Iowa
As evidence by the team taking a running back at 22 last year in a loaded running back class, the Chargers have a middle finger for anyone that says “positional value.” Anyway, apparently the NFL can’t stop talking about Dunker, Bisontis, and Rutledge. I’m skeptical any of them actually get into the first round however, Dunker is a college OT (from a famed OL college program Harbaugh knows well) that is projected to move inside to guard, where Los Angeles desperately needs help. That college OT experience, however, gives the team flexibility in the event they sustain injuries at tackle again.
#23 Philadelphia Eagles – OT Blake Miller, Clemson
Howie is the best in the league in addressing a problem a year in advance, and it’s always a good bet he drafts a trench player.
#24 Cleveland Browns (F/JAX) – WR Denzel Boston, Washington
Cleveland went OT at 6 so WR it is at 24.
#25 Chicago Bears – OT Max Iheanachor, Arizona State
This entire regime’s job security depends on Caleb Williams panning out. The team needs to address their defense but they have two second round picks. The team is unsure about Trapilo’s health. They retained Braxton Jones but he’s had his own injuries over the years. Iheanachor needs seasoning but unlimited upside, so him being able to sit behind Wright and Jones to start his career before getting thrown to the wolves makes a lot of sense.
*TRADE*
Bills Receive: #36, #67
Raiders Receive: #26, #182
#26 Las Vegas Raiders (F/BUF) – WR Omar Cooper Jr., Indiana
I really think the Bills are going to look to trade back since they don’t have their 2nd rounder. Vegas has two 4ths and may be willing to part with their 2nd and 3rd in order to go get Mendoza his buddy from Indiana.
#27 San Francisco 49ers – CB Jermod McCoy, Tennessee
The 9ers need a corner anyway but they will jump at the chance to add someone with McCoy’s talent this late in the first round.
#28 Houston Texans – Edge R Thomas Mason, Oklahoma
The Texans could easily opt for an offensive lineman here but I think they’ve slapped enough band-aids on up front that they don’t have to force it, especially given they have two second round picks. This came down to Thomas, Allen, and McNeil-Warren, with Thomas winning out based on the NFL being a copycat league and the Seahawks just won the Super Bowl running like 8 deep at pass rusher.
#29 Kansas City Chiefs – CB Colton Hood, Tennessee
After shipping out McDuffie Kansasy City needs a replacement.
#30 Miami Dolphins – WR KC Concepcion, Texas A&M
The Dolphins decided to bet on Malik Willis. Drafting Fano and Concepcion is basically the team purchasing a home insurance policy on that bet.
#31 New England Patriots – Edge Keldric Faulk, Auburn
The Patriots needed more pass rush juice even before Chaisson left in free agency. I also hate how low I have Faulk since last time I said he would definitely go in the top 15 since players of this archetype don’t last long in the draft.
*TRADE*
Seahawks Receive: #38, #106
Texans Receive: #32
#32 Houston Texans (F/SEA) – CB Avieon Terrell, Clemson
The thing I’m most confident in behind Mendoza going 1 is Seattle trading down. They only have 4 picks this draft. There is NO way Schneider just sits here and picks.
Houston is also famously known for trading on draft day. Armed with an extra 2nd rounder it’s only a small jump up at the cost of a 4th rounder to secure the 5th year contract on another player. 2 years ago Kamari Lassiter fell because he ran a 4.6 40 and then ended up with a bunch of dawgs and helped form the best defense in football.
Terrell ran a 4.6 40 but “has that dawg in him” and the Texans are a little thin at corner behind Lassiter and Stingley.
Note
I don’t believe the Cardinals will select Ty Simpson atop the second round. I initially was going to have them move up for a RT in the mid-to-late 20’s but all 7 went by pick 25. I think if they don’t get a tackle prior to Day 2 it increases the likelihood they take Simpson but it still makes no sense to me. There’s no rush, LaFleur doesn’t need to force his QB decision ahead of the 2027 draft.
I think Simpson either just falls to Pittsburgh at 53 or the Steelers get aggressive at a certain point and they just go and get him.
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