Too Calm Tuesday – Everyone Chill 9/25

Sep 17, 2017; New Orleans, LA, USA; New Orleans Saints quarterback Drew Brees (9) during warmups before a game against the New England Patriots at the Mercedes-Benz Superdome. Mandatory Credit: Derick E. Hingle-USA TODAY Sports

Welcome to the latest edition of Too Calm Tuesday – Everybody Chill.  This space is a weekly column, after overreaction Monday, to tell everyone to chill out.  The same risk applies to a scorching hot take in this section as well, remaining so calm could lead us to be wrong because we aren’t quick enough to realize that a trend is just the new reality.  No one bats 1,000, but we’re going to try while hopefully easing some nerves.  Welcome to Too Calm Tuesday – Everyone Chill 9/25

New England Patriots

Making a second consecutive appearance in this space, the Patriots simply looked overmatched, overwhelmed, and flat out bad against Detroit.  Nothing worked.  The defense put up zero resistance against the Lions’ ground game, and for the second straight week as long as Stephon Gilmore wasn’t covering the targeted receiver I’m pretty sure the completion percentage was 100%.

On offense, New England could not get anything going.  The ground game was uninspiring, Gronk was bracketed all night, and no other receiver could consistently win their 1 on 1 matchup.  The Lions pressured Brady on only 6 of 28 drop backs, but they seemed to all be coverage pressures.  No Lions defender just fired off the line, tooled an offensive lineman, and disrupted Brady.  Brady danced around for 4, 5, 6 seconds before getting taken down because no one was open.

We expect the defense to be bad because, well, it’s absolute garbage, but we don’t expect to ever see the offense look the way it did Sunday night.  Also of concern, the Patriots, who annually are an upper tier special teams unit, rank only 23rd in special teams DVOA through three weeks.

It’s still not time to panic.  No, Brady isn’t falling off the cliff in front of our eyes.  No, the time has not run out on the Patriots dynasty.  No, no one else is winning the AFC East.

Since 2001 (the year Brady took over) the Patriots have started 2-2 or worse (I realize they are not 2-2 yet) 6 times.  Here are those seasons:

2017: Started 2-2, finished 13-3, lost in the Super Bowl
2014: Started 2-2, finished 12-4, won Super Bowl
2012: Started 1-2 (then 2-2), finished 12-4, hosted/lost AFC Championship
2005: Started 2-2, finished 10-6, lost in divisional round
2003: Started 2-2, finished 14-2, won Super Bowl
2001: Started 1-3, finished 11-5, won Super Bowl

New England played Sunday night without three key defensive starters, which is terrible for a defense that already sucks.  One of those starters was Trey Flowers, who is the only guy on this roster that can generate a pass rush.

But the warning signs are there; Hightower looks old and slow, Devin McCourty looks regressed due to age, Harmon is blowing coverages left and right, any corner not named Gilmore looks worse than a high schooler.

Yet we just did this last year, and so many times before that.  Until the Patriots aren’t in the AFC Championship game, expect them to be there.  Right now Miami might be better because their defense is playing at such a high level (it was ranked 1st in defensive DVOA through two weeks), but do we really believe the Patriots are going to lose at home to the Dolphins to drop to 1-3?  No, we don’t.  So we are probably looking at a 2-2 start for New England, which based on the history of the Brady/Belichick dynasty, means they’re absolutely fine.

New Orleans Saints

Another repeat appearance from last week, the Saints went into Atlanta and knocked off the Falcons in a shootout.  So, if they won, and are now 2-1, why does everyone need to chill?  Because, I’m assuming, everyone is freaking out about their defense.

I’m not a huge fan of just counting point totals for or against, but the Saints have allowed the most points in the league through three games.  Woof.  In fact, if we’re going to talk about Super Bowl contenders, shouldn’t we want the Saints to have a better point differential that +1? Yes, yes we do.

The Saints are second in points scored (you’re shocked, I know), so all is quiet on the Western front for Drew Brees and company.  But the defense thus far is clearly a problem.  The Saints rank 23rd overall in defensive grading by ProFootballFocus, with the 30th ranked coverage grade.  That coverage grade is the root of New Orleans’ woes on the defensive side of the ball.

Unfortunately, the Saints didn’t get good news on that front earlier today.

No bueno.

There are still reasons for optimism.  Marshon Lattimore and Marcus Williams have yet to play up to the performance levels they demonstrated as rookie, both of which were outstanding.  You may be inclined to say maybe they weren’t as good as we saw last year, but I’m inclined to believe 2017 is more indicative of their talents, as these are two guys I really liked in the draft process and then they put together phenomenal rookie campaigns.

Along the front, Cameron Jordan is actually getting help applying pressure.  Both Alex Okafor and rookie Marcus Davenport are applying some pressure, though on limited snaps.  Still, any help Jordan can get is a win for this defense.

The defense will eventually click, there’s just too much talent for it not to.  The Saints may have some coverage issues all season as Ken Crawley has regressed back to his 2016 form after putting together a solid 2017.  There is now more evidence that Crawley is the 2016 guy than the 2017 guy.  Still, New Orleans runs three deep at safety and now boasts more than one fruitful pass rusher.

Atlanta Falcons

I guess we’re touring the NFC South for the moment.  After losing the shootout to the Saints, Atlanta dropped to 1-2 and their defense looks completely inept without Keanu Neal and Deion Jones.  Specifically, we all just watched what a nightmare matchup Alvin Kamara is for Atlanta if they don’t have Jones, as there is no linebacker on this team capable of matching up with a weapon like Kamara in the passing game.  I mean, Karama had 20 targets on Sunday.  20!  He’s a running back!

But the Falcons have now lost to the defending Super Bowl champion Eagles and the Saints.  Is that really such a blemish on their resume?  Yes, losing Neal and Jones is critical so there may be a real issue here, but three of their next four games are at home.  If that stretch goes poorly (1-3) it will be the appropriate time to worry.

There are already warning signs as the Falcons are ranked last as a pass rushing unit, but they sport a top ten coverage unit and are a well coached team with a high powered offense.

Los Angeles Chargers

Similar to the Falcons, the Chargers are 1-2 but their losses have come to the Chiefs and the Rams.  Those two teams are a combined 6-0, and rank first (Rams) and third (Chiefs) in point differential so far this season.  Should this really count as a blemish against the Chargers?

Oh, and Los Angeles hasn’t even had Joey Bosa on the field yet.

The Chargers are currently an elite offense enjoying a wonderful breakout from 2017 7th overall pick Mike Williams.  Williams’ entire rookie season was essential ruined due to injuries, but so far through three games he has been everything this team was hoping for when they selected him in the top 10 of the draft.

So far the Chargers are only middling in coverage, coming in at 18th.  There’s two main culprits to this: Casey Hayward isn’t playing up to his career norm and, as mentioned previously, Joey Bosa has yet to take the field.  Once both of these circumstances are rectified the Chargers defense will end up the elite unit we believed it to be, especially with Derwin James on his way to defensive rookie of the year.

While I’m Here

You CAN freak out about the roughing the passer rules.  No, I don’t think I’m the first to the party on this, I get people have been complaining all season.  But my god it is ruining the game.  Clay Matthews has 3 roughing the passer penalties this season and has had 4 TOTAL throughout the entirety of his career prior to 2018.

You aren’t allowed to even sneeze on the quarterbacks anymore.  I mean for fuck sakes, just give them flags on their waists already.  Perhaps even worse is the inconsistency with which these penalties are being called.  In week two the flag on Matthews extended the game for the Vikings, while in the Jaguars Patriots game the exact same thing happened twice to Brady, but there were no flags thrown.  On all three plays there should have been no flags, but the refs aren’t calling it the same across all the games.

And last night in the Steelers Bucs game, I watched Vince Williams throw Ryan Fitzpatrick to the ground approximately 30 minutes after the whistle blew the play dead.  It was maybe even 35 minutes.  Did they throw a flag? Nahh.  I guess roughing the passer penalties are only for live ball action. (I get that by definition it should have been an unnecessary roughness penalty, but, you get my point)

filed under: NFL

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