2018 NFL Season and Awards Predictions

Welcome to the 2018 NFL season and awards predictions.  This is the final installment in our 2018 NFL preview series.  If you haven’t had a chance to check out the earlier pieces, be sure to go back and catch up on all the action.  Here we are going to pick the 6 playoff teams from each conference, play out the playoffs, and predict award winners for the major awards.  Onto the 2018 NFL season and awards predictions.

AFC Playoff Standings

1 – New England Patriots – AFC East
2 – Los Angeles Chargers – AFC West
3 – Pittsburgh Steelers – AFC North
4 – Tennessee Titans – AFC South
5 – Jacksonville Jaguars – Wildcard
6 – Baltimore Ravens – Wildcard

Team I don’t have the balls to predict as a wildcard but really want to: Cincinnati Bengals

Such standings would bless us with two divisional matchups on Wildcard Weekend in the AFC.  With New England and San Diego Los Angeles getting byes, the first games in the AFC playoffs would be the Ravens at Steelers and the Jaguars at Titans.

The AFC North battle is a team built on offense against a team built on defense.  The Steelers have one of the best quarterbacks in the game, while the Ravens are at the other end of that spectrum.  Pittsburgh is loaded with skill position weapons and a good offensive line, while the Ravens are again on the other end of that spectrum.

On the flip side, the Ravens defense has an elite secondary and looks to be one of the best defenses in football for about the millionth season in a row.  The Steelers never replaced Ryan Shazier, and the defense was completely different after his horrible injury.  There are plenty of questions of how well the Steelers will be able to cover in 2018, but the Ravens don’t figure to be a team capable of taking advantage of that particular weakness.

The home team wins, and Pittsburgh moves on to travel west to Los Angeles.

In our other divisional matchup, we have the two most recent teams the Patriots beat the last time football was in season.  With the Pittsburgh victory automatically sending the Steelers to Los Angeles, the winner of the AFC South clash gets another shot at New England.

We know what the Jags are this season.  Elite defense, great running back, improved offensive line, wildly inconsistent quarterback.  That combination gave the Patriots all they could handle last year in the AFC Championship.

We don’t yet know what the Titans will be this season.  I’m buying into the moves they have made and that Matt LaFleur will put Mariota in situations more tailored to his skillset.  The Titans go three deep at both edge rusher and corner, so the makings for a good defense are there.

This matchup will probably look a lot like the Jaguars playoff win against the Bills.  The Titans aren’t loaded at the skill positions, though Corey Davis, Derrick Henry, and Dion Lewis are all talented.  The Jaguars defense should be able to keep the lid on the Titans new look offense.

Depending on which Bortles shows up, the Titans could also completely shut down the Jaguars.  Someone has to win though, and the one thing we know for sure between these two teams is that the Jaguars have an elite defense.  Jacksonville moves on for a rematch in Foxborough.

The Chargers matchup with the Steelers (or anyone) well.  They have one of the best pass rushes in football and can apply pressure to Roethlisberger.  They have one of the best secondaries in football and can match up with all the weapons the Steelers can spread across the field.

The worry is the Chargers were one of the worst run defenses in football last year and they didn’t do much to address it.  That doesn’t bode well against Le’Veon Bell.

On the flip side, the Chargers matchup well against the Steelers defense as they have plenty of passing game weapons to take advantage of Pittsburgh’s inability to cover.  They also have a sound ground game to keep the defense honest.

Los Angeles has the worst home field advantage in football, but at least they will get a time zone advantage.  The Chargers have the better roster and the game isn’t being played in Pittsburgh.  Los Angeles advances.

The Jaguars will be out for blood in their rematch with New England.  The Jaguars are built to beat the Patriots.  Great pass rush, great coverage, great running back.  That has been the model for over the past decade.  We saw how close they came in January 2017.

The Patriots will still prevail, however.  For starters, just bet on Brady and Belichick in a home playoff game.  Furthermore, despite how good the defense is, when it mattered most Brady went right down the field on two consecutive drives to propel the Patriots to Super Bowl LII.  You can’t stop Brady, you can just contain him.

So the game will be decided on the other side of the field, and after watching Super Bowl LII it’s fair to wonder if the Patriots defense is capable of winning them a game.  Against the Jags they are.  We don’t know how the corner play behind Gilmore will be for the Patriots this season, but the Jags don’t have the type of receiver talent to take advantage of a potential weakness on the Patriots roster.  Furthermore, the additions of Danny Shelton and Adrian Clayborn, coupled with the return of Dont’a Hightower, will result in the Patriots having one of the best run defenses in football this year.  They can contain Fournette.

So in the end the game will come down to Bortles versus Belichick.  Come on..

The Chargers are also built to beat the Patriots.  They have the pass rush, coverage, ground game, and passing weapons.  The roster is absolutely loaded.  Except for their deficiency at run defense.

The matchup chameleon Patriots will use their entire stable of running backs in this game to pound away at the Chargers defense, taking Joey Bosa and Melvin Ingram out of the equation.  This isn’t the first time we will have seen such a tactic.  In 2013 the Patriots game plan against the Colts was to take Brady out of the game and run the ball 500 times.  It worked, as the Patriots won 43-22.

This Chargers team is much better than that Colts team, but the point remains.  The Patriots will pound the ball and take opportune chances in the pass game.

The Chargers will be able to move the ball against the Patriots.  Melvin Gordon may be limited, but Rivers can move the ball against this secondary.  The hope is that Gilmore can slow down Keenan Allen, but Rivers still has plenty of other options.  For once, the Patriots will be the team that looks to run the ball and shorten the game, while the Chargers will want to light up the scoreboard and let their pass rushers go to work.

Again, I’m going with Brady and Belichick at home in the playoffs.  The Chargers, top to bottom, have the better roster.  They also have proven a propensity for finding spectacular ways to lose games, and the Patriots find ways to win.

NFC Playoff Standings

1 – Atlanta Falcons – NFC South
2 – Los Angeles Rams – NFC West
3 – Philadelphia Eagles – NFC East
4 – Green Bay Packers – NFC North
5 – New Orleans Saints – Wildcard
6 – Minnesota Vikings – Wildcard

Team I don’t have the balls to predict as a wildcard but really want to: Dallas Cowboys

What a Wildcard Weekend this would be if we got two divisional matchups in the AFC, and then the NFC title game rematch plus Brees versus Rodgers.  We’ll start with the reigning champion Eagles again hosting the Vikings.

I think what this game really comes down to is the Eagles dominating defensive front against the Vikings subpar offensive line.  Both teams have a good defense, and the Vikings win the battle of skill position players while the Eagles have the better quarterback.

But like I said, this game will be won in the trenches.  While the Vikings also have an elite defensive front and pass rush, the Eagles have an elite offensive line and will be able to slow the Vikings assault much more effectively than the Vikings will be able to slow the Eagles.  Wentz ends up making more plays than Cousins, and the Eagles win a home game in their first step toward defending their title.

It may seem odd to pick the Saints on the road in the playoffs, especially outside in the cold, but that is exactly what I’m going to do.  The Saints are the best team in the NFL, where as the Packers are a decent team propped up by Aaron Rodgers.

The matchup favors New Orleans as they have the secondary to cover all of Rodgers weapons in the passing game.  On the flip side, Drew Brees, Michael Thomas, Alvin Kamara, and Mark Ingram should be able to muster up enough points to pull off the upset on the road.

The Eagles head out west to play the Rams.  If you’ll remember, the Rams lost to the Eagles at home last season in a game that got away from them after Wentz suffered his torn ACL.  In the rematch, the Rams will prevail.

With Ndamukong Suh and Aaron Donald up the middle, the Eagles won’t be able to find any running room.  Additionally, the Rams secondary has the talent to shut down the Eagles weapons in the passing game as well.  Wentz will be kept clean all day, but he will struggle to find open receivers.

The Rams should have enough up front to slow down the Eagles pass rush just enough for Goff to get the ball out of his hands.  The Rams receivers also run deeper than the Eagles corners, and that doesn’t account for Gurley coming out of the backfield.  Add in the home field advantage and the Rams are able to knock off the defending champions.  What a weekend for Los Angeles football.

Our third divisional match up of the postseason gives us a battle between the best two rosters in football.  The game will be in a dome, so in theory that helps the Saints in a road game.

As I have covered before, these two rosters are as evenly matched as it gets.  Quarterback, offensive line, stud receiver, two headed monster in the backfield, solid pass rush, talented secondary, good coaching.  There isn’t really anything to analyze about the matchup here.  Whoever wins this game is going to come down to some narrative like a lucky bounce, a big break, or someone else was just being better that day.  I happen to think the Saints are the better team, so I’m going with them.

One Sunday, two Los Angeles teams with a chance to go to the Super Bowl.  Spoiler: Neither team goes.

The Saints are the better team with the better quarterback, so that’s a good start.  In terms of the matchup both teams have nice offensive lines, running backs, receivers, and secondaries.  The Rams will bring a ton of interior pressure while the Saints have Cam Jordan and hopefully Marcus Davenport bringing heat off the edge.

The two teams match up with each other, so once again this is more narrative analysis.  This just feels like a spot where the Saints are going to go balls to the walls with this presumably being Brees’ last best chance at a Super Bowl.  The team is stacked, and Brees could continue to play at a high level, but at his age you never know when the drop off is going to happen.  Also, with the two year deal and trade for Bridgewater, who knows how much longer Brees is in New Orleans plans.

Super Bowl LIII – New Orleans Saints vs. New England Patriots

For the sake of argument if you call the offenses a wash then the Saints have a big defensive advantage.  Yet this should be a close matchup.

Gilmore should be able to match up well with Michael Thomas.  He won’t erase him, but he should limit Thomas to the point that he doesn’t alter the outcome of this game.  The trickle down affect here is that the receivers behind Thomas aren’t fear inducing.  Between all the different defensive backs the Patriots have to play with and Belichick conjuring up a game plan, Brees will be able to move the ball but shouldn’t be able to do so at all.

Again, with the additions of Danny Shelton and Adrian Clayborn, coupled with the return of Hightower, the Patriots should have one of the better run defenses in football.  The biggest issue here in this matchup is Kamara and Ingram as receivers while covered by linebackers.  For years the Patriots have struggled covering running backs coming out of the backfield, and it’s an issue they did nothing to address during the course of the offseason.

On the other side of the ball, the Saints pass rush is predicated largely on Cam Jordan.  Alex Okafor and Marcus Davenport could make this a great pass rushing team, but Okafor is returning from a torn achilles while Davenport was seen as a raw prospect in the draft.

If Brady has enough time (and he doesn’t need much) he can move the ball against any defense, regardless of how good the coverage is.  The Eagles have the best pass rush in the league, field a true #1 corner in Ronald Darby, and had the best slot corner in the game last year in Patrick Robinson (now with the Saints), and Brady still hung 505 yards and three touchdowns on Philadelphia in the Super Bowl.

Despite a clear defensive advantage for the Saints, the Patriots will still be able to score enough points.  They also have the better quarterback and the better coach, which is always a good start.  There’s also the 2014 Spurs factor here, as the Patriots came so close last year only to blow it, so the players will be locked in to get the job done this year.

Super Bowl LIII Champion: New England Patriots

AWARDS

MVP: Drew Brees, QB, Saints

Last year was perhaps Brees’ most efficient season.  He posted the lowest interception rate of his career (1.5%), his 8.1 yards per attempt lead the league, and he posted an ANY/A of 7.71.  So why do people think he was a disappointment in 2017?

Two reasons: volume and variance.  For the first time since 2009 Brees threw less than 600 pass attempts in a season.  Since then Brees has led the league in passing yards five times, and in only one of those instances (2011) did he have a higher yards/attempt than he did in 2017.  Similarly, his ANY/A was higher last year than all of the seasons in which he lead the league in passing yards, except for 2011.

He also posted a 4.3% touchdown rate, his first year under 5.0% since 2007, and well below his career mark of 5.3%.  If all we did was up Brees pass attempts last year to 600 and keep his yards per attempt the same, he would have finished with 4,852.  Brady led the league with 4,577.  If we make Brees touchdown rate his career average, 5.3%, on those 600 attempts he would have had 32 touchdowns.  Does 4,852 yards and 32 touchdowns sound a whole lot better to you than the 4,334 and 23 Brees posted last year?  Yea, probably.

I think New Orleans will get back to being a little more pass happy and therefore Brees will see his pass attempts go back over the 600 threshold.  If he keeps up the efficiency he had last year we’re looking at 4,800 yards 32 touchdowns and 9 interceptions for the quarterback on a team challenging for the best record in the league.

Also, this is a media award, and Drew Brees has never won a regular season MVP.  What a nice story this would be to give Brees an award he probably should have won somewhere along the lines when we don’t know if he will even put together an MVP caliber campaign again given his age.

Offensive Player of the Year: Antonio Brown, WR, Steelers

Between Bell’s current absence from the team facilities and the potential he gets hurt, the door is open for Brown to be the clear best skill position player on one of the most explosive offenses in the league.

Defensive Player of the Year: Joey Bosa, Edge, Chargers

The Chargers have a top five defense and Bosa will be in the running to lead the league in sacks.

Offensive Rookie of the Year: Saquon Barkley, RB, Giants

Come on.

Defensive Rookie of the Year: Derwin James, S, Chargers

James was a top five talent in the draft whose player comp was Kam Chancellor.  He inexplicably fell to the 17th pick and ended up with Gus Bradley as his defensive coordinator.  Normally this will go to a pass rusher since sacks are such shiny numbers, but with Marshon Lattimore winning the award last year I hope we are past box score awarding.

Comeback Player of the Year: Andrew Luck, QB, Colts

This is the easiest call in the world if Luck is just 75% of himself.

Breakout Player of the Year: Joe Mixon, RB, Bengals

On talent alone Mixon is a three down player similar to Le’Veon Bell.  The Bengals upgraded their offensive line and have John Ross and Tyler Eifert currently healthy to keep defenses honest.

Defensive Breakout Player of the Year: Trey Flowers, DE, Patriots

Trey Flowers had 25 quarterback knocks downs last year but only 6.5 sacks.  You get a sack on about 50% of your knock downs.  This year it all evens out.

Coach of the Year: Dan Quinn, Falcons

The Falcons are my projected 1 seed in the NFC and will therefore be in contention for the best record.  The media also refuses to give this award to Belichick on an annual basis despite it being justified to do so.

With the #1 pick in the 2019 NFL Draft.. the Buffalo Bills select Nick Bosa, DE, Ohio State

filed under: NFL

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