Welcome to the inaugural installment of a new series here at Frosted Takes, Too Calm Tuesday – Everybody Chill. The plan is for this space to become a weekly column, after overreaction Monday, to tell everyone to chill out. The same risk applies to a scorching hot take in this section as well, remaining so calm could lead us to be wrong because we aren’t quick enough to realize that a trend is just the new reality. No one bats 1,000, but we’re going to try while hopefully easing some nervous. Welcome to Too Calm Tuesday – Everyone Chill 9/18
The Patriots
Last we saw the Patriots prior to the 2018 season, their defense was playing at a high school level and embarrassingly found a way to lose a game in which Tom Brady threw for 505 yards and the offense never punted. Next time we saw them take the field in a game that actually mattered they looked pretty alright against the Houston Texans, and everyone wanted to say how the defense was much improved.
Whoever expressed that opinion wasn’t paying attention. Against the Texans, Deshaun Watson looked like a practice squad quarterback. Third downs weren’t converted because Watson couldn’t hit open receivers. Watson so badly missed an open receiver in the end zone in the third quarter I thought DeAndre Hopkins was going to ask for a trade while standing on the field out of frustration.
The Texans offensive line was also as abysmal as anticipated. The Patriots, who do not have a wonderful pass rush, got consistent pressure on Watson. What’s more, the Texans lost a starting offensive tackle to injury during the game. This essentially ended up being a great matchup for the Patriots defense to make them look better than they are.
That all came crashing down against the Jaguars. Blake Bortles looked like freakin’ Aaron Rodgers, running around and throwing the ball all over the yard. I don’t actually have the charting data in front of me, but my educated guess is Bortles’ completion percentage was 100% when he wasn’t throwing into Stephon Gilmore’s coverage.
The Patriots had absolutely no answers for a receiving crew casual fans have never heard of. It seemed to be the case that everyone Bortles targeted was open by at least five yards of separation on every, single, play.
Which, of course, has cued up what is now the annual first quarter of the season Patriots freakout. The defense was horrendous last year, and after the Chiefs rolled New England in Foxborough there were seven trillion think pieces on how the Patriots had no chance with their defense. In case you didn’t know, they were in the Super Bowl last year.
“Let’s face it, they’re good anymore!” exclaimed Trent Dilfer after the Chiefs obliterated the Patriots in week 4 of the 2014 season. New England won the Super Bowl in 2014.
After losing home playoff games to the Jets in 2010 and the Ravens in 2012, plus a second loss to the Giants in 2011, and being outmatched against Denver in 2013, the prevailing wisdom was “the Patriots haven’t won a Super Bowl in ten years, they just aren’t going to win again.” Yea, three Super Bowl appearances in the four seasons since with two victories.
How many times are we going to do this? This is like the LeBron James Cavs sleep walking their way from October to April every year, and every year we wonder if the Cavs can actually win the East with a defense that bad? YES! How many times do we have to watch as the Patriots get their shit together in real time during the first half of the season, only to go 7-1 or 8-0 in the second half of the season, have a bye week, win a home playoff game in the divisional round, and find themselves right back in the NFL’s Final Four on an annual basis for everyone to realize that LITERALLY NONE OF THIS MATTERS.
The Patriots defense is trash. By the time we get to the playoffs it will be a little less trash. By the time it’s Conference Championship Sunday, the most likely scenario is the Patriots are participants in the affair, quite possibly hosting a home game they will probably win, only to go to advance to the Super Bowl where Belichick and Brady are plenty capable of winning on any given Sunday.
Flash Gordon
Speaking of Belichick and his garbage defense that showed up against the Jaguars, I’m pretty confident ole Bill watched what transpired and thought to himself “the only chance we have is to be our 2007 selves all over again.”
Before the Josh Gordon trade the Patriots were essentially a Big-12 team and they just doubled down on that. Who needs a defense if you hang 50 a game on your opponent? That being said I remain cautiously optimistic this all works out to it’s fullest potential.
Wanna guess how many catches Josh Gordon has since the beginning of 2014? If you said 43, you nailed it. From 2014 through week 2 of 2018, Gordon has accumulated 43 receptions. What he did in 2013 was absolutely insane, and he did it with a trio of quarterbacks that can’t hold a candle to Brady, but that was five years ago. We haven’t seen Gordon at an All-Pro level in five years. What are the odds he’s just still that guy?
And what are the odds Gordon misses a team meeting at some point this year and Belichick just cuts him on the spot? At least decent, right? I hope for the sake of Josh Gordon he has straightened his life out, and he just landed in the perfect scenario. Don’t get in trouble, catch passes from Brady, possibly win a Super Bowl, then hit free agency. I hope he is in a good place personally and makes the most of this opportunity to really get his career back on track, but it isn’t a given at all that this is going to work out.
But GOOD LORD, the Patriots three wide set starting week five is going to be Gordon, Hogan, Edelman in the slot, and Gronk, with White/Michel/Burkhead out of the backfield. The Patriots entire strategy in 2007 was “we’re just going to have Brady stand in the shotgun the entire game, see if you can stop us.” It normally worked.
Muh-Homie
We have to talk about Patrick Mahomes III. In case you didn’t see the graphic, Mahomes is the first player to throw 10 TDs in the first two weeks of a season. In case you were wondering, that puts Mahomes on pace for 80 touchdown passes in 2018. All of this is exciting.
But let’s keep some perspective here. From a narrative analysis standpoint, he has started three games in his career. Taking the narrative and making it somewhat based in statistics, three games is a small sample size. Mahomes threw 6 TDs against the Steelers on 28 attempts. That is literally a video game box score line.
Mahomes is currently leading the NFL in TD rate, at 18.2%. Tom Brady’s career TD rate is 5.5%. Does anyone really believe Mahomes is more than 3 times better than Tom Brady? No, of course you don’t. What Mahomes has done so far is mind boggling and worth the attention he is receiving. But hold off on breaking out your anointing oil for a little while longer.
The Saints Are Fine, People
To be completely honest, I don’t listen to or watch any national podcasts or shows, so I don’t really come in contact with hot takes. I guess some pop up on my twitter feed but that’s more the people I follow making fun of Skip Bayless. My point is, I’m not quite sure if there are people freaking out about the Saints, but after losing at home to Tampa while allowing 48 points, and then escaping with a victory against the Browns, I feel like people are freaking out about the Saints.
They’re fine.
Through two weeks Drew Brees is in the top three for DYAR, DVOA, and QBR, while also placing 4th in ANY/A. Brees is the 3rd best quarterback in the NFL, and that alone gets the Saints somewhere.
As for everything else, while they haven’t been as dominant in certain areas as had been expected, they still haven’t shown a significant weakness. I know that is weird to hear when they allowed 48 points in the season opener, but New Orleans did the same thing last year. Sam Bradford looked like the GOAT in week 1 of 2017 while going against the New Orleans defense, and as the year went on the defense got better.
So what they got pushed to the brink by the Browns? Cleveland has a lot of talent, and Myles Garrett is an absolute monster. Michael Thomas is maybe a top three receiver in the NFL, Alvin Kamara remains an elite offensive weapon, and the offensive line is perfectly fine.
So you have questions about the defense? I get it, they gave up 48 points to (current MVP frontrunner) Ryan Fitzpatrick, and the defense sort of came out of nowhere last year so maybe it was a mirage. Would it ease your mind to know that Alex Okafor, Sheldon Rankins, and Demario Davis are all still grading just fine? In 2017 and 2016 Cam Jordan was an elite edge defender, and there is no reason to doubt he will be at a minimum very good this season.
The concern is the secondary, as no one is covering that well, but it’s only two weeks. There is too much talent in the secondary – and everywhere on this team for that matter – for this to not sort its self out. The Saints are a top five team and a Super Bowl contender, don’t worry about it.
The Questionable Big D
Am I talking about Dallas or am I talking about Dak? Honestly, it doesn’t matter because consensus on the Cowboys swings directly with consensus on Prescott. If we’re believers in Dak than there is no team in the NFL we would rather be (2016), and if we’re anti Dak then there is no hope (see 2017 & post week 1 2018).
So after Dallas beat the Giants in primetime where are we now? Seriously, I’m asking, I have no idea what people are saying after the Cowboys’ victory over the Giants.
Dak is now 20th in DYAR, 20th in DVOA, and 19th in QBR, but he is in the top ten of adjusted completion percentage according to ProFootballFocus. After a very poor week one Dak bounced back with an ok week two. The evidence is beginning to point toward Dak as a perfectly fine quarterback that ebbs and flows depending on the support around him.
The important takeaway here for Dallas fans is the defensive performance. I don’t like using points allowed that much but through two weeks the Cowboys have only surrendered 29 total points, the third best mark in the league. Their defense currently sits at 13th in defensive DVOA.
The biggest delight for Dallas must be Byron Jones (so far) successful transfer to corner from safety. It’s only been two weeks, but he is playing the position at one of the highest levels of anyone right now. If Jones is for real, and Demarcus Lawrence continues his high level of performance from 2017, there is no reason to think this defense isn’t legit.
Give Dak some time to develop better chemistry with this new cast of receivers, and Michael Gallup to develop as a professional player. The offensive line may get healthy as the season goes on. Dallas is fine. They will be around 9 wins come season’s end, fighting for a playoff berth.
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