The most significant game thus far is going to be when the Atlanta Falcons play on the road against the Pittsburgh Steelers on Sunday. It’s inherently weird to assign such a high degree of gravity to a week 5 game, but the loser of this contest is essentially going to be eliminated from playoff contention. That assertion also feels overdramatic for a week 5 game, but history will not be on the loser’s side. Let’s take a look at the most significant game thus far.
Entering the Year with High Hopes
Both Pittsburgh and Atlanta came into the season expecting to make the playoffs. Pittsburgh is an annual contender for their division title, while the Falcons have had their last two postseasons ended by the eventual Super Bowl champion. Specifically for Atlanta, the team, city, and fans were hoping to be the first team to play a Super Bowl in their home stadium.
The Steelers have made the playoffs each of the past four seasons, winning the division three times in that span. Since Roethlisberger was drafted in 2004, Pittsburgh has made the playoffs 10 out of the 14 years prior to 2018. This includes three Super Bowl trips and two victories.
This fan base has high expectations on a yearly basis. Other than the Patriots and whoever Peyton Manning was playing for, there hasn’t been a more consistent franchise in the NFL than the Steelers since Roethlisberger’s debut season. The fact the Steelers are, quite literally, tied in the standings with the Browns through four weeks must be absolutely torturing the Steeler faithful.
The Falcons haven’t risen to Pittsburgh’s level of continued excellence, but they have made the playoffs each of the past two seasons, with a combined regular season record of 21-11. That 21-11 mark is tied with Minnesota for the 4th best record from 2016-2017, behind only the Patriots (27-5), Steelers (24-8), and Cowboys (22-10). The expectation for 2018 in Atlanta was another legitimate shot at the Super Bowl. I was chief among those that agreed, as I considered them a top 5 team coming into the year.
So How Did We Get Here?
For the Falcons, losing opening night against the Eagles on the road is excusable. However, since then the wheels have fallen off. Two significant injuries struck the Falcons defense hard, right down the spine of the unit. Both Keanu Neal and Deion Jones have been placed on IR, and you can argue the two are Atlanta’s best individual defenders.
After falling to 1-2 after a home loss to the Saints (again, an excusable loss), I advocated caution before declaring the Falcons done for. Atlanta then blew a home fourth quarter lead against the (quite good) Cincinnati Bengals, due to an inability to come up with a winning defensive stop late in the game.
I can still sit here and argue that Atlanta is 0-3 in one possession games, and are getting at least somewhat unlucky. But at a certain point getting unlucky doesn’t matter, because you just don’t have enough time to dig yourself out of your hole.
As for the Steelers, I’ve also called for everyone to remain calm about their long term prospects. However, their efforts so far haven’t been inspiring. The Browns shocked the world in week one by playing Pittsburgh to a tie. In almost prescient fashion, the Steelers lost a Big-12 style home game 43-37 against the Chiefs, one week before the Falcons lost a Big-12 style home game 43-37 against the Saints. Pittsburgh picked up their first win in Tampa Bay before dropping a home game to the Ravens.
Each team dropping a home shootout is really representative of the state of each team. The Falcons and Steelers are very similar in many ways. Matt Ryan and Ben Roethlisberger are two of the better quarterbacks in the league. Antonio Brown and Julio Jones are the two best receivers in the league, in some order. JuJu Smith-Schuster was the rookie wide receiver sensation of 2017. Calvin Ridley looks to be the rookie wide receiver sensation of 2017. Each team has a top ten offensive line. Neither team has a fear inducing tight end.
And each team has a poor defense. The Falcons defense is 30th in DVOA, 22nd in grading, and 29th in scoring. The Steelers defense is 19th in DVOA, 20th in scoring, and 25th in scoring. You may see these numbers and be more inclined to call the Steelers defense below average as opposed to outright bad, but they allowed 21 points to the Tyrod Taylor Browns, and 26 points to Joe Flacco. The DVOA and grading ranks are probably inflated due to the small sample size. There is a reason the over/under for this game is and absurd 56.5 right now.
What Really is at Stake?
As I alluded to earlier, whoever loses this game is most likely eliminated from the playoffs. Since the merger (1970), and excluding the strike shortened seasons of 1982 and 1987, out of 212 teams that have started 1-4 (so applicable if the Falcons lose), only 13 times has a team gone on to make the playoffs, which is 6.1%.
The Steelers situation is a little more complicated due to the tie. Since the merger and excluding the two strike shortened seasons, there have been only 10 teams that have started 1-3-1 (applicable if the Steelers lose). Only one of those teams ended up making the playoffs, so 10%. If we pretend that after a hypothetical win on Sunday that the Steelers would be 2-3, they would join 344 previous teams since the merger to start 2-3, 63 of which went on to make the playoffs (18.3%).
Clearly the Steelers cannot be 2-3 after Sunday, but the point is if we just change the Browns tie to a win, and then Atlanta hypothetically dropped Pittsburgh to 2-3, their odds would still be low to make the playoffs based on history.
These are two teams that were viewed as true contenders to represent their conference in Super Bowl LIII, which means in the pre-season we looked at this week 5 matchup and saw a potential Super Bowl preview. Now each team is fighting for their playoff survival after 25% of the season has been played.
To make matters worse both for these teams, each is locked in one of the more difficult divisions in football. It’s entirely possible the NFC South and the AFC North are the two best divisions in the league. The Saints are a Super Bowl contender, the second best team in the NFC, and have already won in Atlanta. The Panthers are a perennial playoff contender. The Bucs are 2-2 and are transitioning to Jameis Winston after the bye.
The Ravens already won in Pittsburgh, are 2nd in point differential, and and 5th in DVOA. The Bengals are 9th in point differential, 7th in DVOA, and are constructed well to continue to stay in the playoff chase throughout the rest of the season.
The result is whoever loses on Sunday will have to rip off a rather miraculous run over the final 11 games in order to get into the post season. That is quite the predicament for a team entering the season with rightful ambitions of hoisting the Lombardy Trophy in early February.
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