Let’s Circle Back to Jared Goff for MVP

Let’s circle back to Jared Goff for MVP.  Last year, around the midway point of the 2017 season, yours truly wrote an article outlining Goff’s argument for MVP at the time.  During the second half of the season it was Goff’s teammate, Todd Gurley, that dominated the league and ended up finishing second in the MVP race.  As it turns out the article was a bit premature (although not really because the angle of the article is what Goff had done to that point in time).  But seeing as how 2017 was Goff’s functional rookie season, it wasn’t overly realistic he would end up winning the award.  Now through the first four games of 2018 Goff is again lighting up opposing defenses, so let’s circle back to Jared Goff for MVP.

Absolute, Utter, Sheer Dominance

What Goff has done through the first four weeks is incredible.  Here is where he ranks in the more traditional passing numbers to this point:

But it’s really the advanced stats where Goff shows such a high level of performance right now.  Behold:

I mean, this guy is just in some kind of zone right now:

What a gorgeous throw from Jared Goff here pic.twitter.com/CeVZOi5601

— Jackson Frank (@jackfrank_jjf) September 28, 2018

That is on the move, 35 yards downfield, over two defenders, and Goff couldn’t have possibly walked the ball over and handed it to Kupp better than that pass.  Speaking of not being able to walk to ball over and hand it to the receiver any better..

Jared Goff is having an insane half. Another perfect throw on this TD: pic.twitter.com/qZDZBEgqNs

— Jackson Frank (@jackfrank_jjf) September 28, 2018

These aren’t just dimes, these are D-I-M-E-S.

Goff’s areas for improvement were in the department of making special throws.  I’d say the above were special throws.  Within that area for improvement weas that he doesn’t have the mobility to make plays on the run and off schedule.  Well, above we saw him do just that while finding Kupp for a touchdown.  It was the second week in a row such an event occurred, as here is the first instance from week 3:

What more are you asking for, from Goff, really?  He never drops his eyes despite the pressure, he maneuvers the pocket, and then throws an absolute pin point dime while off platform.

Here are all five of Goff’s touchdowns against the Vikings:

Notice the ball location for every throw: directly in the receivers hands.  The receiver didn’t have to move, stretch, jump, or slow down.  There is also always a defender within bat-down distance, with the exception of the long touchdown to Kupp.  On the touchdowns to Gurley and Cooks, he manipulates the safety away from where he wants to go before the throw.

As a result, it won’t come as a shock to you that Goff is leading the league in adjusted completion percentage at a mark of 84%.  84%!  He is also 5th in the NFL in adjusted completion percentage on deep passes (20 or more yards downfield), and 3rd in that category among quarterbacks with at least 90 deep passing drop backs.  Oh, he is also tied for second with 5 touchdowns on deep passes.

As we talked about yesterday in our weekly installment of Too Calm Tuesday, the best predictive measure we have of future quarterback performance is how well you play when given a clean pocket.  Among all quarterbacks with at least five clean pocket drop backs, Goff ranks second (behind Mahomes) in passer rating.  His passer rating from a clean pocket thus far is 134.1.  Among those with at least 21 attempts from a clean pocket, Goff ranks 5th in adjusted completion percentage.  He trails only Mahomes in touchdowns.

Football Outsiders does a series every year on play-action passing.  They have done a lot of studies regarding play-action passing, largely in part because play-action passes are just more efficient.  So it stands to reason if your quarterback is performing well on play-action passes then that’s really good.  Well, Goff ranks 4th in the NFL in passer rating on play-action passes among quarterbacks with at least 20 attempts.  He is first in yards on play-action passing, having totaled 707 yards through the first four weeks.  In second place is Andy Dalton, with 477 yards.  That 230 yard difference is the essentially the difference between Dalton and Russell Wilson (242 yards), and Wilson ranks 15th.

As for the Rams, Los Angeles ranks 1st in DVOA, 1st in Total Dave, 1st in Offensive DVOA, 1st in point differential, and 3rd in FiveThiryEight’s ELO rating.  They’re 4-0 and have consistently brought it, as they rank 7th in weekly DVOA variance.  Add it up, and Goff is your MVP through the first quarter of the season.

While We Are Here

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Jared Goff is currently the number one QB in the NFL through week 4.

A post shared by Pro Football Focus (@profootballfocus) on Oct 3, 2018 at 1:58pm PDT

I want to take a look at Goff vs Wentz from two angles.  First, how Goff compares this year to how Wentz was faring last year before his injury.  The conventional wisdom seems to be had Wentz played all 16 games he would have won the MVP over Brady.  Second, who is better at this point, which has it’s challenges since Goff’s 2016 season should just be deleted from the record books and Wentz is currently rusty after his ACL injury.

Regarding 2017 Wentz vs 2018 Goff, clearly it is skewed.  We are talking about a 12.5 game/440 pass attempt sample against a 4 game/134 pass attempt sample.  Trust me, I get it.  But the whole point is that so far Goff is the league’s MVP, so does his performance trail, match, or exceed 2017 Wentz.

Ok then, Goff outpaces Wentz in every category (except for attempts per game – whatever).  How about some advanced stats?

Once again, we have a winner.  But what about over the course of their respective careers thus far?  This debate was pronounced dead entering 2018.  Mike Sando’s annual QB tiers article showed us what league insiders thought of the two quarterbacks.  Wentz ranked as the 9th best quarterback in the league, viewed as a clear tier 2 guy, destined to enter tier 1.

“‘I think he is a 2 that will be a 1, and then once he is a 1, it looks like he has a lot of the traits like Brady,’ a Super Bowl-winning coordinator said. ‘You’d just like to see him do it more.’

A personnel director was one of 12 voters to place Wentz in the top tier already.

‘Obviously, he had the knee, but if healthy and all that stuff, he’s a 1,’ this director said. ‘He has a little backyard in him, but he is a very poised passer, a really gifted runner and he has the arm to make all the throws. He is confident, doesn’t get rattled, does all the things that you want, and his team — the players — they gravitate to him.'”

As for Goff?  He ranked 19th in the league and was basically a guy that managed to just not fuck everything up.

“‘A starting quarterback should be able to take advantage and not hinder the offense when everything is great — the playcaller, the running back, all that,” a voter said. ‘Give Goff credit for that. There are moments when the QB has to convert — it’s on him. Atlanta put Goff in those situations during the playoff game, and he could not convert. Now, this offseason, you can bet teams have been breaking down how to slow that offense.'”

So much for all that offseason break down stuff being effective whatsoever.

Alright, so, how do these two compare thus far?

I’ve been on one side since the 2015 college season (not hard to tell which side).  It would be fair to call me blinded by bias, I suppose, but I’m not even going to chime in here what a written interpretation of the numbers above.  You know what I think, so I’ll let you draw your own conclusions.

(Yes, none of this depicts Wentz’s superior scrambling/rushing ability, which obviously matters and has value)