We’ve seen this movie before: Disgruntled star in a small market doesn’t appear to care much at all about a potential $220 million contract, announces he wants to be traded to the Lakers and, regardless of where he does get traded, he will simply opt out of his contract the following summer and sign in Los Angeles as a free agent.
The Celtics were reluctant pull the trigger or offer too much, in part due to the flight risk the star player posed. The Lakers didn’t want to gut their roster to trade for a guy they could simply sign in free agency the next summer and become the Knicks from earlier this decade. Other teams had interest but were hesitant to make substantial offers while the Lakers and their oodles of future cap space loomed as a boogieman, and any trade for this star a functioning one year rental.
Well, Sam Presti said fuck all of that and traded for Paul George anyway. In the process he shipped out a young two guard making over $20 million a year, and another young guy, in an attempt to get George into the Thunder organization and spend the next year selling the Thunder brand so George stayed for the long-term. The plan, as we now know, worked.
After Durant left, the Thunder were in a terrible position from a team building perspective. Russell Westbrook, Steven Adams, and Andre Roberson were due big raises, and soon. Enes Kanter had $53.6 million left on his contract. The team was locked into Alex Abrines and Kyle Singler for multiple years, neither albatross contracts, but limiting flexibility none the less.
The team hadn’t made a single draft pick a few weeks before Durant decided to head to the bay, and the Thunder still owed a future first round pick due to the Enes Kanter trade. The ability to, and hope of, adding another star during Russell Westbrook’s prime seemed bleek at best.
There were never any rumors the Thunder were in on the Paul George sweepstakes. It just happened out of nowhere. The sports world was shocked. No one saw this coming, and everyone thought OKC had accomplished a heist. Rolling the dice on convincing George to stay with the team, with a point guard who is a top ten player in the prime of his career, was the best chance for the Thunder to add another star to their team. OKC is a small market that doesn’t attract free agents. It was the only path to getting better.
The Trail Blazers are capped out. They have luxury tax concerns and an unwillingness to pay the tax. Their draft picks moving forward figure to be too far down the board to add a real difference maker, unless they just get lucky. They’re a small market, not a free agent destination. They have an in-his-prime, First Team All-NBA point guard. There is no real pathway to getting better. Sound familiar?
If Portland wants to maximize Lillard’s prime and get to the highest levels of contention in the league, then they should try the Presti model and gamble on a Kawhi trade. When healthy (and we don’t really know on that front right now), Kawhi, by my estimation, is the 4th best player in the league. There is Portland’s path to getting better. Giving away what it takes to land him will hurt, and if he leaves you’ve set yourself back. The alternative is roll out the status quo for the next however many years, continually fluctuating between the three and eight seed, while never being a serious contender.
Can Portland build an attractive enough trade package? Well, according to reporting, the Lakers have deemed Kyle Kuzma “off limits” in a Kawhi trade, the 76ers refuse to include Fultz, Simmons, or Embiid, and it appears the Celtics are unwilling to part with Jaylen Brown (rightfully so). Also, according to reporting, the Spurs are asking for the kitchen sink in Kawhi talks. They want an established veteran, young players, draft picks, and cap relief. Of course, they will never get all of that, but what can the Blazers offer?
This is where it will hurt, but the package would be built around C.J. McCollum. If Kawhi leaves after a year, you lost your second best player for nothing, and probably pissed off Damian Lillard. Sometimes you gotta risk it to get the biscuit.
Portland will not like taking on salary, but considering McCollum makes nearly $6 million more than Kawhi, there is some room for the Spurs to get off money. The best contract for the Spurs to get out from under is the Patty Mills contract. Considering how much the Spurs value culture and player familiarity, I’m not sure San Antonio even wants to move Mills, but Mills is due another $39 million over the next three years.
If San Antonio can clear Mills’ contract, the Spurs could be major players in the 2019 free agent market. Pau Gasol has only $6.7 million of his $16 million salary for 2019-2020 guaranteed, so the Spurs could waive and stretch the $6.7 million. That, coupled with trading Mills and renouncing all their cap holds, can get San Antonio to around $41 million in salary cap space. The three main draws of a free agent pitch would be Pop, Aldridge, and McCollum. Not bad. Remember, Kyrie Irving’s preferred destination when he requested a trade was San Antonio.
Taking on Mills still isn’t enough, so Portland would still have to add to McCollum to get the deal done. Zach Collins, the former 10th overall pick, could be placed into the deal, along with 2018 first rounder Anfernee Simons. The Spurs get a former lottery pick and a raw youngster with significant upside.
Portland would probably also have to add a pick, but let’s just call it a single pick. It can be the 2019 pick, since a team of Kawhi and Dame is going to make the playoffs so the Blazer won’t be desperate to hold onto it. I imagine it would be lottery protected in case Kawhi never actually plays this season and this trade is a total disaster (I also imagine Portland would get a medical report before committing to this trade).
So the Spurs get an established veteran who is a proven scorer, cap relief, a former lottery pick, a shoot for the moon back end of the first round draft pick, and another first rounder. Considering Los Angeles, Boston, and Philadelphia are driving hard bargains right now, San Antonio might like that offer.
As for the Blazers convincing Kawhi to stay, they would have a year to sell him on the potential of him and Lillard, plus the culture of the organization. That’s all well and good. But there is a really interesting potential subplot here since Kawhi would be in the city of Portland.
When the clock struck midnight and the calendar turned to July 1st, we didn’t just begin the latest free agency period, we also began an open negotiation period between Kawhi’s representation and all shoe company suitors. Kawhi’s contract with Nike expires in October, and the two sides are at odds regarding an extension. Kawhi is seeking top of the line endorsement money (perhaps $20 million a year?), while Nike was thinking $20 million total over four years.
Kawhi’s camp is now free to negotiate shoe deals with other companies, though in the shoe game Kawhi is a restricted free agent, so Nike can match any offer sheet. But Adidas, headquartered in Portland, has been aggressive in their efforts to cut into Nike’s basketball sneaker market share, and Damian Lillard is an Adidas athlete.
Could Adidas lavish, praise, and pay Kawhi so much that it makes him feel right at home in Portland? Could being Lillard’s teammate on the court and in the marketing arena build a bond between the two similar to Westbrook and George? Could Adidas hold the keys to altering the entire NBA landscape? Is conspiring with a sports apparel titan considered tampering? These are the questions I want answered. Roll the dice Portland.
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