Should Jaylen Brown Be Untouchable?

I had already planned on looking into whether or not Danny Ainge should make it clear that Jaylen Brown is unavailable for trade.  Then the Kawhi news broke, then we were reminded that Boston had inquired about Kawhi at the trade deadline in February, and that no one has a prayer of beating the assets Ainge has to offer in any potential deal.

As Woj mentions in the video, the Celtics have young, cheap players (specifically Brown) and an asinine amount of draft capital to send to San Antonio for Leonard.  What I’m trying to do here isn’t specific to a Kawhi Leonard trade, as Boston has been linked to having interest in trading for a number of NBA superstars for some time now.

What I want to examine is if Jaylen Brown should be a non-starter in trade talks, the same as his teammate Jayson Tatum seems to be a non-starter based on Woj’s phrasing.

I want to make something very clear before proceeding: the odds Brown, or Tatum, ever have a single season as good as peak Kawhi, peak Davis, or, I don’t know, peak Lillard even, are low.  Those are First Team caliber guys.  The odds are just against either of them, or anyone really, blossoming into essentially a top five player in the NBA.  It could happen, but it is unlikely, so when you have a chance to get Kawhi or Anthony Davis you just do it.  I’m just saying if you consider age and the economics of it, it might be wise to hold onto Brown.


Back in November, Mike Schmitz and Kevin Pelton looked at if Jaylen Brown could become an All-Star due to his hot start filling in for Gordon Hayward.  Two major factors the duo highlighted for Brown’s All-Star potential were his defense and his improved shooting.  Since the article was published in late November, the authors only had about six weeks of data to use to compile their arguments.  While admittedly still a small sample size in the grand scheme of things, we now have the benefit of two seasons of Jaylen Brown.

Let’s start with his defense.  Before actually diving into it, I want to hammer home the physical build of Brown.  Not to get all combine-y and suggest length and size just automatically transfer to being an awesome defender, but Brown has proven to be a quality defender and is built like one.

When I see Jaylen Brown on my television screen the first thing that jumps out at me is the fact the dude can probably scratch his kneecaps without bending over.  Brown is 6’5.25″ without shoes and has a 6’11.75″ wingspan.  That is a plus 6.5″ wingspan, which is fantastic.  Brown is also 223lbs and his body fat measurement at the combine as 5.05%.  Brown is 223lbs of pure muscle, essentially, with practically a 7′ wingspan, so he is the exact profile of strength and length that you want in a versatile wing defender in a modern switch heavy scheme.

The advanced metrics for measuring Brown’s impact defensive impact are rather positive.  He ranked 8th in Defensive RPM this past season among shooting guards.  His Defensive Win Shares was 3.2, which ranked 31st in the entire NBA (though tied with 32nd and 33rd).  Brown was one of only five players in the top 33 that are 21 years old or younger. (The other four are Ben Simmons, Jayson Tatum, Donovan Mitchell, and Dejounte Murray).

Furthermore, Brown’s Defensive Box Plus Minus was 0.4, which still ranked in the top 75 this past season.  He was 21st among players 21 years old or younger that played at least 500 minutes this season in DBPM.  These numbers aren’t as rosy as the ones in the above paragraph, but they still paint a picture of Brown being a defensive contributor at worst.

These, however, are my favorite Brown defensive stats that I found during my research:  Out of all guards that played at least 41 games this season and defended at least three field goal attempts per game, Jaylen Brown ranked 3rd in defended field goal percentage.  Even better, among all forwards that played at least 41 games and defended at least three field goal attempts per game, Jaylen Brown ranked 2nd in defensive field goal percentage behind only DPOY finalist Anthony Davis.

For what it’s worth – which is essentially nothing – the Celtic’s defensive rating this year was better with, and dropped off more and to a worse rating without, Jaylen Brown in comparison to Al Horford.

At the time that ESPN article was written, Brown was shooting 41.1% from three and the authors pondered if such a high mark was sustainable.  Well, he finished the season at 39.5% from three on 4.4 three point attempts per game, a pretty solid volume (more than 2.5x as many as his rookie year).  More encouraging is that for his career Brown is a 42.9% three point shooter from the corner.

The reason for his improved shooting is a better shooting motion.  I, myself, am still suspect of whether or not his high percentage three point shooting can continue on account of his 65.8% career free throw percentage.  This is right on line with his free throw percentage at Cal, 65.4%.

The signs are still encouraging though.  Brown has shot 50.7% on two point attempts in both of his professional seasons, despite nearly doubling the per game volume in his sophomore season.  Thanks to his improved three point shooting, he increased his eFG% from 50.8% in his rookie season to 54.0% in year two.  He went from 53.9% true shooting his first season to 56.2% this past year.


Who is better, Jaylen Brown or Jayson Tatum?

During the season I texted two of my friends asking “who would you rather have, Brown or Tatum?”  Both answered Tatum.  They’re not wrong.  They both then posed the same question to me, and of course I punted giving a real answer.  “I dunno, I guess Tatum but I’m not convinced it’s not Brown.”

I still don’t know the answer to the question.  Tatum’s biggest strength is his shot creation and shot making abilities, which are obvious if you watch a Celtics game.  That single skill is the single most valuable skill in the NBA.  It’s what gets you drafted with the first pick.  It’s what every team looks to build their roster around.

Tatum is 16 months younger than Brown, which is a little bit significant but to me it isn’t a huge deal.  However, in terms of the value of the assets that Danny Ainge holds, I will cede that the extra year of cost control remaining on Tatum’s rookie deal is pretty nice.  With that established, let’s look at Tatum and Brown.

I want to begin with something you probably would not have guessed.  Look, I understand that what I am about to tell you is based on tiny, tiny sample sizes, so take it with a grain of salt.  But here is an interesting data point from last season: Jaylen Brown was significantly better in isolation than Jayson Tatum.

On very few possessions for each, Brown outpaced Tatum in points per possession, FG%, eFG%, free throw frequency, turnover frequency, shooting foul frequency, scoring frequency, and points per possession percentile, in isolation.

When I watch Brown, the biggest area that stands out for me where he should concentrate improvement efforts (besides becoming a better free throw shooter) is as a pick and roll ball handler.  This is one area where Tatum was significantly better than Brown this past season.

The two were similar on drives this year, with Tatum holding a slight advantage due to drawing more fouls.  This makes sense considering their individual performances at the rim.  On shots within three feet of the basket, Jaylen brown shot 62.2% on those shots, and such shots accounted for 35.6% of Browns field goal attempts.  For Tatum, 32% of his field goal attempts came within three feet of the basket, and he shot 62.9% on such shots.

Here is an easier look at how the two compared on drives this season:

Driving Jaylen Brown Jayson Tatum
Drives Per Game 4.8 5.7
Points Per Game 2.8 3.6
FGA Per Game 2.2 2.9
FG% 47.7 44.9
FTA Per Game 1 1.1
Points % 59.2 63.9
Pass % 25.5 25.3
Assist % 6.2 3.7

I know all of these are small sample sizes.  This is the case when looking into data for first and second year players.  But here is how each performed on pull up shots this season:

Pull Ups Jaylen Brown Jayson Tatum
FGA Per Game 1.6 3.5
Points Per Game 1.3 3
FG% 35.8 39.3
3PA Per Game 0.4 0.8
3P% 35.7 31
eFG% 40.6 42.6

In the ultimate examination of small sample sizes, here is how Brown and Tatum compare on post ups, not exactly a shot I’m advocating for more of these shots, but nonetheless:

Post Ups Jaylen Brown Jayson Tatum
Post Ups Per Game 1.2 0.9
FGA Per Game 0.6 0.4
FG% 47.5 38.2
Points Per Game 0.7 0.5
Points % 57.3 51.5
Pass % 25.6 20.6
Assist % 11 11.8

Tatum posted superior numbers in most categories, but all of the categories are relatively close regardless of the winner.  We do have to remind ourselves though that Tatum is 16 months younger than Brown however, so he is posting more efficient numbers, although perhaps only slightly, at a younger age.

Here are some more similarities between the two:

2017-18 Stat Jaylen Brown Jayson Tatum
FG% 46.5 47.5
3P% 39.5 43.3
eFG% 54.0% 53.8%
Points 14.5 13.9
Free Throw Attempts 3.3 3.2
Rebounds 4.9 5.0
Assists 1.6 1.6
Steals 1.0 1.0
Blocks 0.4 0.7
PER 13.6 15.3
Rebound % 8.8 9.0
Assist % 8.5 8.3
Steal % 1.6 1.7
Usage 21.4 19.5
Defensive Win Shares 3.2 4.0

When I set out to do this, I wasn’t expecting to find that Tatum’s Defensive Win Shares, as well as his DRPM, would outpace Brown.  I’m not saying this proves Tatum is a better defender, especially considering how poorly opponents shot while in Brown’s defense (although that stat itself can be flukey).  I would still call Brown the better defender, but I was expecting this category to go to Brown hands down, and that clearly is not the case.

This is admittedly a tiny sample, but here are some comparisons of how Brown and Tatum performed this past playoffs:

2018 Playoffs Jaylen Brown Jayson Tatum
FG% 46.6 47.1
3P% 39.3 32.4
2P% 51.9 52.6
eFG% 45.9 51.5
TS% 56.3 57.8
Points 18.0 18.5
Rebounds 4.8 4.4
Steals 0.8 1.2
Blocks 0.6 0.5
PER 16.0 16.2
Rebound % 8. 7.0
Assist % 8.3 13.3
Steal % 1.2 1.7
Block % 1.5 1.3
Turnover % 7.4 11.9
Usage 24.6 23.3
Offensive Win Shares 0.6 0.8
Defensive Win Shares 0.7 0.8
Win Shares 1.3 1.6
Win Shares/48 .105 .116
VORP 0.4 0.6

Pretty comparable production.  What I find encouraging about Brown’s performance, since we should remain slightly skeptical of the sustainability of his three point shooting, is that he upped his three point field goal attempts to 6.2 in the playoffs (nearly a 1.5x increase from the regular season) and maintained his 39% shooting mark.

After doing the digging I think I do have to admit that Tatum is better, but I think it is by a hair.  I do suppose I would rather have Tatum as an asset, but that is more a product of him being younger and having three remaining years of a rookie scale salary.  I will concede, however, that Tatum has a higher ceiling.  I’m just not as confident in Tatum reaching his higher range of outcomes than Brown.


Is Jaylen Brown the Second Coming of Someone We Know Well?

My theory, that I explained to my friends, was that the highest outcome for Tatum, out of the range of outcomes for his career, is better than Brown’s.  Put simpler, Tatum’s ceiling is higher.  I am just unsure of how confident I am that he is going to reach that ceiling.

That’s not to say I don’t have faith in Tatum to become a really good player, I’m just less confident in Tatum reaching his peak potential than I am in what I believe Jaylen Brown will become.  Brown’s ceiling may be lower than Tatum’s, but I am rather confident he is going to turn into what I envision him becoming.

When I watch Brown play, the way he moves and his style of play explicitly reminds me of someone: Jimmy Butler.

Butler is a little taller, and a little heavier, but they look chiseled from stone, and move in similar fashions.  I mean, they even both rock a hightop for christ sakes.  Neither is too shifty or quick, but they are thick, powerful athletes that are explosive in straight lines.  They are both switch everything plus defenders that can hit threes, and as Butler progressed in his career he developed a shot creation skillset.

Since Jimmy Butler entered the league at an older age than Jaylen Brown is now, I decided to compare Brown and Butler’s second seasons.  They are strikingly similar.

Here are some of the highlights:

Stat 2nd Year Jaylen Brown Jimmy Butler
FG% 46.5 46.7
3P% 39.5 38.1
Free Throw Attempts 3.3 2.8
Assists 1.6 1.6
Steals 1.0 1.0
Blocks 0.4 0.4
PER 13.6 15.2
TS% 56.2 57.4
Rebound % 8.8 8.8
Assist % 8.5 8.6
Steal % 1.6 2.0
Block % 1.0 1.1
Defensive Win Shares 3.2 2.6

If we look at some shooting data we can find more similarities.  Each player posted a similar amount of shots at the rim in each of their first two seasons, only in reverse order.  Jimmy Butler took 35.4% of his field goals within three feet of the basket his rookie season, and then increased that to 39.1% his second year.  In contrast, Jaylen Brown took 40.4% of his shots his rookie season within three feet of the basket, before declining that percentage to 35.6% his second year.

Brown seems more adept at converting those shots so close to the basket, however.  While Jimmy Butler shot only 50% at the rim his rookie season, Brown posted a mark of 61.4%.  Butler greatly improved in year two, shooting 68% at the rim, while Brown slightly increased with a 62.2% shooting mark.

You would like to have seen a larger increase from Brown, but those shooting percentages are fairly inline with what Butler has posted in his subsequent seasons.  From his third year onward, Butler has posted shooting percentages at the rim of 59.6%, 62.4%, 67.3%, 61.2%, and 66.2%.  He never again posted a mark as good as his second season, although he came close to it twice.

From his third season onward, Butler has shot 63.42% at the rim, pretty close to Brown’s present career mark of 61.9%.  Volume is also something to consider within each player’s first two years, as Brown exceedingly outpaces Butler in shot attempts at the rim by the count of 457 to 227.

I’ve eluded to Brown needing to grow as a shot creator and maker, but is it possible he was already more advanced in this area than Butler was in Butler’s second year?

In each of Brown and Butler’s first two seasons more than 95% of their three point field goals were assisted, so we can mark this one down in the “these guys are really similar” category.  However, two point field goals show something else.  In Butler’s first season he attempted 68 two point field goals, shot 44.1% on those attempts, and was assisted on 63.3% of his two point makes.  In Butler’s second season, he increased his two point field goal attempts to 407, increased his two point FG% to 48.9%, but the percentage of his two point makes that were assisted held steady at 63.8%.

Let’s compare this to Jaylen Brown.  In Brown’s rookie season, he took 288 two point attempts, shot 50.7% on those shots, and was assisted on 62.3% of his makes.  He shot a higher percentage on a higher volume than Butler, but was assisted at a similar rate.

Brown’s second year, however, is where we can see signs for optimism.  Brown attempted 497 two point shots in year two and held his efficiency steady, making 50.7% on his two point field goals, the exact same percentage from his rookie year.  However, the percentage of his assisted two point field goals dropped from 62.3% to 53.6% his second year.

Tracking data available on NBA.com doesn’t go back far enough for me to look at Butler’s second season.  However, we can compared Butler’s third season to some of the play-types we previously researched for Brown.  Remember, this is Butler’s third season vs. Brown’s second season, so Brown is three years younger in the comparison.

Here is the comparison on drives:

Drives Jaylen Brown Jimmy Butler
Drives Per Game 4.8 4.1
Points Per Game 2.8 1.6
FGA Per Game 2.2 1
FG% 47.7 33.8
FTA Per Game 1 1.2
Points % 59.2 40.3
Pass % 25.5 37
Assist % 6.2 12.5

Here is pull up shooting:

Pull Ups Jaylen Brown Jimmy Butler
FGA Per Game 1.6 2.4
Points Per Game 1.3 1.5
FG% 35.8 30.4
3PA 0.4 0.4
3P% 35.7 28.1
eFG% 40.6 39.6

And finally post ups:

Post Ups Jaylen Brown Jimmy Butler
Post Ups Per Game 1.2 1.8
FGA Per Game 0.6 0.6
FG% 47.5 41.5
Points Per Game 0.7 0.8
Points % 57.3 45.9
Pass % 25.6 41
Assist % 11 15.3

Theses are small sample sizes, but the evidence is there to suggest that Brown is already more advanced than Butler at creating and making his own shot than Butler was in his second or third year.  Brown is already less dependent on being assisted while shooting a better percentage on two point shots.  He has also shown to be more efficient on drives, pull ups, and post ups than Butler, all while being three years younger during the time of comparison.


So What is Brown’s Value? Should He Be Untouchable?

The main two points I’ve tried to hammer home here are that Tatum and Brown are a lot closer than people realize, and Brown is almost scarily similar to Jimmy Butler.  Would you trade a 21 year old Jimmy Butler with two years remaining on a rookie scale deal?

Jayson Tatum is pretty much viewed as someone Ainge should make untouchable because it is only a matter of time before he takes over the league.  Tatum is good and will probably be a very good NBA player, but if you can get Anthony Davis or pre-injury Kawhi Leonard (and let’s be real, we don’t know if we’re ever going to see that guy again), you just do it because those are elite players.

But the difference between Tatum and Brown appears to be minimal, so the Celtics shouldn’t really be more willing to relinquish Brown.  I’m quite confident that Brown is going to turn into something at least close to Jimmy Butler, if not essentially the same guy.  I wouldn’t want to give that up.  And we still haven’t even looked at the economics of the situation.

If the Celtics trade for Kawhi, using Jaylen Brown in the deal, let’s fast forward and assume that both Kyrie and Kawhi decline their player options next summer and then sign max extensions with Boston.  Let’s also assume Al Horford opts into his $30.1 million player option in 2019.

In the summer of 2019, Boston can offer Kyrie Irving a max deal projected to be a five year contract worth $188 million, with a starting salary of about $32.4 million for the following season.  Kawhi Leonard would also sign an identical contract.  You’re looking at an active roster payroll of around $142.04 million for Boston starting in the summer of 2019, with the cap projected to be $108 million and the luxury tax threshold at $131 million.

Oh, let me clarify, that’s for only 9 players.  Boston would have to fill out the rest of the roster around everyone, and probably renounce the rights to both Marcus Morris and Terry Rozier, after presumably letting Marcus Smart walk in the summer of 2018.

That $142.04 million figure would have been the highest payroll from the 2017-2018 season, and it’s only for nine guys.

By the time the Celtics get to having to extend Tatum, the team has two high draft picks staring them in the face.  The Celtics are getting the Kings’ first round pick in 2019 if it doesn’t end up as the #1 pick.  I don’t know what the #2 draft slot salary will be in 2019, but whoever goes #2 in 2018 will get a starting salary of $7.38 million.

The Celtics also have another juicy lottery pick coming their way from Memphis.  The pick is top 8 protected in 2019, top 6 protected in 2020, and unprotected in 2021.  It is not out of the question Boston ends up with another top 3 pick in 2021 thanks to Memphis.

Of course, all of this is a good problem.  Boston has an embarrassment of riches in terms of assets.  They can’t horde them all so it is a good idea to consolidate.  But moving a cheap piece like Brown for someone like Kawhi would have to Celtics looking at an astronomical tax bill.  Hey, it might be the only way anyone can compete with the Warriors for the next two or three years.

You may look at a perspective closing five of Kyrie, Hayward, Tatum, Kawhi, Horford and think to yourself, “now there is a team that can compete with Golden State,” and you would have a point.  You’d have a point with a decently large contingency however, and that’s both Kyrie and Kawhi being healthy.

Irving is coming off knee surgery and has not exactly been the picture of health in his career, while Kawhi’s soft tissue issue is neck and neck with Fultz’s shoulder problem for most bizarre injury in NBA history.

 

I’m going to undermine my own premise to this article by saying that “untouchable” is a little ridiculous.  Team’s should always have a feel for what their guys are worth around the league, despite the fact that such due diligence is the reason Kyrie Irving wanted out of town.

I would be hard pressed to give up Jaylen Brown though, and considering Kawhi’s mysterious injury I don’t know if I would do it for him.  I know how ludicrous it sounds to say I wouldn’t trade for Kawhi, but I would rather try to entice San Antonio with the Kings and Memphis picks, since those are complete unknowns, than give up the guy I’ve already seen exhibit very encouraging performances.

I would be careful about sending away the Memphis pick, however, since if Adam Silver does eliminate the one-and-done rule, then some draft class from 2020-2022 is going to be absolutely loaded, as it will feature both the one-and-done stars from college and the high school senior elite recruits that should be going to college the following fall under the current format.

Out of established stars, I think the only guys I would give up Brown to get (not that you can realistically trade for these guys) are LeBron, Durant, Steph, Harden, Davis, and Giannis.  In terms of other young guys, “NBA prospects” if you will, if we’re defining it by guys 25 or younger, well, maybe I’ll make that it’s own article.

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