2018 NBA Season Awards – Individual

(Photo by Josh Lefkowitz/Getty Images)

The NBA season is over and we now get to collectively enjoy what should be a wonderful Playoffs.  We are here today to talk about the first installment of what will be a three part series for the 2017-2018 NBA Season Awards.

I am going to do mine a little differently than your normal ballot.  Basically, on a real ballot you choose the top 5 for MVP and then the top 3 for all the other awards.  Well, since this isn’t a real ballot and I don’t get to fill out a real ballot either, I’m just going to talk about as many people as I feel deserve attention for each award.  There are six awards and I see clear winners for three and a muddier contest in the other three.  I decided to run through the clear three first before getting into the more difficult conversations on the back half.

Most Valuable Player

Contender: Damian Lillard, Blazers

Most expected the Blazers to be a low to mid 40’s win team and compete at the bottom of the West playoff bracket within a jumbled grouping of teams 7-10.  Portland came up one win shy of 50 wins and I’d say the two biggest reasons are increased play from Damian Lillard, and an entire season of Nurkic’s defense.

Previously, the on/off metrics showed there hasn’t been much of a drop-off when Dame sat and McCollum ran the show, but that changed this year.  The swing in Net Rating from both on the court to only McCollum on the court is a negative 9.5.  In general, the Blazers are 9.1 points per 100 possessions worse when Lillard sits.

Dame finished the season 7th in PER, 11th in Usage, 4th in Offensive Win Shares, 5th in Win Shares, 7th in Win Shares/48 Minutes, 7th in Box Plus/Minus, 3rd in Offensive Box Plus/Minus, 4th in Value Over Replacement Player, and 10th in RPM.

Contender: Giannis Antetokounmpo, Bucks

Giannis took a massive leap this season from top 15 player to MVP finalist.  As his play and his team’s play has tailed off a little bit from early in the season, he has dropped out of contention for the top spot but is comfortably on the ballot.

Giannis finished the season 5th in PER, 7th in Usage, 6th in Offensive Win Shares, 6th in Win Shares, 10th in Box Plus/Minus, and 7th in VORP.

Contender: LeBron James, Cavaliers

LeBron’s statistical profile this season makes a pretty strong argument for LeBron to either win or be the runner up for this award.  LeBron was 3rd in PER, 6th in Usage, 2nd in Offensive Win Shares, 3rd in Win Shares, 9th in WS/48, 2nd in Box Plus/Minus, 4th in Offensive Box Plus/Minus, and 1st in VORP.

He was also absolutely unreal in the clutch.  LeBron played in 45 games with clutch situation basketball, averaging 3.4 minutes per game in such games.  In those minutes LeBron boasted 20.3 Net Rating, 63.4% True Shooting Percentage, 60.4% Assist Percentage, 47.6% Usage Percentage with only an 8.8% Turnover Ratio.

So what gives?  Why isn’t he in the top 2?  Basically from January 1st through the trade deadline, LeBron not only didn’t try, but he essentially tanked his team.  There was infighting, an absolute indifference to defense, and a 6-10 stretch capped by an embarrassing drubbing at the hands of the tanktastic Magic, a game in which Cleveland scored 9 points (nine!) in the 4th quarter.

The Cavaliers desperately needed leadership and LeBron was nowhere to be found.  LeBron had the worst Plus-Minus in the NBA through the first 22 days of January.  He tanked the team so they would trade Isaiah Thomas at the deadline, and obviously got his way.

LeBron also didn’t try for one second on defense this season.  He wouldn’t rotate, he wouldn’t help, he wouldn’t run back.  Zero effort.  The Cavs are 29th in Defensive Rating this year, and when the best player on the team refuses to put any effort into the defensive side of the ball, how can you expect anyone else to try, or be held accountable for not trying, on defense?  Even James Harden tried on defense this year.

Runner Up: Anthony Davis, Pelicans

From the first game they played without Boogie through the end of the season, the Pelicans were 7th in Net Rating, and 5th in Defensive Rating.  Maybe you would expect the defense to experience some addition by subtraction with Cousins going down, but the team was a top 5 unit for two and a half months.  This is part of the reason why Anthony Davis is in the Defensive Player of the Year argument (more on this later).

It is just hard to be in both the MVP and DPOY conversation because of how much energy is required on every single possession.  Without Cousins on the court this year, Davis’ Usage is 32.7%, which would rank 4th in the NBA.

Davis finished 2nd in PER, 5th in Offensive Win Shares, 3rd in Defensive Win Shares, 4th in Win Shares, 5th in WS/48, 10th in VORP, and 8th in RPM.

Davis was also no slouch in the clutch.  Davis played in 41 games featuring clutch play type, and averaged 4.6 minutes in such games.  His Net Rating was 20.5, he posted a 60.4% True Shooting on 29.6% Usage, and only turned the ball over on 6.8% of his possessions.

Winner: James Harden, Rockets

James Harden won’t win a unanimous MVP, but I don’t see an argument to put anyone else atop the ballot.

Harden finished 1st in PER while also finishing 1st in Usage.  He also finished 1st in Offensive Win Shares, 1st in Win Shares, 1st in Win Shares/48, 1st in Box Plus/Minus, 2nd in Offensive Box Plus/Minus, 2nd in VORP, and 3rd in RPM.

For the old school minded voters he was the best player on the best team, and they were the best team in the league from start to finish.  The Rockets finished 1st in point differential, 1st in Net Rating, and 1st in FiveThirtyEight’s ELO Rating.  Harden led the league in points per game while finishing 3rd in assists per game.  He just wrapped up one of the greatest isolation seasons in NBA history.

As for that effort on defense?  Per Zach Lowe, opponents shot 37.5% on post up attempts guarded by Harden, one of the best marks in the league.

Most Improved Player

Contender: Spencer Dinwiddie, Nets

I know Dinwiddie tore his knee years ago but I still think this is a feel good story.  Dinwiddie appeared in a career high 80 games this season and posted career bests in points per game, assists per game, rebounds per game, PER, Assist Rate and Assists/40 Minutes.

Contender: Fred VanVleet, Raptors 

I recently said Fred VanVleet should finish in the top three for both 6th Man and Most Improved, so I kind of have to back track a little here.  I think the cases for VanVleet and the next two guys on my list before getting to the winner are all really close, but I’m going to put VanVleet at a functioning 4th on my ballot.

VanVleet is a guy you may have never thought about who became a member of the closing lineup on the East’s best team.  He shot 41.4% this season and increased his TS% by 11.3%.  I’ll get more into FVV in the 6th Man section.

Contender: Clint Capela, Rockets

Capela went from nice player last season to appearing on multiple leader boards this season.  Capela finished 1st in Field Goal Percentage, 1st in Effective Field Goal Percentage, 6th in TS%, 12th in PER, 5th in Offensive Rebound Percentage, 6th in Defensive Rebound Percentage, 5th in Total Rebound Percentage, 3rd in Block Percent, 3rd in Offensive Rating, 4th in Defensive Rating, 18th in Offensive Win Shares, 6th in Defensive Win Shares, 11th in Win Shares, 4th in Win Shares/48 Minutes, 11th in Defensive Box Plus/Minus, and 18th in Defensive RPM.

Runner Up: Julius Randle, Lakers

But I am going to put Randle higher because of the ecosystem Capela thrived in.  Maybe it isn’t fair to hold it against Capela that he is a member of the Rockets, he can’t really control that.  And obviously he did fantastic in his role.  But that’s just it, it was his role.  I can’t quantify how much he benefitted from having the best one-two ball handling duo on his team, but he did.

Randle’s role eventually became the guy this year.  Randle is a human bulldozer with no threat of a jump shot that continuously attacks the rim on a crowded floor since the Lakers provide no spacing due to a lack of shooting talent on the roster.

And Randle still beasted.  Randle posted career highs in points per game, FG%, 2P%, eFG%, and TS% at a really impressive 60.6% consider he can’t hit threes.  He posted his best Offensive and Defensive rating this season.  He made 72.8% of his shots at the rim, which is just ridiculous.  Randle is a modern big that can switch multiple possessions and grab a defensive rebound and then lead the break.  He doesn’t offer the type of top tier rim protection you want from a big guy, but he plays very solid one-on-one defense against wings in space.

Before the season we were questioning just how in the world would Randle fit into the modern NBA, and I was one of, like, three people left on Julius Randle Island.  Now he’s in line for a contract in the $15-$20 million a year range.

Winner: Victor Oladipo, Pacers

But the winner is Oladipo in a blowout.  Everyone has already quantified this so let’s just quickly frame this in narrative form before getting into the details:

Sam Presti was celebrated in the Paul George trade for not only landing Paul George, but for getting off of Oladipo’s contract.  Fast forward to now and Oladipo is the main offensive engine on a playoff team, an All-NBA consideration, and an All-Defense consideration.

Kevin Pelton outlined how ridiculous Oladipo’s jump this season is not too long ago, but Oladipo posted career highs this year in: points per game, rebounds per game, assists per game, steals per game, FG%, 2P%, 3P%, eFG%, TS%, PER, OWS, DWS, WS, WS/48, OBPM, DBPM, BPM, and VORP.

6th Man of the Year

Contender: Fred VanVleet, Raptors

Back to FVV.  He is the best bench player on the league’s best bench, and is closing games for the league’s deepest team.  The Raptor’s Net Rating with VanVleet on the court is a preposterous 12.1.  Remember, he plays in closing lineups so he isn’t simply bloating these numbers by crushing other teams’ bench units.  In case you were wondering what his teammates think of him, I’ll refer you to the future hanging-in-the-rafters-of-Air-Canada-Centre DeMar DeRozan’s opinion:

Runner Up: Eric Gordon, Rockets

The Rockets’ league best Net Rating is 8.5.  It is 13.1 with Gordon on the court.  Gordon can pair with either Harden or Paul while the other sits and the Rockets’ machine just keeps on humming.  I’m just going to quote something that Zach Lowe wrote: “The Rockets have obliterated opponents by 71 points in 148 minutes Gordon, Paul, and Harden shared the floor — equivalent to almost 30 points per 100 possessions. That is, like, a made-up number.”

Winner: Lou Williams, Clippers

Come on.  We all know this.  It’s been Williams from start to finish.  Williams posted career highs in both points per game and assists per game and did so on solid efficiency.  The Clippers were in the playoff hunt until about three days left in the season, and after Blake got injured we all thought they would fall so far down the standings they wouldn’t stand a chance, and they had every reason to tank.  Lou Williams was essential to their sustained competitiveness amidst a plague of injuries and the Blake Griffin trade.

Rookie of the Year

Contender: Kyle Kuzma, Lakers

After a torrid start, Kuzma slumped in January and February and then finished strong in March and April before an ankle injury.

Here are Kuzma’s rookie ranks among rookies that played at least 500 minutes:

Contender: Jayson Tatum, Celtics

And here are Tatum’s rookie ranks among rookies that played at least 500 minutes:

Runner Up: Donovan Mitchell, Jazz

Winner: Ben Simmons, 76ers

Let’s start with a table, again among rookies that played at least 500 minutes:

There is certainly a lot to digest here.  The overview shows that Simmons bests Mitchell in most categories, and sometimes it isn’t close.  Simmons also, miraculously, has a higher TS% despite a massive free throw and three point percentage advantage for Mitchell.  Simmons went 0/11 from three this season.

Simmons’ true shooting is buoyed by the fact he takes 46% of his shots at the rim and makes an absurd 74.4% of those shots.  So despite the fact everyone knows Simmons has no jump shot and is just going to drive, he basically does so at will.

If you want to argue that due to Mitchell’s shot creation responsibilities that their offensive impact should be considered essentially tied then fine, I’ll accept such a premise for the sake of argument.  Where Simmons really separates himself for this award is on the defensive end.  This isn’t a slight at Mitchell, but rookies typically are awful at defense and Simmons is garnering All-NBA Defense consideration.  Simmons finished second in the league in Defensive Win Shares.  He is 9th in Defensive Rating and 4th in Defensive Box Plus/Minus.

I get that Simmons got to hang around the coaching staff and film sessions for a year before playing, an advantage that Mitchell didn’t have.  And yes, I almost went with Mitchell because of this:

I know this debate is intensely argued, but for me I don’t see the case for Mitchell.  If you vote for him I’m not saying you’re wrong, I just can’t find a way to agree.  However, I do want to take this opportunity to say this: When someone says something about one of these guys, and then a fan of the team for the other guy chimes in with “you clearly never watch our games!” the truth is, the only people in this conversation that don’t watch both teams/players are the people screaming “you don’t watch our games!”

Defensive Player of the Year

Contender: Al Horford, Celtics

Al Horford is the best defensive player on the team with the best Defensive Rating (barely).  Among players that played in at least 41 games and defended at least 4 shots per game within 6 feet of the basket, Horford ranks 10th in DFG%.  Horford finished 15th in Defensive Win Shares and 9th in Defensive Box Plus/Minus.

Contender: Anthony Davis, Pelicans

The Pelicans, with Davis on the floor, have a Defensive Rating of 103.4, which would tie Houston for the 6th best mark in the league.  Overall, the Pelicans Defensive Rating ranks 13th.  Davis led the league in blocks, was 7th in DRPM, and among players who played in at least 41 games, and defended at least 4 shots a game within 6 feet of the basket, Davis was 5th in the league in Defended Field Goal Percentage on such shots.

Runner Up: Rudy Gobert, Jazz

Deciding between Gobert and Embiid was like pulling teeth.  I think that Gobert was the best defensive player in the NBA this season, but he only got to 56 games.  Embiid didn’t blow him out of the water by playing 63 games, but there is somewhat of a precedent here.  Kawhi Leonard won this award in 2015 having played 64 games.  Do you go for most outstanding or who provided the most value?

I think on Defensive Player of the Year we should walk the line between most outstanding and most valuable.  If you think about the MVP award, the word value is in there, so it has to be in consideration.  However, when it comes to the All-NBA teams, most voters will lean toward outstanding play as long as you hit a certain threshold for games played.

The word “value” isn’t in the Defensive Player of the Year award name, but, at least in theory, we’re trying to pick the defensive MVP.  Since it isn’t called as such, though, I think we should toe the line.  While Gobert had a larger impact on the court, Embiid was on the court more, and is just one game shy of the 64 games played precedent established in 2015.

The Jazz finished 2nd in Defensive Rating (barely), and their Defenisve Rating is an outrageous 97.7 when Gobert is on the floor.  Gobert ranks 6th in the NBA in DFG% on shots within 6 feet of the basket, among players having played at least 41 games and contesting at least 4 such shots per game.

Gobert finished the season 2nd in Block%, 2nd in Defensive Rating, 12th in Defensive Win Shares (despite playing only 56 games), 2nd in Defensive Box Plus/Minus, and was 1st in the league, comfortably, in DRPM.

Winner: Joel Embiid, 76ers

Embiid was the defensive anchor for the 3rd best defense by Defensive Rating.  When Embiid was on the floor the 6ers Defensive Rating was 99.7, which would have been the best mark in the league over a full season.  Embiid ranks second in DFG% on shots within 6 feet of the basket, among players who played at least 41 games and contested at least 4 such shots per game.

Embiid finishes the season with the 7th best Block%, 3rd best Defensive Rating, 13th in Defensive Win Shares, and 10th in DRPM.

Coach of the Year

Shoutouts: Pop, Doc Rivers, Terry Stotts, Nate McMillan, Spo

Contender: Brad Stevens, Celtics

I don’t know what there is to say about Stevens that hasn’t already been said.  He transitioned seamlessly after the Hayward injury, lost Kyrie for the year, and still boasted the best Defensive Rating, 6th best Net Rating, and 6th best point differential.

Contender: Quin Snyder, Jazz

The Jazz were 19-28 and had every incentive to tank.  Hayward left, the expectations weren’t high, and the West is crowded, so it made sense to just hit the lottery one more time.  But Snyder Trusted The Process.  The culture in Utah was so great that no one quit and everyone believed they were just on the verge.

And everyone in Utah was right.  The Jazz finished 48-34, meaning they went 29-6 over their final 35 games.  They charged from 10th in the West to 5th, losing out on home-court in the first round due to a tie breaker.  Utah finished 5th in point differential, 5th in Net Rating, 2nd in Defensive Rating, and 3rd in ELO Rating.

The Jazz sport the league’s most intricate, exacting, egalitarian offense, and it is all from the mind of Snyder.

Contender: Brett Brown, 76ers

I don’t understand why Brett Brown isn’t getting more love in this category.  I know the 6ers added veterans before the season (Redick), and during the season (Belinelli, Ilyasova), but the core of this team is youth.  Embiid, Simmons, Saric, T.J. McConnell are all playing in their first, second or fourth year.  Markelle Fultz vanished into an abyss in the strangest story in league history (maybe).

Yet here we are.  The 6ers are riding a 16 game winning streak into the playoffs, and they won their last 8 games without Embiid, including a thrilling win over Cleveland where Simmons dazzled with a triple-double.  Embiid went down 9 minutes into the game where he was injured, so functionally the team won its last 9 games without him.  It wasn’t a murderous row of opponents during that 9 game stretch, but the team had its sights on the 3 seed and reached its goal.

So, Brown took a young team, won 52 games, finished 4th in point differential, 4th in Net Rating, and 4th in FiveThirtyEight’s ELO Rating.  Wait, maybe Brown should just win?

Runner Up: Mike D’Antoni, Rockets

I also don’t understand why no one is seriously considering D’Antoni for COTY.  I know he won last year and the media hates being boring and likes to chase shiny new things, but the Rockets were hands down the league’s best team start to finish.

Houston finished 1st in point differential, 1st in Net Rating, and 1st in Elo Rating.  D’Antoni may get knocked for not having to coach too much since the entire offense is a high pick and roll with an elite ball handler and everyone else standing beyond the three point line, and the entire defense is switch everything across all five positions, but he deserves credit for not over-coaching.

Over-coaching is what led to LaMarcus Aldridge asking Pop for a trade.  Since Pop is Pop, he realized he had just made a mistake, admitted to over-coaching and then adjusted correctly.  Now LMA will find himself on an All-NBA team after this season.

It seems like a lot of times when we begin the conversations about who is deserving of an award we start with what adversity did you overcome instead of how well did you perform?  I’m not saying this is wrong, but the Rockets performed the best and it isn’t particularly close.  They got to 65 wins in a year where no one else broke 60.

Winner: Dwane Casey, Raptors

Casey’s argument is built on two foundations: being the best team in the East and top three team in the league all season, and player development.  The Raptors finished second in wins (59), 2nd in point differential, 3rd in Net Rating, and 2nd in ELO Rating.

The Raptors famously changed their offensive philosophy coming into this season and it went about as smoothly as possible.  It wasn’t all roses the first five or eight games, and Kyle Lowry even questioned the change, but they stuck with it and it clearly worked.

Masai Ujiri is the one that gets credit for roster construction and it is assistant coach Nick Nurse who gets credit for re-creating the offense.  The Raptors, because of Nurse, drilled the new offensive system into their heads by playing pick-up this past summer where corner threes counted as four points, and shots outside the paint but inside the arc were worth either zero points or negative one point.

But none of this works without Casey being open to change.  That is leadership.  Learn and adapt.  He listened to the concept, saw the merits, and headed forward.  He enabled this.

Casey also enabled this bench.  The Raptors bench units are destroying other teams’ bench units, and most of these guys are people who have come through this organization.  Kyle Lowry has taken a small step backwards this year and the team got better.  P.J. Tucker and Patrick Patterson left, and the team got better.

None of this happens, none of it, without Dwane Casey’s oversight.