On Wednesday, April 4th, the Celtics and Raptors will play in Toronto, and it is possible that after the conclusion of that game the Celtics will be in first place in the Eastern Conference. If you just read that sentence and then thought to yourself, “wait, what? Wasn’t the race for the East 1 seed over? Wasn’t Toronto up 5 games like yesterday?” I completely understand where you’re coming from. Recently, Toronto’s lead on the 1 seed has been as high as 5.5 games. Here is how we got here:
The Raptors beat Dallas to improve to 52-17 on March 16th. Since then they have gone 3-4 with losses in both Cleveland and Boston. Meanwhile, the injury ravaged Celtics are on a 6 game winning streak that started with a home win over Oklahoma City, a 4-game Western road trip that they swept, and the aforementioned home win over Toronto.
If Toronto loses tonight, Tuesday, April 3rd, in Cleveland, and Boston is able to win in Milwaukee, then Boston will be only 1 game behind Toronto with a chance to win the season series 3-1 on Wednesday night. Most people probably have Casey and Stevens in the top 2 for Coach of the Year. Personally, I think it’s a three headed monster. If Boston jumps atop the Eastern Conference with 4 games to go, the award probably becomes Stevens’ to lose. Same for Toronto and Casey. Let’s run through the candidacies.
I have previously spoken about Toronto’s dominance this season, which puts Casey squarely into the COTY conversation.
All season the hierarchy of the NBA has been three teams – Houston, Golden State, Toronto – based on every metric. In Net Rating, point differential, and win projection totals, these three teams have completely distanced themselves from the rest of the league.
Casey’s case is built on two foundations: Toronto being easily the best team in the conference and top three in the league, and player development.
The Raptors, unanimously, are viewed as the deepest team in the league. Their bench units are killing opposing teams’ bench units. Keep in mind that this is happening and the team let P.J. Tucker and Patrick Patterson walk in free agency last summer while receiving nothing in return. Fred VanVleet, who you may have never heard of prior to this season, should finish in the top three for both 6th Man of the Year and Most Improved Player.
If Toronto holds onto the 1 seed then it is “more probable than not,” that Casey will take home COTY. There are two obstacles in the way however, and they both arrive either today or tomorrow.
When Toronto lost in Cleveland last week, it dropped Toronto’s recent record in Cleveland to 1 for their last 675. Or something close to that. Ok, maybe it’s like 1-17. They just can’t scrounge up a win in that city, and now with their conference lead dwindling, they have to go back to Cleveland on the front end of a back to back that features playing the Celtics on the back end of that back to back.
FiveThirtyEight is still projecting the Raptors to claim the 1 seed. They say Toronto will end up with 59 wins and Boston 57. Toronto is currently at 55-21 with their last six games as: at Cleveland, vs Boston, vs Indiana, vs Orlando, at Detroit, at Miami. There is a chance they only win the Orlando and Detroit games, or perhaps split and go 3-3. That gets them to 57 or 58 wins. I’m not saying that will happen, I’m just saying it’s a possible outcome.
Boston’s remaining schedule (currently 53-23) is: at Milwaukee, at Toronto, vs Chicago, vs Atlanta, at Washington, vs Brooklyn. Boston’s floor appears to be 3-3 down the stretch, and by the time they get to Washington the Wizards could be locked into the 6 seed and be resting their starters with nothing to play for.
If Boston wins out and Toronto loses at least two of its last six games, the Celtics will get the 1 seed. Will this be enough to get Brad Stevens the COTY award?
Even if Toronto falters and blows the 1 seed, Boston won’t be able to surpass them by any team metrics. The Raptors point differential of 7.8 to Boston’s 4.1, and the Raptor’s Net Rating of 7.7 to Boston’s 4.2, are too superior with six games left to be overtaken by the Celtics. But if Toronto blows a 5.5 game lead with 13 games to play, and loses the season series to Boston 3-1, this creates a nice storyline for the writers to vote for when they fill out their ballot.
Oh, and think of the recency bias. The Celtics are limping to the finish line. Marcus Smart has missed the last 9 games and is out til who knows when. Kyrie Irving has missed the last 9 games and will probably miss the first round of the playoffs. The Celtics just swept a 4-game Western road trip, a trip puncuated by a come-from-behind win in Utah where Kyrie Irving, Al Horford, Marcus Smart, and Marcus Morris didn’t play. Aka, the best offensive player, two best defensive players, and valuable rotation player didn’t suit up for the Celtics.
Terry Rozier had 11 points in the 4th quarter, and Jaylen Brown hit the game winning three with one second left. It’s the type of rousing victory, against the surging Utah Jazz, that leaves a lasting image in everyone’s mind.
And let’s not forget, Stevens’ ability to pivot from losing Gordon Hayward opening night to then blitzing the league to open the season 22-4 may seem like a life time ago, but it still carries the same value all these months later. Boston may have had a lull before hitting another stride here as the season winds down, but the Celtics have always been a top two seed in the conference this season and will end up getting only 60 games out of Kyrie and 5 minutes out of Hayward. Guys like Semi Ojeleye and his 3.95 PER are getting 15 minutes a game and Boston just keeps on humming.
But a COTY conversation without Mike D’Antoni is an illegitimate COTY conversation.
I know he won last year and we don’t like to repeat winners because it is boring, but look at what D’Antoni has done this season. The Rockets are second in Net Rating, first in point differential, first in ELO rating, and they won the season series against the Warriors 2-1. The first of those wins came on opening night, in Golden State, after the Warriors had their ring ceremony, with Chris Paul leaving mid-game because of an injury.
Speaking of Chris Paul and injuries, CP3 has suited up only 54 times this year and considering the Rockets are locked into the 1 seed I’m not sure how many more times we will see him in the final 5 games. D’Antoni did say the Rockets need rhythm, not rest, so perhaps he will do something foolish and rush Paul back, but Chris Paul is easily this team’s second best player and he will end up having missed a third of the season.
And if the Rockets win out they will hit 67 wins, which is a very impressive number. They have the leagues highest Offensive Rating (by the slimmest of margins over Golden State), they’re 7th in Defensive Rating, they’re averaging the second most points per game and allowing the 8th fewest points per game. The Rockets are one of three teams – Houston, Golden State, Toronto (shocking) – that rank in the top 10 for both Offensive and Defensive Rating, and one of two teams – Houston and Toronto – that rank in both the top ten for Points per Game and Points Allowed per Game.
Mike D’Antoni has embraced and deployed the absolute extreme of modern basketball. The Rockets offense, if it is not a Harden ISO, is Harden or Chris Paul running a high pick and roll with a big, for instance Capela, and the three other players are all standing outside the three point line. Just get out of the way. The ball handler is either going to get a layup, get to the line, throw a lob for the diving big man, or find a guy ready to catch and shoot. Space the floor, don’t go near the lane, let our un-guard-able ball handler do his thing.
And defensively they just switch everything. Absolutely everything, across all five positions, no matter who is on the court. They built this roster so that was a realistic strategy. By doing so they have actually unleashed a situation where Harden is a plus defender. James Harden, due to his strength, is a good post defender. And considering how it is the small ball era, when he does get posted up it is by a guy that is about 6’8″, and not 7’0″.
For what it’s worth, Basketball-Reference has the Rockets with a higher Offensive Rating than at NBA.com. But according to Basketball-Reference, the 2017-28 Rockets have the 4th highest Offensive Rating in the history of its database.
So there are your finalists for Coach of the Year. The next two days are going to absolutely crucial for whoever ends up winning. The next two days may even determine the winner. With so many intriguing races around the league – West 4-8, East 3-5, East 6-8, Tankapalooza, ROY – the East 1 seed and COTY could be settled within the next 32 hours.
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