These Raptors Are Different – and Dangerous

[Seriously, can the Raptors just switch back to this logo and the corresponding uniforms?]

Full disclosure: When I first came up with the idea for this article it was prior to the trade deadline and I was going to proclaim that Toronto would win the Eastern Conference this season.  They have easily been the best team in the East this year, and the Cavaliers a. hated each other and b. couldn’t defend a G-League team.  At the break, Cleveland ranks 28th in Defensive Rating.

I’m not one to overreact to what happens from October through January, and until the day comes that LeBron isn’t on the team winning the Eastern Conference Title, his team should remain the favorite to do so.  But the pre-deadline Cavs were very different than previous iterations.  Kyrie wasn’t around to be a secondary shot creator, IT failed to replace Kyrie in such a role, J.R. Smith and Iman Shumpert seemed utterly useless, and the defense was so horrifyingly terrible it didn’t appear there would be an “on” button for the playoffs.

I also don’t want to overreact to two regular season games of the new-look Cavs, but in those games they blew out Boston in Boston and beat the Thunder comfortably in OKC.  They looked engaged, they actually gave effort on the defensive end, and LeBron was having fun again.

So, even though it is two games, I am going to back off declaring that Toronto will finally dethrone LeBron in the East, but I want to illustrate that come late May, it is a distinct possibility.

Before going into any specifics, let’s establish a truth of the NBA season thus far: Toronto has been hands down the 3rd best team in the league, and the best in the East.

At the All-Star break, the Raptors are 2nd in the NBA in point differential.  The top three teams – Houston, Toronto, Golden State – are all in the +8’s.  No other team in the league is even in the +4’s.  Toronto is 3rd in the league in Net Rating, where the top three teams – Golden State, Houston, Toronto – are all +8 or better, and no other team is even +4.  They are 3rd in Basketball-Reference’s SRS, and second in Second Spectrum’s Player Impact Estimate (PIE).

FiveThirtyEight paints a very rosy picture for any Raptor fan.  The Raptors are 2nd in ELO rating (between Houston and Golden State), have the 2nd highest projected point differential per game come season’s end (between Houston and Golden State), and, along with Houston and Golden State, are one of three teams projected to reach 60 wins.  The next highest win projection is Boston with 52.

Also according to FiveThirtyEight, the Raptors have the best chance of any team in the entire NBA of reaching the Finals, and the third highest odds of winning the Finals.  It makes sense their odds of reaching the Finals would be the highest in the league, as Houston and Golden State (presumably) must play each other to win the West.  But the Raptors chances of winning the East are at 51%, so better than a coin flip.

However, the model can’t account for the fact the Cavs traded half their team for a new half of a team right before the deadline.  It does, however, seem to manage at least somewhat to account for the fact that experienced title contenders don’t try very hard during the regular season.  FiveThirtyEight utilizes a Playoff CARMELO Adjustment to calculate the odds of a team reaching and winning the Finals, and the two highest playoff adjustments belong to – shockingly – Cleveland and Golden State.

Golden State’s playoff adjustment is +47, which is absolutely dwarfed by Cleveland’s leading playoff adjustment of +80.  So the Cavs have a new team, a better team, that will try harder in the playoffs and, of course, have LeBron.  And for the past four seasons we have all witnessed the Raptors play below their season long performance levels in the playoffs every year.  DeRozan and Lowry can’t buy a bucket, they go to game 7’s with inferior teams, they got embarrassingly swept by the Cavs last year and pretty much were the victims of a six game sweep in the Conference Finals against Cleveland two years ago.

We are all just waiting for history to repeat each itself.  LeBron and Co. will trounce Boston on its way to trouncing Toronto before falling victim to the Warriors.  Why even bother watching, right?  This year is different.

The Raptors are a balanced team offensively and defensively, as well as with their starting lineup and its bench.  Toronto is 4th in both Offensive and Defensive Rating and mostly rank well in the four factors on both offense and defense:

Toronto is also easily the deepest team in the NBA.  Their roster goes a legitimate 12 deep with viable NBA rotation players.  And their bench is straight jockin’ on fools.

Out of all 3-man lineup combos in the league that have played at least 350 minutes together, Toronto has 7 of the 19 best lineups by Net Rating.  This includes the top two groupings.  But the craziest part is none of those seven man combinations features a single starter!  The bench unit is swamping the league to the tune of a plus-31.1 Net Rating in its 172 minutes together, per ESPN.

Having so much depth gives Dwane Casey options.  Where other playoff teams will be shortening their rotations from 10 guys down to 8 or perhaps 7, Casey will be going from 12 guys to 10 or 9.  His finishing lineup will be a little fresher at the end of games.  Casey has a couple extra weapons to use in specific matchups against specific opponent lineups.  He has a few more fouls to use and a few more guys to throw at the likes of Giannis, John Wall, Bradley Beal, Kyrie, and LeBron.

The biggest changes fundamentally for Toronto on offense this season are pace and shot selection.  The Raptors are taking the 4th most three point attempts per game this season, and playing at the 9th fastest pace.  Of the previous four teams that Toronto has sent to the playoffs, none of them has ranked in the top 10 in both three point attempts and pace in the same season.

The past two seasons the Raptors were 22nd and 19th in three point attempts per game, but in the preceding two seasons actually ranked 9th and 10th.  However, they have never been one to push the tempo.  Working backwards in time, the Raptors previous four league ranks in pace are 22nd, 29th, 20th, and 23rd.  The stark difference plus seamless transition in these areas is why Dwane Casey should be getting Coach of the Year buzz.

The Raptors will likely be able to fire away against Cleveland, as they are allowing the most amount of three point attempts per game along with the second most made three point shots per game in the league.

Toronto is also taking the 4th most shots in the restricted area, and sporting the 10th highest field goal percentage on those shots.  To really round out how much the Raptors have embraced Moreyball, they are attempting the 5th fewest mid-range shots in the league.  Here is where Toronto has ranked each of the past four seasons in those two shot types:

With the exception of last season, Toronto has never really fancied the mid-range game, but they have been allergic to shots in the restricted area in three out of the last four years and treated those allergies with a really crappy generic store brand drug the other year.

The shots in the restricted area are going to pose a problem to Cleveland.  Cleveland’s defended field goal percentage on such shots is good for 26th in the league.  When the Cavs go to lineups with Kevin Love as a small ball center, it’ll be come eat buffet style.

And pile the plate the Raptors will.  Considering Toronto takes the 4th most shots in the restricted area it’ll hardly come as a shock that they are second in the league in drives per game, and first in the league in points per game from drives.

The Raptors offense is pretty well rounded in that they are efficient in a multitude of ways.  Their offense ranks in the top eight in points per possession in almost every play type tracked by Second Spectrum.  This doesn’t bode well for Cleveland, who is 26th in opponent field goal percentage.  Take a look:

In the other two play type categories of significance, Spot Up and Cutting, the Raptors rank 14th in the league in both.  So, to sum up, the Raptors rank in the top 8 in 8/10 offensive play types by points per possession, and top 14 in the remaining two categories.

The defense has modernized too.  Opponents are taking the second fewest three point attempts per game against the Raptors at 25 a night.  Opponents are also shooting 34.8% on those threes, the 5th best defensive mark in the league.  Over a 57 game sample that number could be noisy or fluky, so I don’t want to crown the Raptors’ perimeter defense incredible, but it does suggest they’re at least doing something right.

They are also forcing the opposition into the 6th most amount of two point shots in the league, where the Raptors once again sport the 5th best defensive field goal percentage in that category.  Perhaps part of the reason why teams are shooting so few threes against the Raptors is because Toronto is allowing the 4th most field goal attempts per game in the restricted area in the league, and the 5th most field goal attempts in the paint (non-RA).  However, Toronto has proven to be quite stingy on defense in these areas, as their defended field goal percentage on restricted area shots is 2nd best in the NBA, and 6th best against field goal attempts in the paint (non-RA).

Valanciunas, Poeltl, and Ibaka are providing rim-protecting services.  Out of players that have played at least 25 games and are defending at least 4 shots per game within 6 feet of the basket, Poeltl has the 5th best defended field goal percentage while Valanciunas sports the 21st best defended field goal percentage.  Ibaka is 14th in blocks per game (Poeltl is 20th).  We have come a long way from the days of just counting rebounds and blocks and declaring someone good at defense or as a rim protector, but it is at least a nice option for the Raptors for when they choose to go small to have someone with a shot blocking reputation of Ibaka’s on the last line, even if he isn’t necessary altering too many shots in actuality.

There are warning signs that the team has not completely turned the corner.  Their performance drop off in the playoffs has been well chronicled, and if we attribute that fact, at least in part, to how Toronto behaves in high-stakes situations, then Toronto’s clutch time numbers this season are cause for serious concern.

In clutch play the Raptors rate 27th in Net Rating.  The mark of -11.4 is a swing of -19.5 from their Net Rating on the season.  Here are the rest of the Raptors rankings in key categories during clutch situations this season:

Perhaps no stretch of games better encapsulates the Raptors’ season than their seven game winning streak heading into the All-Star break.  With the exception of a 3-point win over Miami last Tuesday – a game Toronto led by 16 inside of five minutes – the closest margin of victory on the Raptors’ current winning streak is 15.  The seven game win streak includes a 20 point blow out against Boston.  The Raptors are either crushing you, struggling to manufacture buckets in the last five minutes, or both.

Despite this, Toronto may be able to navigate clutch time come this postseason thanks to DeMar DeRozan.  Among players who have played in at least 10 games featuring clutch minutes, played 2.5 minutes per game in such situations, and used at least 20% of his team’s plays, DeMar DeRozan is performing on par with Kyrie Irving and James Harden.  While his personal Net Rating of -11.4 is eye popping, DeRozan is give or take the same as Harden and Kyrie in eFG%, TS%, TO%, Usage Rate, REB%, and PIE in the clutch this year on a comparable amount of minutes.

{Tangent: Chris Paul is unreal.  His clutch Net Rating this year is 52.5!  His eFG% is 75%, his TS% is 84.6%, and that’s on a 34% Usage Rate.  He trails only LeBron in PIE during clutch minutes on the season within the parameters I used to filter the data.  He is 5th in AST%.  There is no way you can convince me Chris Paul has not been a top five player in the NBA this season while on the court.}

The biggest offensive key is going to be if teams will close out to DeRozan on the three point line (or any supporting cast member).  Sometimes your reputation as a shot maker can be in a sense as valuable than your actual shooting ability.  If teams feel the need to have a guy fly out to challenge DeRozan’s shot, he can then attack the rim, and we have established how good Toronto is on drives.

DeRozan is shooting 32.7% this season from three this year, which would be the second best mark of his career.  He is basically taking one three a game where no one is within six feet of him, and he is hitting those shots at a 44.5% clip.  Tiny sample though.

If we change the closest defender to within 4-6 feet of DeRozan, well, DeMar might actually hope someone rushes to close out so he can drive by him.  He is shooting a putrid 27% on 1.7 three point attempts per game with the nearest defender in that range, and his overall eFG% of 45.9% ranks 82nd out of 96 players that have played at least 25 games this season and take 3.0 or more shots per game with the nearest defender within 4-6 feet.

DeRozan appears to shoot better in tight and very tight coverage than he does when left alone.  Teams probably should let him shoot all he wants if he springs open, but telling your defense to not challenge the other team’s best offensive weapon runs counterintuitive to how NBA players’ brains are wired.

The Raptors as a whole actually seem to prefer being contested on their shots.  They rank 2nd in the NBA in eFG% on very tightly contested shots, and 5th in tightly contested shots.  Conversely, they rank 13th in eFG% on both open and wide open shots.

My best guess, however, is the Raptors will receive plenty of open shots in the playoffs.  Other than Lowry, Miles, and corner three Ibaka, the Raptors don’t have reputational or functional shooters.  Even though Toronto is taking the 5th most three point attempts per game, they’re tied for only 18th in three point percentage.  The Cavaliers would implore the Raptors to attempt to beat them in a shootout.

Everyone’s sphincter gets a little tighter in the playoffs.  OG is a rookie that teams will probably let prove himself as ready for the spotlight of the postseason.  Smart coaches like Spoelstra and Stevens will let people you previously never cared about, guys with names like Delon Wright, Norman Powell, Pascal Siakam, and Fred VanVleet, fire away until it gets to a point where you might think, not even that this is sustainable long-term, but that this guy could have a hot couple games resulting in us going home for the summer.

Celtics fans will hate that I didn’t spend any time matching up Toronto and Boston.

I expect the East seeding to play out as: 1. Toronto 2. Boston 3. Cleveland.  And I expect the Cavs to beat the Celtics in the East semis.

Should Boston upset Cleveland I don’t think they will have the firepower to beat out Toronto.  As wonderful as Kyrie has been this year, the Celtics are down to 21st in Offensive Rating.  They do sport the best Defensive Rating and can keep things close, but there’s too much Toronto is good at to really best 4 out of 7 times for Boston.  Here is how Boston compares to Toronto in the offensive categories where Toronto excels:

Most categories are a significant advantage for the Raptors.  The other two categories, Spot Up and Cutting, Boston outpaces Toronto 10th to 14th for Spot Ups, while Toronto bests Boston 14th to 24th in Cutting.

We don’t know the ceiling for the Cavs yet.  George Hill brings shot creation, shooting, defense, and big game experience.  Rodney Hood brings shooting and size.  Larry Nance brings defense.  Jordan Clarkson brings some shot creation.  The early returns on this venture are good (despite whatever long-term flexibility they forfeited).

But the Raptors have adapted to the modern game and the results through 57 games are fantastic.  They are also the deepest team in the league, and if you want to go down narrative street, they’re hungry to prove everyone wrong that they will just always falter in the post season.

(By the way, it is incredible to me that this is the deepest team in the league and in the offseason they shipped off DeMarre Carrol, and let Patrick Patterson and P.J. Tucker walk in free agency.)

Maybe Toronto will suffer the fate of the 2012-2013 Pacers and lose to LeBron in 7 games.  Maybe they will decisively lose in 6 games again.  But this team is ready to really push for the Eastern Conference crown.  No empire lasts forever, and some day LeBron won’t win the East (perhaps that will be next year because he joined the West).  FiveThirtyEight’s 51% chance of Toronto winning the conference is probably high, but the chance, for the first time, is real.