Three Team Trade
Cavaliers Receive: Rodney Hood, George Hill
Jazz Receive: Jae Crowder, Derrick Rose, 2nd Round Swap Rights with Cleveland in 2024
Kings Receive: Joe Johnson, Iman Shumpert, Miami’s 2020 2nd Round Pick
Cleveland Cavaliers: B
I’ll do this trade first since at least the Cavs did well for themselves here. First, about the money, Iman Shumpert’s $11 million player option for next season plus Crowder’s $7.3 million salary for next year is only $700k less than Hill’s $19 million next season, so the Cavs didn’t really take on money regarding these three contracts.
On the court Hill can help, in theory. He is a shot creator who is big for his position and plays plus defense across both guard positions if he is healthy and trying (both debatably true during his stint on the Kings). He is shooting a league leading 45% from three this season, although on low volume. He is certainly a capable three point shooter though, as he has finished each of the past two seasons above 40%.
If you just ignore Derrick Rose, the Cavs basically sold low on Crowder and gave the Jazz second round swap rights in 2024 so they could bring in Hood. Hood is a good option for the Cavs ahead of his restricted free agency in the summer. He is shooting 39% from three this season and provides a lot of size and length. If the Cavs don’t want to pay Hood they can let him walk, but they have his restricted rights and can match any deal if they think it is fair value.
It seems like Crowder had to go. I like the odds he rebounds but apparently he has refused to get into shape this season. It is tough to be hard on him since he is dealing with the passing of his mother, but the Cavaliers are trying to win a championship.
Losing the upside of Crowder regaining form, however, hurts the Cavs against Golden State. Crowder was the perfect 3 and D player to throw at Kevin Durant should there be a fourth straight Finals rematch. Of course, this assumes Crowder regains his Boston form this season, but the Cavs no longer have anyone with the upside of Crowder for that very specific job and it looks as if those duties will fall upon Jeff Green. Yikes.
Of course with Hill the Cavs did get better at defending Steph Curry. Hill, however, does have a lingering toe issue and could potentially miss time in the playoffs because of it should it be re-aggravated. Hood also has dealt with injuries during his career. The Cavs upgraded their roster, or at least upgraded their floor, but if both Hill and Hood go down with injuries the Cavs are majorly screwed.
Utah Jazz: B
The Jazz were shopping Hood and perhaps they could have gotten a draft pick, but given that the only first rounder to change hands on deadline day was in the Lakers Cavs trade, odds are they would have had to settle for a second rounder for Hood. Utah at that point probably decided it was better to hold onto Hood.
When the option of swapping Hood for Crowder became available clearly Utah deemed this the best course of action. It is a solid buy low on a 3 and D guy that stretches the floor further than Favors does next to Gobert. I also have to assume this spells the end of Favors in Utah after this season.
Crowder is on a bargain deal for two seasons after this one so getting him on a cost controlled contract for Hood’s expiring one was a good move for Utah. The potential downside here is that Crowder never does bounce back to his peak Boston days which makes you wonder just how good or valuable Crowder really is and would it have been better to sign Hood long-term?
Sacramento Kings: B-
The Kings basically are saving $8 million on their cap sheet next season by getting off Hill for Shumpert (assuming he accepts his $11 million option next year) and the soon to be bought out Joe Johnson. In addition they get Miami’s second round pick in 2020. So they dumped money and got a second rounder for their troubles. Good job, although one could argue they got nothing for a good player but I wouldn’t want to be on the hook for Hill’s contract.
The reason this grade isn’t higher, although I don’t know if I should really factor this in, is that the Kings needed to clear a roster spot to bring in both Johnson and Shumpert, so they traded Malachi Richardson, one of their first round picks in 2016, for Bruno Caboclo, in order to waive less money. Well, I guess the Kings are interested in seeing if Caboclo was properly projected as being “two years away from being two years away,” on draft night, because in classic Kings fashion instead of waiving Caboclo they instead waived Georgios Papagiannis, the 13th pick of the 2016 draft by the Kings. Kings are gonna Kings I guess.
Cavaliers Receive: Jordan Clarkson, Larry Nance Jr.
Lakers Receive: Isaiah Thomas, Channing Frye, 2018 1st Round Pick (Top 3 Protected)
Cleveland Cavaliers: D
Who negotiated this trade? Did the person negotiating it know they were going to bring in Hood and Hill later in the day, thus burying Clarkson in the guard rotation?
At this point the conventional wisdom is the Cavs were going after Nance with their first round pick and the Lakers brought taking on Clarkson into the fold and getting back expiring money. I really think the Lakers would have done this deal had the Cavs accepted eating Clarkson’s contract as the price of acquiring Nance, and sending back only expiring contracts. You send out picks to dump bad salary, you don’t send them out to acquire bad salary.
I can see why the Cavs wanted Nance as he is bouncy, smart, energetic and is maybe their best defender. The Cavs made a move to go for it with LeBron, which is the right thing to do, but mortgaged their future too much to do so.
The Grizzlies were desperate to get a first round pick for Tyreke Evans who is better than Jordan Clarkson and on an expiring deal. The same can be said for Avery Bradley, who the Clippers were shopping for a first round pick.
Believe it or not I am higher on Clarkson than most people, but his contract is still a negative asset. He is posting a career best True Shooting Percentage of 53.2%, which is below the league average of 55.6%. He has $26 million of guaranteed money left on his deal after this year. The Cavs are looking at an astronomical tax bill should LeBron return. Their tax bill this year is going to be $50 million and they brought in $28 million of guaranteed money between the two deals. Say what you want about Dan Gilbert, but he is willing to spend on a contender.
There’s a theory Clarkson may improve in his new environment since his creative burden will be lessened and he can operate more as a catch and shoot option. Clarkson has a 50.6% eFG this season, which ranks 138th in the NBA among players who take at least 1 spot up shot a game and have played at least 30 games.
Clarkson doesn’t help much on defense either, despite his size, as he is defending 2.8 points per 100 possessions worse than league average.
The Cavs sold low on IT, which they had to do. They didn’t have time to wait to see if he would ever make some improvement in play this season after his hip injury. He also clearly had become a locker room cancer. He’s the new guy in the room and the one leading the allegation that Kevin Love faked an illness to skip a game. He talked about what his former teams had done differently than Cleveland, and conveniently forgot his former team had been blown out of the playoffs by 50 points by his new team. The Cavs had to move on.
Los Angeles Lakers: A+
The Lakers could not have, realistically, done any better than this. They have been trying to get off of Clarkson’s contract since Magic took over and they refused to give up a draft pick in order to do so. Well, normally in the NBA to dump money you need to surrender a draft pick for the other team to do you the favor. Apparently Cleveland never got that memo.
The Cavs were going after Nance with their first round pick but somehow were talked into taking Clarkson back in the deal. The Lakers probably would have been happy to make the cost of acquiring Nance eating Clarkson’s contract and receiving just the expiring money in return.
Instead they get a first round pick in addition to receiving expiring contracts and sending long-term money out the door. The Lakers now have enough cap space for two max slots in 2018 and an extra asset should they return to trying to get someone to eat Deng’s contract.
This is an absolute home-run for the Lakers.
Cavaliers Receive: 2024 Protected 2nd Round Pick
Heat Receive: Dwayne Wade
Cleveland Cavaliers: B
After the Cavs brought in Clarkson, Hood and Hill, Wade would have ended up buried in the rotation and there really wasn’t a point to keeping him. By trading him away to Miami it opened up a roster spot for them to use on the buyout market and netted them a second round pick. It is top 55 protected, but considering Wade was rendered entirely valueless to the team, at least they got something.
Miami Heat: B
Wade gets to “go home” after the Cavs traded for guys to come in and take his minutes. Miami basically surrendered nothing to get Wade, who can at least bring playoff experience and leadership to Miami if they make the playoffs. FiveThirtyEight has that at an 80% chance right now. There’s also the other bonus that the team just saw a massive spike in jersey sales.
Heat put @DwyaneWade jerseys on sale at 5pm yesterday. Received orders from more than 100 countries in 15 hours. Team merchandise sales are up 8000% from the previous two days. pic.twitter.com/nD3Gt0v2Ai
— Darren Rovell (@darrenrovell) February 9, 2018
Magic Receive: Second Least Favorable of MEM, CHA, and MIA 2018 2nd Round Pick
Suns Receive: Elfrid Payton
Orlando Magic: C+
The Magic’s new front office either doesn’t have a high opinion of Payton, or after talking with his representation has learned his desired next contract is in a salary range the Magic have no interest in paying. Either way, with only two months left on Payton’s contract ahead of him hitting restricted free agency, it makes some sense to take whatever you can get for him instead of losing him for nothing. There would have been some value to having his restricted rights as you could let the market decide if you want to keep him or not, but Orlando decided a halfway decent 2nd round pick was the more valuable commodity.
The pick Orlando is likely to receive is the Charlotte pick, which currently sits at 41 overall. If the new Orlando management had no intentions of signing Payton long-term no matter what, it was good for them to get anything of value. It would have been nice if they could have negotiated their way into getting the Suns’ own second rounder, but this is the new trade market we live in where teams are clutching to draft picks with the jaws of life.
Phoenix Suns: B-
I wish there was something between a C+ and a B-. The Suns paid a decent second rounder to get a look at a lottery point guard for two months and have his restricted rights ahead of free agency come July. In a vacuum that is pretty good.
In terms of roster construction I am not quite sure why the Suns targeted Payton. The future of the Suns already includes Josh Jackson, who is shooting 26.6% from three, 62% from the line, and has a 46.9% True Shooting percentage. Payton is another non-shooter. While he is hitting 37% from deep this year, it is on only 1.5 attempts per game, and his career average is 30%. He is also a career 61.5% free throw shooter. I don’t much see the wisdom in surrounding Booker on the wings with two non-shooters.
This shouldn’t really be factored into the trade grade but I just want to mention the fact that back in June the Suns passed on both De’Aaron Fox and Dennis Smith Jr. because they had Eric Bledsoe and instead selected Josh Jackson. Maybe they would have taken Josh Jackson even if they had moved on from Bledsoe at the 2017 trade deadline, but that was the proper time to make a Bledsoe trade and they were too naive to see a divorce creeping up on the horizon.
Three Team Trade
Knicks Receive: Emmanuel Mudiay
Nuggets Receive: Devin Harris, Worse of Knicks and Clippers 2018 2nd Round Pick
Mavericks Receive: Doug McDermott, Blazers 2018 2nd Round Pick
New York Knicks: D
What is this trade for the Knicks? While I wouldn’t exactly want to give McDermott his next contract, the Knicks already have Trey Burke, who is a better version of Mudiay. Burke’s career PER is 12.9 to Mudiay’s 10.7 and Burke’s career TS% of 48.3 is better than Mudiay’s 46.4, and both are terrible. Burke has actually accumulated a positive 6.6 Win Shares during his career, while Mudiay has been worth -1.5 in the same category.
Burke is a free agent after this season while Mudiay has one more year of team control but why would the Knicks even want to add him? It must be that final year of team control, as both Burke and Jack are free agents this summer, but in the short term I really hope this doesn’t diminish the minutes Ntilikina receives over the final two months of the season. The Knicks sent out a second rounder in addition to McDermott for that extra year of team control over Mudiay when the free agent market has proven to be tight for point guards and they could have picked up perhaps an even cheaper option in July without sacrificing draft capital. I guess Mudiay “has more upside” than anyone they would have found on the market though.
Denver Nuggets: B+
It looks like the Nuggets made this move to get off Mudiay’s salary for next season. Denver has two options regarding Nikola Jokic this coming offseason. They can either decline his team option, making him a restricted free agent, and have the right to match any offer he receives on the market (which they will) ultimately guaranteeing he stays in Denver long-term. Or they can accept the option and try to make another free agent move in 2018 by delaying Jokic’s big pay day another season. The downside to this is in 2019 Jokic would then be an unrestricted free agent and Denver will have no protection should he want to leave town.
Assuming the Nuggets don’t get greedy and max out Jokic this coming summer, they are looking at luxury tax consequences and getting off Mudiay’s roughly $4.3 million for next season is significant. They also ended up receiving a second round pick while dumping salary, and unless you’re trading with the Cavs, it’s supposed to work the other way around. Good job Denver.
Dallas Mavericks: B+
Seeing as how the Mavericks had four point guards on their roster and no wing depth this trade makes a ton of sense for them. McDermott brings shooting and size to their rotation and they obtain his restricted rights ahead of his pending free agency this summer. They also received a second round pick for flipping a superfluous 34 year old for a necessary 26 year old.
Bulls Receive: Willie Reed, Rights to Swap 2nd Round Picks in 2022
Pistons Receive: Jameer Nelson
Chicago Bulls: C+
Jameer Nelson was thrown into the Mirotic trade as salary filler so the fact the Bulls turned around and got anything for him is a win. This is literally next to nothing though as it is anyone’s guess as to which team will have the more valuable 2nd round pick come 2022. The Bulls basically did Nelson a favor as there would have been a logjam at guard ahead of him for the rest of the season and Nelson would have been aggravated about his limited role.
The Bulls plan to release Willie Reed.
Detroit Pistons: B-
I think the Pistons did well to bring in Nelson for essentially nothing. Stan Van Gundy has tried a few different hands at point guard and backup point guard ever since Reggie Jackson was injured, but this should solidify the position until Jackson’s return. Even upon his return, Nelson gives Van Gundy a veteran backup who has a key piece of the 2009 Finals team that SVG can trust.
Grizzlies Receive: Brice Johnson, Less Favorable of DET and CHI 2nd Round Pick in 2022
Pistons Receive: James Ennis III
Memphis Grizzlies: C
Brice Johnson has now been traded twice since being drafted in the first round in 2016. That’s not a good sign. But the Grizzlies did this for the pick. I can’t say I like the value. On the one hand it is better the Grizzlies got something instead of nothing for Ennis’ expiring contract, but 2022 is a ways away and we don’t know how valuable that pick will be. The Grizzlies aren’t interested in a teardown/rebuild and want to continue to get better and stay competitive. Taking on a 2nd round pick in 2022 isn’t worth it for me to give up Ennis’ bird rights and a chance to extend him this summer if the goal is to be as competitive as possible next year.
Detroit Pistons: B
Another good move for the Pistons. The Blake Griffin trade left them very thin on the wing, and bringing in Ennis certainly addresses that issue. Ennis is hitting 36% of his threes this season and is a career 37% shooter from deep. The Pistons are clearly chasing the playoffs this season and these two moves (Ennis and Nelson) help them in areas of need and they didn’t send out anything of substantial value.
Blazers Receive: Rights to Milovan Rakovic
Bulls Receive: Noah Vonleh, Cash Considerations
Portland Trail Blazers: A
The Blazers were going to find a way to dump salary and avoid the luxury tax. Most thought it would be a larger salary, such as Maurice Harkless or Meyers Leonard, that they would ship out, but moving Vonleh helps them save money without having to attach a valuable asset to strike a deal.
Chicago Bulls: B
The Bulls didn’t get a draft asset for taking on Vonleh, but they did receive cash considerations and this gets the team closer to the salary floor. The Bulls now have restricted rights on Vonleh ahead of his free agency. Vonleh is still only 22 years old so Chicago basically got paid to take a two month look at the former 9th pick of the draft.
Also of note, the Hawks failed and the Grizzlies didn’t do well.
When I previewed the deadline I had a trade where the Hawks sent out expiring money to the Blazers to acquire a draft pick from Portland to take on a bad contract. Portland opted for a cheaper option to dodge the tax, but the Hawks had a mixture of $15.1 million of expiring money they failed to move before the deadline. This is an absolute failure for the Hawks front office.
I’ve heard Ilyasova wouldn’t have waived his no trade clause as he didn’t want to lose his bird-rights, but between Belinelli and Delaney, the Hawks should have acted. There comes a point where you have to just accept pennies on the dollar because after a certain barrier your commodity no longer has any value. The trade deadline is that barrier and now the Hawks can’t trade those expiring contracts and the players will walk away for nothing. Even if the Hawks got a second round pick in the 50’s for Belinelli, it is better than getting nothing.
The Grizzlies did get something for Ennis, although it might have been wise to just hold onto his bird-rights (I don’t think there is value in the Hawks holding onto bird-rights for their guys as they are so far from being competitive and the Grizzlies want to win with Conley and Gasol), but didn’t move Tyreke Evans or Brandan Wright.
Zach Lowe reported: “Denver gave Memphis a choice of two offers for Tyreke Evans, per league sources: Emmanuel Mudiay/one 2nd-round pick OR an expiring contract/multiple second-round picks. MEM wanted more, and didn’t want any 18-19 salary.”
I can understand not wanting to take back Mudiay or any salary, but if Memphis could have gotten two seconds for Evans they should have done it. They wanted a first but no one out there was offering one. Memphis has decided they would rather keep Evans around and try to sign him to an extension this summer.
The other negative to keeping Evans is that he will help Memphis win games this season. Memphis does not want to tear it down or tank. They had no interest in any calls asking about Marc Gasol’s availability. So in management’s eyes this is the one year they will be spending in the lottery. So they should have maximized this “single opportunity” in the lottery, especially since this is the last year of the stacked lottery odds before the lottery reform kicks in in 2019.
The bottom 8 teams in the NBA are separated by a total of two games. That’s it, two games! If the Grizzlies win an extra game or two the rest of the year because of Evan’s play, that could be the difference between the 1st pick and the 8th pick. The Grizzlies actually have a positive net rating when Evans plays, at 0.8. That net rating craters to -9.2 when he sits (Evans MVP anyone?).
On the other hand, I can see why Memphis wants to keep him with their Mid-Level Exception after this season. I believe with a core of a healthy Conley, Gasol, and Evans can compete for a playoff spot. That is the Grizzlies goal, to make the playoffs. They are a team that believes they can’t rebuild in their market. That is the only saving grace, I suppose, for me to not label this an utter failure like the Hawks.
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