The draft is soon, so we are guaranteed some trades coming our way. Obviously, the sexiest type of NBA trades are salary dump trades. So let’s take a look at some salary dumping options teams should consider on Thursday night.
TRADE
Cavaliers Receive: 54th pick in 2018 Draft
Mavericks Receive: J.R. Smith, Cedi Osman
Cleveland probably doesn’t want to part with a young guy they seem to kind of like, (maybe, possibly?) but this serves two functions. If they’re trying to convince LeBron to stay they likely need to excommunicate J.R. Smith since LeBron had to point him in the direct of the basket during the Finals.
And if LeBron does leave, then Cleveland is probably going to want to get cheap and bad, and fast. While having a piece like Osman would be nice in a rebuild effort, I don’t think he is going to become a world beater you later regret having traded. Shedding both players makes the Cavs worse and less expensive.
Dallas has cap space for 2018 but the odds don’t seem in their favor to land a big time free agent, so they would be wise to recalibrate and attempt to strike in 2019. Smith’s deal only has $3.87 million guaranteed for the 2019-2020 season, so after a year the Mavs can stretch his remaining guaranteed money and open up the cap space they desire for the summer of 2019. They also get a free look at Osman.
TRADE
Wizards Receive: Al Jefferson, 23rd pick in 2018 NBA Draft
Pacers Receive: Marcin Gortat, 15th pick in 2018 NBA Draft
OR
Hornets Receive: Al Jefferson, 23rd pick in 2018 NBA Draft
Pacers Receive: Michael Kidd-Gilchrist/Marvin Williams, 11th pick in 2018 NBA Draft
The Pacers are holding a unicorn in Al Jefferson. No, he isn’t suddenly a 7-footer that can run, dunk, block shots, and shoot threes. However, he has a contractual loophole that makes him rather appealing.
When the new CBA was signed in 2016 a new rule was put into place regarded guaranteed salaries in trades. Basically, the days of trading non-guaranteed deals as salary filler that the receiving team would then cut were ended. Under the new rules, only the guaranteed money on a contract counts towards outgoing salary in a trade.
However, the rule isn’t retroactive. Therefore, since Al Jefferson signed his deal prior to the new CBA being agreed upon, the rule isn’t applicable to his salary. Jefferson’s salary for this upcoming season is $10 million, but only $4 million is guaranteed. Therefore, the Pacers can take on a decent undesirable salary, and the team receiving Jefferson can just stretch $4 million over three years to significantly lessen its payroll.
I would tread lightly as a dumping ground if I were the Pacers, because if they play their cards right they might actually be able to open up $34.975 million in cap space this summer. Thaddues Young is considering declining his $13.764 million player option. Now, he may be looking to decline it so he can resign with the Pacers for more guaranteed dollars over the next several years.
But, if he declines it and the two parties part ways, there is a path to significant cap space for Indiana. If the team renounces all of its cap holds then they are looking at $8.184 million in space, before Young theoretically declines his option. Add in the $13.764 million if Young leaves, and we’re up to $21.948 million in space.
Lance Stephenson has a non-guaranteed team option for $4.36 million next season, so if the team declines the option we are at $26.308 million. The Pacers could then decide to waive and stretch the $4 million guaranteed on Jefferson’s deal themselves, opening up another $8.66 million this season, getting us to a total of $34.975. This doesn’t account for the cap holds of their draft picks, but I’m just saying, LeBron’s max salary for this upcoming season, should he sign somewhere as a free agent, is $35.4 million. A Paul George return is also unlikely, but he would make this team quite formidable.
Chances are the Pacers won’t be a free agent destination, so it might be wise to utilize Jefferson’s unique situation to acquire an asset.
The Wizards are looking into the possibility of trading the 15th pick if a team is willing to take one of their expiring contracts off their hands. In my estimation this is horrifyingly short sighted, but they desperately want to avoid the tax. Gortat isn’t even a bad player, so he still has use for the Pacers and he shouldn’t be viewed as dead money.
It is known that the Hornets want to get off some of their long term deals and I’m sure the Pacers could pick between whether they want MKG or Mavin Williams. I have to imagine they would rather have MKG as he is younger and Indiana already has a log jam at Williams’ position. The only possible consideration is that Indiana needs more scoring, which MKG doesn’t provide, and Williams has become a reliable three point shooter.
In the past three seasons Williams has shot 38.8% on threes on 1037 attempts. It is said you need 750 three point attempts to find out the true shooting talent of a player, so Williams exceeds that sample size. The increase in three point shooting efficiency also directly coincides with an increase in free throw percentage the past three seasons, where Williams is 84.7% during that time span.
But obviously the big draw here for the Pacers is moving up in the draft. Since they most likely will not be a free agent destination it is a solid strategy to try to get up as high as they can in the draft and then swing for the fences in trying to land another star. Donovan Mitchell is the biggest exception to the rule you’re going to find, but that exact maneuvering by Utah is the thought process here.
TRADE
Nuggets Receive: 29th pick in 2018 NBA Draft
Nets Receive: Kenneth Faried, 14th pick in 2018 NBA Draft
The Nuggets are another team desperate to get off money due to tax concerns, and it seems they would like to move Faried. There is an idea out there that they are willing to send out the 14th pick to just dump Faried, but that is so short sighted and makes no sense to me. Faried only has one year left on his deal so Denver should look to dump a longer commitment if they’re willing to give up a lottery pick.
Of course, they shouldn’t be willing to give up this pick just to dump salary, but if they do want to move on from Faried it makes more sense to trade down than just dump the contract. Falling back 15 picks to dump Faried may seem rich, and it is, but not many teams have the space to just absorb Faried’s $13.7 million salary.
The Nets are one of those teams though, and since they finally have their pick in 2019 they should be in complete tank and asset building mode. Clearly they wouldn’t be getting a future pick for Faried here, but they get to jump up into the lottery to add another core piece to the next Nets playoff team, whenever that might actually happen.
TRADE
76ers Receive: Nothing
Hawks Receive: Jerryd Bayless, 38th pick in 2018 NBA Draft
In 2014 the Lakers acquired Jeremy Lin, a future first round pick and a second round pick, in exchange for the rights to Sergei Lushchuk, aka nothing. The point is the 6ers should ship off the 38th pick to dump Bayless’ contract.
Bayless is a tiny object in the way of the 6ers carving out enough cap space to offer LeBron his maximum salary. Bayless only has one year left on his deal, but his salary for this upcoming season is $8.575 million. If the 6ers renounce all of their cap holds they can open up $30.505 million in space. LeBron’s max contract, should he sign as a free agent, will have a starting salary of $35.4 million next season. See the issue?
The 6ers also have six (6!) draft picks in 2018, including four second rounders. Philadelphia just doesn’t have enough roster spots for all those picks, so I imagine they will all end up being used on European stashes and two-way guys.
Since Bayless only has $8.575 million left on his contract, shipping out the 26th pick is too rich to dump him, but a high second round should get the job done. Besides, with Embiid’s extension kicking in, the fact the team is going big game hunting in free agency, and they have to pay Simmons in two seasons, Philadelphia needs cost controlled players, such as people you draft at #26.
For Atlanta this is nothing more than acquiring an asset to take on salary that another team doesn’t want. I previously chastised Atlanta for a failed trade deadline when they didn’t take on any bad money in exchange for draft capital. They still have the potential to open up $29 million in space this summer to can act as a dumping ground and redeem themselves. Speaking of…
TRADE
Knicks or Grizzlies or Wizards Receive: Nothing
Hawks Receive: Joakim Noah, 9th pick in 2018 NBA Draft
OR
Hawks Receive: Chandler Parsons, 4th pick in the 2018 NBA Draft
OR
Hawks Receive: Ian Mahinmi, 15th pick in 2018 NBA Draft, Lottery Protected First Round Pick in 2020 NBA Draft
Crazy trades, right? I will continue to pound the drum over the fact that Atlanta should absolutely take on one of the toxic 2016 contracts in exchange for as much draft capital as they can extract from a willing trade partner.
Would any of these teams actually do these trades? Maybe not, especially Memphis since they have delusions of grandeur that they can sell off the 4th pick and Parsons and only drop a few draft slots. But I think the Wizards one is slightly realistic.
In regards to the Knicks and Grizzlies trades, I don’t know that those picks are worth taking on either $37.825 million or $49.209 million of sheer dead money. Even though the economics of pulling the trigger on eating nearly $50 million for the 4th pick might not be on my side, I might just swallow hard and do it since I think Luka Doncic and Trae Young are two of the three best players in the the draft. Ayton to Phoenix is a done deal, and all the reporting is that the Kings are going to take Bagley second, so the Hawks could walk away with both Doncic and Young.
Of course doing either trade would entirely reset the market for what it costs to dump dead salary. There is no precedent remotely similar for either of these deals, as this much dead money would command multiple first round picks to absorb. I don’t think I would do the Noah deal if I were Atlanta, since the odds of getting a franchise changer at #9 aren’t high enough. There does seem to be momentum growing, however, that Young is going to slide down the board. So if Young gets to #9..
The Hawks are also loaded with draft capital this year as is, as they own the 19th, 30th, and 33rd picks. They could package all three picks together to see how high up the board they could climb and then add that guy to a young core of Young, Prince, Doncic, and Collins.
I wouldn’t do the Knicks or Grizzlies trade if I was either of those teams. The Knicks should continue to eat Noah’s salary until it becomes necessary to find a way to clear it and the Grizzlies should not give up a chance at Doncic if he inexplicably falls to the 4th pick.
The Wizards might be motivated to do their deal, however. Mahinmi has $31.394 million left on his deal over the next two years, and the Washington is looking at some serious payroll issues. Both Gortat and Markieff Morris come off the books in the summer of 2019, so if the team can get off of Mahinmi’s contract, that is $36.1 million of salary coming off the cap sheet.
It doesn’t much help in terms of chasing free agents, as Washington would still only have about $15.85 million in cap space and a decision to make on Kelly Oubre. But if the team doesn’t move Mahinmi, then next summer the Wizards will essentially be right at the projected salary cap with only four contracts guaranteed to be on the books – Wall ($37.8 million), Porter ($27.250 million), Beal ($27.093 million), and Mahinmi ($15.450 million). This also really shows how badly they need cost controlled contracts, such as first round picks.
Washington has other options. They could look to dump either Morris or Gortat using #15 (both are expiring deals) and then stretch the remaining $15.45 million of Mahinmi next summer, incurring $5.15 million cap chargers over the next three seasons.
But the Wizards are already slightly into the tax for this upcoming season, and they haven’t filled out the roster yet. For a team desperate to avoid the tax – even though I would never give up two first rounders and teams are valuing first rounds more now than they ever have – Washington could look for a trade like this.
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