Here we go, the third part in our eight part series examining how every team did in the 2018 NFL Draft. If you haven’t checked out the previous parts make sure to do so. I’m not going to spend too much time discussing the first round picks here, as I already dedicated an entire article to that topic.
Atlanta Falcons
Round 1- 26 (26) – WR Calvin Ridley, Alabama
Round 2 – 26 (58) – CB Isaiah Oliver, Colorado
Round 3 – 26 (90) – DT Deadrin Senat, USF
Round 4 – 26 (126) – RB Ito Smith, Southern Miss
Round 6 – 20 (194) – WR Russell Gage, LSU
Round 6 – 26 (200) – LB Foye Oluokun, Yale
When Ridley fell to Atlanta, I imagine everyone in the war room just threw up their hands and said “fuck it,” and then decided to just draft him despite bigger needs elsewhere. The Falcons are signaling to the NFL, “we don’t think you can match up with all the weapons we have,” and they might just be right.
Dan Quinn will use a man defense if the situation calls for it, but he wants to be a Cover 3 team like his former team Seattle. Isaiah Oliver fits much better in a zone defense, as he doesn’t have the most fluid ankles to stick in man coverage. Many people thought if the Seahawks went corner in round one that Oliver could be a target, since he fits the scheme so well. Well, the Falcons run that scheme. And notice I mentioned the possibility of Oliver going in round one, but the Falcons got him at #58. Great value.
There were many a mock draft where I had the Falcons trade up for Da’Ron Payne. My rationale was the team let Dontari Poe leave in free agency, and they didn’t want to watch their run defense regress to where it was before Poe’s arrival. So it is no surprise the team took someone like Deadrin Senat. Senat is an excellent run stuffer who fits the range and hits a need.
I don’t really like the Ito Smith pick. I understand the Falcons are bracing themselves for when Tevin Coleman leaves in free agency after the 2018 season, but Atlanta could have brought in his replacement in next year’s draft. Atlanta is a true Super Bowl contender and I would have rather seen this pick go to someone that could help contribute this season.
Once again, did the Falcons really need Russell Gage? I understand this late in the draft you just take guys you like, but they couldn’t find anyone they like at a position where they could better contribute?
The Falcons drafted Foye Oluokun, and he went to Yale. I am always pro drafting Yale guys.
Overview:
The Falcons did well with their first three picks, I don’t like the next two picks, and the last pick probably won’t really matter. I am surprised the Falcons didn’t trade out of #26, in either direction, as they are normally aggressive but could have looked to move down to add some more selections. They probably weren’t expecting Ridley to ever reach them however, so when he did they pounced.
Overall Grade: B
Carolina Panthers
Round 1 – 24 (24) – WR D.J. Moore, Maryland
Round 2 – 23 (55) – CB Donte Jackson, LSU
Round 3 – 21 (85) – S Rashaan Gaulden, Tennessee
Round 4 – 1 (101) – TE Ian Thomas, Indiana
Round 4 – 36 (136) – Edge Marquis Haynes, Ole Miss
Round 5 – 24 (161) – LB Jermaine Carter, Maryland
Round 7 – 16 (234) – LB Andre Smith, North Carolina
Round 7 – 24 (242) – DT Kendrick Norton, Miami
The Panthers had their pick of any receiver and they opted for D.J. Moore. Apparently it was due, in part, to a single play where he juked/out ran the entire Wisconsin defense.
Carolina addressed their secondary with their next two picks, taking CB Donte Jackson and S Rashaan Gaulden. The Panthers got good value on Jackson. Some thought he could sneak into the end of the first round, and I’ve heard people say he is the best nickel corner in the draft. I’m not sure if the Panthers plan to play him at nickel or the outside, but either way this is a good pick.
I don’t like the Gaulden pick nearly as much. There are multiple other safeties I would have taken over Gaulden and also think this was a significant reach.
Ian Thomas is an intriguing tight end and with Ed Dickson gone and Greg Olsen at age 33, the Panthers needed a young tight end in the pipeline. This pick was acquired in a trade with the Packers.
It’s debatable if Marquis Haynes had a draftable grade. An undersized end in college, which isn’t a huge deal in today’s NFL, Haynes will have to transition to linebacker, but his short shuttle time (4.45) is a red flag.
Apparently the Panthers are very concerned with their depth at linebacker as they spent their next two picks on Jermaine Carter and Andre Smith. Regarding the picks, I think Carter was a massive reach but Smith fits the range. Doubling down on off ball linebackers makes me wonder if the Panthers are at least somewhat concerned about Luke Kuechly’s long term health given how many concussions he has sustained in his career.
The Panthers took a flier on Kendrick Norton to be a disruptive force on the interior of their defensive line.
Overview:
The Panthers hand picked their favorite receiver in the draft, and then followed that up with a good value at corner. They addressed needs throughout the process but had three bad reaches. They did get the better end of a trade with the Packers. They did not, however, address their offensive line at all in this draft, which, given Cam Newton’s shoulder and the hits he has piled up in his career, seems like a dereliction of duty.
Overall Grade: C
New Orleans Saints
Round 1 – 14 (14) – Edge Marcus Davenport, UTSA
Round 3 – 27 (91) – WR Tre’Quan Smith, UCF
Round 4 – 27 (127) – OT Rick Leonard, Florida State
Round 5 – 27 (164) – S Natrell Jamerson, Wisconsin
Round 6 – 15 (189) – CB Kamrin Moore, Boston College
Round 6 – 27 (201) – RB Boston Scott, Louisiana Tech
Round 7 – 27 (245) – C Will Clapp, LSU
I already talked about the Davenport pick and trade, and I know I said I wasn’t going to go too in depth about first round picks since I already did that in a different article. I just really want to add more context to the Davenport trade though.
On draft night I said 11-5 in 2018 and the 25th pick in 2019 was a fair projection for the Saints. By this math, the Packers profited 12.7 in their trade with the Saints according to the Chase Stuart draft chart. When the Packers traded back up from #27 (the Saints original pick) to #18, they gave up a net negative of 4.4 points of draft capital. So basically, the Saints paid 8.3 points more than the Packers did in their respective trades up, and the Saints climbed only four spots higher. The difference in draft capital between the 14th and 18th picks is only 1.6.
I hate trading up but there are two exceptions: If you are getting your franchise quarterback, or if you really are one player away (and even then it’s dicey). I do believe the Saints are only one player away. In 2017 they finished 6th in point differential, 3rd in FPI, 1st in DVOA, had 13.4 Estimated Wins, and the aforementioned 11.1 Pythagorean Win Expectation.
The Saints are true Super Bowl contenders and they went up to get a pass rusher that reminds the brass of the organization of DeMarcus Ware, in an effort to maximize the Drew Brees window.
The history of giving up so much draft capital to move up for a non-quarterback is really hit or miss.
In 2003 the Jets gave up #13 and #22 to get up to #4 to select Dwayne Robertson. The Jets netted a negative 7.4 points of draft capital and Robertson busted.
In 2007 the 49ers traded away #110 and what became the 7th pick of the 2008 draft to select Joe Staley at #28 in 2007. The 9ers netted a negative 13.5 points of draft capital since the future first they shipped out ended up being so high. They did land a franchise left tackle, so it is up for debate if the 9ers, who at the time were a bad team, would have rather had that 4th round pick and the 7th pick the following year.
In 2010 the Chargers gave up #28, #40, #126, and Tim Dobbins for #12, #110, and #173. The Dolphins only netted a negative 3 points of draft capital, plus Dobbins, but drafted Ryan Matthews. I have to imagine they would would like to undo that trade.
I never realized just how much the Falcons surrendered for Julio Jones in 2011 until I did this exercise. I knew they gave up a lot, but I hadn’t done the draft capital math. The Browns sent the Falcons the 6th pick in 2011, which Atlanta used on Julio Jones, and Cleveland ended up with picks across the 2011 and 2012 draft, that were numbers 22, 26, 59, 118, and 124. The Falcons netted a massive negative of 22.3 points of draft capital in this deal. That is a top-of-the-draft quarterback profit for the Browns. I’m sure the Falcons are happy with their end of the bargain though.
Also in 2011, the Saints sent the 56th pick and what became the 27th pick in 2012 to the Patriots for the 28th pick and then selected Mark Ingram. The Saints netted a negative 9.2 points of draft capital in the deal. The past four years Ingram has been solid or really good, but keep in mind for the first three seasons of his career he was a disappointment. The post Super Bowl Saints teams were doomed by their defenses for years so you have to wonder if the Saints would have rather taken two shots on defensive talent with their two original picks, instead of consolidating them into Mark Ingram. Consider that the Patriots used the pick acquired in the Ingram trade to go get Chandler Jones the following year. The Saints proved last year with Alvin Kamara that you don’t need to be aggressive in the first round with a running back.
In 2013 the Dolphins actually paid a small price to move up to the 3rd pick in a swap with the Raiders. Miami sent out #12 and #42 to move up to #3. The Dolphins netted a negative 2 points of draft capital in the trade. The reason Oakland sold the pick so cheap is because the 2013 draft class was terrible. Case in point, the Dolphins used the 3rd pick to select Dion Jordan, and he was a massive bust.
In 2014 the Browns once again sold off a top pick to a team desperate to draft an impact receiver. The Bills gave up, over the 2014 and 2015 drafts, picks 9, 19, and 115 to get up to the 4th pick to select Sammy Watkins. The Bills netted a negative 15 points of draft capital in the trade. I am the biggest Watkins fans you will meet and in no way consider him a bust, but I have to imagine the Bills would just rather had kept their picks. Especially considering they could have just drafted Odell Beckham at #9 had they stayed put.
The Saints are clearly looking to their division rivals in Atlanta for how they hope this trade works out. The thing is, Julio Jones was a much better prospect than Davenport. Time will tell if Davenport pans out as a player or not, but the Saints risked a lot to make this move.
Tre’Quan Smith is a receiver that I really like. I think he can immediately contribute to this offense.
The Saints desperately needed depth at offensive tackle and took Rick Leonard in the 4th. I’m all for investing in protecting Drew Brees, but I don’t think Leonard had a draftable grade, so this is a massive reach.
Natrell Jamerson is a fantastic value for the Saints in the 5th round.
Kamrin Moore is an intriguing cover corner to take a shot on in the 6th round.
I wonder if the Saints knew Ingram was going to get suspended when they spent a 6th round pick on Boston Scott.
The Saints tapped into the local pipeline to bring in depth on the offensive line with Will Clapp.
Overview:
The Saints made an aggressive, leverage-the-future, one-player-away trade to go get a guy they think is going to be DeMarcus Ware, but is currently really raw. They got good value/talent with Smith, Jamerson, and Moore, and completely blew their 4th round pick.
Overall Grade: C
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Round 1 – 12 (12) – DT Vita Vea, Washington
Round 2 – 6 (38) – RB Ronald Jones, USC
Round 2 – 21 (53) – CB M.J. Stewart, North Carolina
Round 2 – 31 (63) – CB Carlton Davis, Auburn
Round 3 – 30 (94) – G Alex Cappa, Humboldt State
Round 4 – 17 (117) – S Jordan Whitehead, Pittsburgh
Round 5 – 7 (144) – WR Justin Watson, Pennsylvania
Round 6 – 28 (202) – LB Jack Cichy, Wisconsin
The Buccaneers were the beneficiary of the Broncos’ obsession with Bradley Chubb, and the Colts’ obsession with Quenton Nelson. As a result, Buffalo couldn’t get a deal done with the two teams ahead of the Bucs, so Tampa moved back five spots and picked up two 2nd rounders in the process.
The Bucs opted to address the fact they had the worst running back depth chart in the NFL and took Ronald Jones at the top of the second round. Jones doesn’t offer much as a receiver, but he is a very talented and natural runner between the tackles.
The Bucs used their other two second round picks on a pair of corners, and even traded down from the latter pick in a deal with the Patriots. New England surrendered the 117th selection in order to move up seven spots from #63 to #56. The Bucs profited 3.5 points of draft capital in the trade, a very un-Belichickian move.
The Bucs brought in M.J. Stewart and Carlton Davis. Both corners had more hype earlier on in the process, especially Davis who some thought would go atop round two. Corner is a massive need for the Buccaneers as Brent Grimes cannot play forever and Vernon Hargreaves has struggled in his first two seasons.
The Buccaneers are also trapped in a division where in the past two off-seasons the Panthers have loaded up on speed weapons, the Falcons have one of the best wide receiver trios in the league, and the Saints have a passing attack led by Drew Brees.
The Bucs traded up in a deal with the Vikings to get into the 3rd round, and while I don’t like trading up, Tampa didn’t surrender much, and I can understand the desire to better protect Winston by selecting Alex Cappa.
I think Jordan Whitehead was a bit of a reach where the Buccaneers took him and there were a few safeties I would have selected over him. I do give the Bucs credit for trying to upgrade their secondary though.
I also think Watson was a bit of a reach, and the Bucs are basically set at receiver so I don’t really understand this pick.
I think Jack Cichy is a good value where the Bucs got him as he could have gone 30 picks or so higher.
Overview:
The Buccaneers started off with a good trade and then selected a massive run stuffer that has rare athleticism and can put some pressure on the quarterback. Tampa prioritized upgrading its secondary and brought in one guy to help along the offensive interior. They got some solid value in with their late round picks as well, although I don’t understand why they decided to bring in a receiver. They also walk away with a plug and play starting running back.
Before the draft, Tampa traded its 3rd round pick to acquire JPP, so he has to factor into the big picture. I’m not a huge fan of the trade, but the Bucs are part the new trend around the league; load up on veteran talent while your quarterback is on his rookie contract. Having a rookie scale starting quarterback is basically the biggest cheat code in the NFL right now.
Overall Grade: A-
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