The NFL draft is a weird sequence of events that create ripple affects that we’ll never know existed. One team selecting this player over that player can alter how an entire stretch of picks pans out. There’s no way of knowing what could have been but the point to this exercise is to talk through what each team would do in different situations.
#1 Tennessee Titans
Never say never and therefore there is a chance the Titans just stick here and take Abdul Carter, but the writing seems to be on the wall that Cam Ward will be the #1 pick, team TBD. Adam Schefter reported that Tennessee has become “increasingly impressed” with Ward but they are “still willing to listen to offers for the first pick, [yet] it will now take an even stronger package for the Titans to move down.”
Out of desperation the Browns or Giants may end up paying the piper, but the Titans seem to want a bounty no one is willing to pay. This is quite similar to 10 years ago in 2015 when Tennessee was “open for business” at 2 but their asking price was immense. On the pre-draft coverage right before Round 1 the on-the-scene reporting was that the Titans wanted “the stars, the moon, and the sun,” with the interpretation from the league being the team really wanted to just take their quarterback and be done with it.
Again, never say never. If the Browns or Giants offer an RGIII package Tennessee will take it. That likely won’t happen. But what would a fair trade be given the history of QB trades at the top of the draft? Sticking with trades where the team moving up moved into the top 3, here is every trade dating back to 2004 and the value according to the Chase Stuart draft chart:
-In 2004 to go from #4 to #1 in order to select Eli Manning, the Giants sent picks 4, 11 (2005), 65, and 141 for 1. The Chargers profited 21.6 points of draft capital. The 8th pick of the draft is worth 21.4 points.
-In 2012 to go from #6 to #2 in order to select RGIII, the Browns sent picks 6, 2 (2013), 22 (2014), and 36 for 2. The Rams profited 49.9 points. The 1st pick is worth 34.6 points and the 21st pick is worth 15.2.
-In 2016 to go from #15 to 1# in order to select Jared Goff, the Rams sent 15, 5 (2017), 43, 45, 76, and 100 (2017) for 1, 113, and 117. The Titans profited 34.3 points. The first pick is worth 34.6.
-In 2016 to go from #8 to #2 in order to select Carson Wentz, the Eagles sent 8, 12 (2017), 64 (2018), 77, and 100 for 2 and 139. The Browns profited 27.1 points. The third pick is worth 27.6.
-In 2017 to go from #3 to #2 in order to select Mitch Trubisky, the Bears sent 3, 67, 70 (2018), and 111 for #2. The 9ers profited 17.3 points. The 15th pick is worth 17.4.
-In 2018 to go from #6 to #3 in order to select Sam Darnold, the Jets sent 6, 34 (2019), 37, and 49 for #3. The Colts profited 29.1 points. The 2nd pick is worth 30.2.
-In 2021 to go from #12 to #3 in order to select Trey Lance, the 49ers sent 12, 29 (2022), 29 (2023) an 102 doe #3. The Dolphins profited 22.7 points. The 6th pick is worth 23.2 and the 7th pick is worth 22.2.
-In 2023 to go from #9 to #1 in order to select Bryce Young, the Panthers sent 9, 1 (2024), 39 (2025), 61, and DJ Moore. The Bears profited 40.3 points plus DJ Moore. The 1st pick is worth 34.6 points and the 94th pick 5.7.
The two major factors in these trades are distance traveled and prospect quality. It’s no coincidence the cheapest deal is the Trubisky trade. Chicago moved up one spot to select a “poor” (relative to top 3 picks) quarterback prospect. Scouts Inc. is not the end all, be all, but just for a simple comparison here is the grade each one of these prospects received from them, as well as Cam Ward’s:
-Eli Manning 98
-RGIII 97
-Jared Goff 91
-Carson Wentz 91
-Mitch Trubisky 89
-Sam Darnold 94
-Trey Lance 92
-Bryce Young 96
-Cam Ward 92
A fair market trade with either the Giants or Browns would probably land the Titans something close to the Sam Darnold and Carson Wentz deals. The RGIII and Bryce Young trades are so preposterous they’re not really going to instruct the decision the Tennessee braintrust is currently mulling over. The Trubisky trade is clearly not enough while the Rams went flying up the board for Jared Goff and paid for it.
Oddly enough, the closet comparison we have for a team trading up to #1 from not that far away is the Giants going from 4 to 1 to select Eli. However, inflation comes for all things, including quarterback trades, and Tennessee would hard decline the Giants in 2025 if they came with a carbon copy of the 2004 trade (other than 3 vs 4).
The first pick is worth 34.6 points and the average value of the 2nd and 3rd picks is 28.9. Falling down from 1 to 2 or 3 puts the Titans “5.3” points in the hole, meaning the Giants or Browns need to come up with roughly 32-35 points worth of draft capital to offer Tennessee a fair market deal. The Browns and Giants have the first two picks of the second round, respectively, which have an average value of 12.2. Still needing to find another ~20-23 points, each team’s 2026 first rounder clearly will be included. (Arbitrarily) projecting that 2026 first to be the 10th pick (19.9 points) we’re at a fair deal but I wouldn’t be surprised if the Titans asked for a sweetener since they’re forfeiting their own opportunity to draft a quarterback. Inconveniently neither the Browns nor the Giants have their 5th rounder, which either necessitates the inclusion of their 2025 4th rounder (5 points, so now we’re overpaying a bit) or a 2026 3rd or 4th (the 3rd is a big overpay).
TL;DR – A fair deal would have the Browns or Giants send the 2nd or 3rd pick, plus their 2025 second, their 2026 first, and a Day 3 pick to Tennessee for #1. I have a feeling the Giants especially would be open to pulling the trigger on that deal. However, given that the last two trades of this kind netted three firsts and a third (Trey Lance) and two firsts, two seconds, and DJ Moore (Bryce Young), I suspect Tennessee is asking for three firsts and a 2025 third, or perhaps even three firsts and a second with a willingness to be flexible on what year the second is handed over. And there lies the impasse. 10 years later the Titans want “the stars, the moon, and the sun” for their draft pick, with the underlying message being that they want to just take their quarterback and be done with it.
Cam Ward should probably start looking at real estate in Nashvhille. If for some reason he ends up a Giant, it’s because Daboll and Schoen went full send knowing if they doesn’t work out it’s not their mess to clean up. The trade package will be in the RGIII, Bryce Young realm of absurd. Given the Wilson and Winston signings, the odds they go YOLO are slim.
But never say never.
#2 Cleveland Browns
In the unlikely event the Titans draft Abdul Carter #1, I think the Browns would sprint in their card with Cam Ward’s name on it. But in the event Ward goes one as expected, Cleveland will be left to choose their preference between Carter and Travis Hunter, or Shedeur Sanders.
The arguments for Carter and Hunter are obvious. They’re the two best players in the draft, each a true blue chip prospect. Pairing Carter with Myles Garrett may immediately give the Browns the best pass rushing duo in the NFL. It’s at least a conversation. Hunter, meanwhile, can give a major boost to the receiver group while rounding out your cornerbacks for 20-25 snaps per game in obvious passing situations.
Then there’s Shedeur. Kevin Stefanski has previously succeed with pocket quarterbacks that don’t possess a big arm or elite mobility. He was in Minnesota with Kirk Cousins. He has inexplicably been able to win games in Cleveland with Case Keenum, PJ Walker, and the corpse of Joe Flacco. Shedeur, presumably, would be able to operate the system enough to put the team in position to win games.
And then there’s the “what other recourse do they have?” question. This team is fucked for the duration of the Watson contract. It’s nearly impossible they’ll be competitive. They can’t sign or trade for a veteran quarterback that makes any type of market value salary. Their only option is the draft, and if they like someone they have to take him at 2 otherwise they risk losing him. The Browns got “lucky” in 2007, 2012, and 2014 when they used their top 10 pick on not a quarterback (Joe Thomas, Trent Richardson, Justin Gilbert) to then move up to the 22nd pick and take a quarterback (Brady Quinn, Brandon Weeden, Johnny Manziel). (No seriously, they took a quarterback with the 22nd pick in all three of those drafts). Maybe it’s destined to happen again. Maybe the Browns take Carter (or Hunter) only to trade up with the Chargers (I’d say the Vikings are the more likely trade partner this year, more on that later) and get a falling Shedeur or just shoot their shot on Dart or Shough. But maybe they can’t stomach the risk involved in losing Shedeur and just go full YOLO if they think their jobs are on the line.
#3 New York Giants
I don’t think there’s a version of the multiverse where Cam Ward is available at #3, but that also may demonstrate my complete lack of understanding on how the multiverse works. Anyway, the Giants are in a similar situation as the Browns. If Cleveland takes Shedeur then New York is left to choose their preference between Carter and Hunter. If the Browns take one of Carter or Hunter, then the Giants are left to decide between the remainder and Shedeur.
If Shedeur goes two I would guess New York would opt for Hunter over Carter. I of course have no clue what the Giants’ board looks like so this is more a matter of marrying up need and potential for immediate impact from a braintrust desperate to keep their jobs. New York already has Brian Burns and Kayvon Thibodeaux as edge rushers, and while Thibodeaux hasn’t lived up to being the number 5 pick of the draft, he’s a good secondary rusher for any roster. And yes, the Giants signed Paulson Adebo, took Deonte Banks in the first round in 2023, and re-signed Darius Slayton, but none of these moves should prevent them from taking Hunter. Hunter is an immediate upgrade over all three, depending on where New York decides to deploy him full-time. I’d venture to guess for the Giants he’d be a full-time receiver, creating a dynamic duo with Nabers, and moonlight as a corner on obvious passing downs.
Of course, adding Carter to Burns and Thibodeaux would immediately create the best pass rushing trio the NFL? It’s a real argument. If Shedeur is off the board, or even if the Browns go with Hunter at 2, you can’t really fault the Giants if they elect to take Carter over either Hunter or Shedeur. There’s two true blue chip prospects in this draft and to say “we’re just going to take the blue chip we like” at #3 is a reasonable decision.
But the real conversation is at quarterback and whether or not to take Shedeur. The argument for it is if you like a quarterback enough you simply take him. Last year both the Falcons and Broncos took second round prospects in the top 12 because they just liked them and refused to risk losing them if they were to wait to trade back into the later portion of round 1. I’d venture to guess both of those teams are happy with their decision in hindsight. Daboll and Schoen are also liable to act in their own self interest with this pick, and what better way to keep your job than to have a rookie quarterback show promise. Even if the season begins poorly with Wilson and Winston, if Sanders comes in and shows potential, even in a 5 win season, Daboll and Schoen can go to ownership and say “look. we have the guy, and we’re the best people to develop him, don’t pull the plug on the kid too early.”
The problem is, I’m not sure there’s evidence that this ever works. We always hear about regimes on the hot seat taking quarterbacks in the first round to extend their own shelf life, but does it ever play out that way? Dating back to 2016, here are the coaches/regimes that took a first round quarterback and their subsequent fate:
-2016 the Rams select Jared Goff. Jeff Fisher is fired after a 4-9 start.
-2017 the Bears select Mitch Trubisky. John Fox is fired after a 5-11 season.
-2018 the Browns select Baker Mayfield. Hue Jackson is fired after a 2-5-1 start.
-2018 the Jets select Sam Darnold. Todd Bowles is fired after a 4-12 season.
-2018 the Cardinals select Josh Rosen. Steve Wilks is fired after a 3-13 season.
-2019 the Giants select Daniel Jones. Pat Shurmur is fired after a 4-12 season.
-2019 Washington selects Dawyne Haskins. Jay Gruden is fired after an 0-5 start.
-2020 the Chargers select Justin Herbert. Anthony Lynn was fired after a 7-9 season.
-2021 the Bears select Justin Fields. Matt Nagy was fired after a 6-11 season.
-2023 the Panthers select Bryce Young. Frank Reich was fired after a 1-10 start to his first season.
-2024 the Bears select Caleb Williams. Matt Eberflus was fired after a 4-8 start.
This not the holy grail of job security that always becomes a talking point in this situation. Let’s say the Browns take Carter at 2 (who is currently the favorite to be the second pick on DraftKings, if you’re into that sort of thing). If Daboll and Schoen want to keep their jobs then they need to win. It’s that simple. Signing Wilson and Winston isn’t some perfect solution, but it allows the Giants not to act out of desperation in the draft. If New York wants to maximize it’s ability to win games in 2025, then they should take Travis Hunter, someone who may provide more on field impact than any non-quarterback in the history of modern football. Putting Wilson, Nabers, and Hunter out there on offense with Hunter giving you 20-25 snaps on passing downs maximizes the Giants’ ability to win games in 2025. It makes so much more sense than mega-reaching on Shedeur. If they still want a young quarterback to turn to midseason they can move up from the top of the second round to target Dart or Shough. This avenue makes so much more sense than taking Shedeur at 3.
However, maybe New York is just truly in love with Shedeur. According the ESPN’s recent edition of their insiders emptying their notebooks, Matt Miller reported that “the Giants loving Shedeur Sanders is the worst kept secret in the NFL right now.” Maybe John Mara himself will come down and say “no, imagine the jersey sales” and demand Shedeur is the pick. Who knows. We’ll find out soon enough, but passing on Travis Hunter for Shedeur makes no sense.
#4 New England Patriots
If two quarterbacks go ahead of New England then #math dictates that one of Carter or Hunter will be here. In that scenario this pick should take about two nanoseconds to be handed in.
In the much more probable situation that the first three picks are Ward-Carter-Hunter in some order, the Patriots have a decision to make. All eyes will immediately be on the two “tackles” Will Campbell and Armand Membou. Vrabel glowed about both during the owners meeting. He also admitted the team views Campbell as a tackle, not a guard, and that you don’t need to project him as a tackle because you can just watch the film and see him playing as a left tackle against talented pass rushers that are going to get drafted. He also mentioned that while Membou played right tackle in college there’s historical precedent for a player playing one side in college and then switching when getting to the pros.
If I had to guess who Vrabel prefers between the two I’d say it’s Campbell. Campbell is nastier and more punishing in the run game, an attitude I think Vrabel will gravitate toward. Plus, as coach said, there’s no projecting Campbell to left tackle as he played it in college. I’m sure Vrabel thinks Membou is talented, but it is a projection to put him on the left side.
I don’t believe any non-Travis Hunter receiver will be in consideration if the Patriots stay at #4. That said, I think their preference is to trade down and acquire more picks, unless Carter or Hunter is available. I don’t expect a lot of movement this year in general as there’s no real advantage to trading up. The quality of prospect you’re getting from 4-11 isn’t all that different, and neither is 12-40.
However, there’s two teams I think would be the most likely to move up to 4, even if the odds of it happening are slim to none. The first team I believe could trade up is the Saints. Mickey Loomis has demonstrated for over 20 years that he does not value stockpiling picks, wants to just go get his favorite dude, and will light future assets on fire to do so if necessary. If the Saints fall in love with one of the tackles, Jeanty, or Graham, it just wouldn’t shock me to see them leapfrog the Jaguars.
The other team is the Bears, specifically for Jeanty. Chicago’s roster sort of doesn’t really have needs. Sure, they can add talent and fill out the roster more, but other than linebacker they have talent at every position. They are also armed with an extra second rounder from the Bryce Young trade, they can move on from Swift after 2025, and can you imagine Jeanty in Johnson’s offense? There’s a reasonable case to be made that the Jaguars, Raiders, and Jets could select Jeanty so if the Bears want him they’d need to leapfrog them all. The Patriots may even happily take the lesser of the two seconds (41 vs 39) since they’d be so glad just to get another premium pick.
If the Patriots do fall back to 9 or 10, the obvious targets would still be Campbell or Membou if one falls. If both are gone, I think Tyler Warren would become the primary target. Tight end isn’t a glaring position of weakness, but neither Hunter Henry nor Austin Hooper should prevent New England from taking Warren if they love him that much. McDaniels may see too much Gronk potential to let the team pass up this opportunity. If it isn’t Warren, or he’s off the board, Kelvin Banks or Tet McMillan would be next up.
For the record, I don’t think it’s *impossible* the Patriots take Graham at 4 if Hunter and Carter are both off the board. They paid Milton Williams a billion dollars and have Christian Barmore, but blood clots are scary and even at full health the three of them would make a terrorizing front if New England believes they can get all of them on the field at the same time.
#5 Jacksonville Jaguars
There doesn’t appear to be a universe in which either Hunter or Carter are available at 5. Ward, Hunter, and Carter will be three of the first four picks. That leaves the Jaguars to draft one of Mason Graham, Will Campbell, Armand Membou, or Ashton Jeanty.
Graham makes the most sense. He’s the third or fourth best player in this draft, depending on if you’re willing to put a running back third, and hits a huge need. The Jaguars defense last year was terrible. Graham may have shorter arms than you’d like and weigh less than ideal, but Rams import James Gladstone figures to be willing to overlook those shortcomings after watching Aaron Donald dominate.
Of course, they could just opt to protect Trevor Lawrence. Baalke extended Walker Little on his way out the door and the team just drafted Anton Harrison in the first round in 2023, but Coen and Gladstone have nothing to do with either of them. There is also the possibility they draft Will Campbell to immediately play him at guard and then in 2026 kick him out to tackle if Harrison is still struggling.
Then there’s Jeanty. Every team from the Jaguars to the 9ers is going to have to decide if they’re willing to draft an inferior player ahead of someone they have rated (presumably) significantly higher. If they gap isn’t that large, for example Graham vs. Jeanty, it’s easier to swallow passing on Jeanty. But the further down the board we get, are teams going to continue to take someone they have graded much lower over a running back, off the heels of the return of the running back season? Coen and Gladstone have no loyalty to Etienne, who is entering a contract season.
#6 Las Vegas Raiders
This is where I think the Jeanty thing begins to get really interesting. I think the Jaguars are very likely to take Mason Graham, leaving the Raiders to decide between Jeanty, one of the offensive tackles, or any defensive player. You can add McMillan to the list given the glaring need at receiver but I don’t think McMillan finds his way into the top 10. Also if Graham is here he will be a top consideration.
The arguments for why the Raiders would pull the trigger on Jeanty are clear. Pete Carroll wants to run the ball and play defense. Jeanty will be the highest graded player on their board when they’re on the clock. Again, how big is the gap between Jeanty and their next highest graded player while they’re deciding here?
The other element is how deep this running back draft class is, and it’s historically deep. Depending on how you ask there’s 30-33 draftable running backs, which is a bonkers number. In 2017, a loaded running back draft, 8 backs went in the first three rounds; Leonard Fournette, Christian McCaffrey, Dalvin Cook, Joe Mixon, Alvin Kamara, Kareem Hunt, D’Onta Foreman, and James Conner. I think we could see 10 running backs (or more) go in the first three rounds in 2025. And even if you wait until Day 3, there’s another ~20 for you to choose from.
So why spend a top 10 pick on Jeanty? Would you rather have Will Campbell and TreVeyon Henderson, or Jeanty and Josh Conerly, if Conerly even falls to you? Would you rather have Will Johnson and Quinshon Judkins, or Jeanty and Trey Amos? It’s also not a mistake I’m using the two Ohio State running backs for these pairings. Given the hiring of Chip Kelly as offensive coordinator, and the state of this roster, would it not make more sense to address a different need at a higher position of value to then come back to running back later, especially since John Spytek was just involved in finding Bucky Irving in the 4th round?
Will Campbell and Membou can help improve the right side of the offensive line. It helps keep Geno clean and open up running lanes for the running back they take on Day 2. But if Pete Carroll wants to run the ball and play defense he needs an actual defense in order to accomplish the second part. Vegas has an interesting front with Crosby, Wilkins, and Koonce, but beyond that what is there? The entire secondary is a disaster. The problem is, is there a defensive player available that the team will think is worthy of the selection?
Will Johnson seems to have a mixed view of him in the league. Who knows what Vegas thinks, but it’s possible when comparing him to Jeanty they think Jeanty is just cleaner and safer. Perhaps they love Jahdae Barron given his versatility. He doesn’t have the length you’d normally associate with a Seattle corner but remember, Carroll and company took Devon Witherspoon with the 5th pick in 2023. I don’t know that Pete is going to think Malaki Starks has the range to be a true single-high safety, but if they just want a good football player Starks could be an option.
I would have included Jihaad Campbell in the list of possibilities here if it weren’t for his shoulder. He had surgery after the combine to repair a torn labrum, a recovery timeline that usually takes 6-8 months. It’s short sighted, yes, but the Raiders apparently want to immediately start competing (they hired a coach in his 70s and traded for, and then extended, a 35 year old quarterback) so having the 6th pick of the draft miss rookie camp, OTAs, training camp, and the first X weeks of the season may not be on their to-do list.
#7 New York Jets
If you look at how the Jets approached free agency, it’s nearly identical to what the Lions did in 2021 when Dan Campbell and Aaron Glenn were brought into the fold. They didn’t chase big name free agents. Instead, they opted for cheaper or non-minimum guys that fit a particular profile: younger players (9 of their 13 notable free agents are 27 or under, and none are 30+) that are coming off down seasons but have previously flashes in their careers and/or were high draft picks (headlined by Fields).
And then what did the Lions do in 2021 with the 7th pick of the draft? They selected offensive tackle Penei Sewell despite already having a left tackle in place. They put Sewell on the right side where he has been a dominant player ever since. For years the Lions’ super power has been elite-elite offensive line play. Now, after a prolonged period of horrendous play up front for the Jets, they’re a right tackle away from having 5 good-to-great offensive lineman (assuming progression from Olu). Drafting Membou (or Will Campbell) completes what seems to be a decade long project to turn this offensive line around. It also mirrors what Detroit did in the first year of their new regime.
There’s also Tyler Warren. Warren splits the difference between selecting an offensive lineman or a receiving weapon. He can help in both departments. For a team devoid of receiving weapons outside of Wilson, and an offense that figures to run a lot of designed quarterback runs, Warren provides the Jets improvement in two places as one person.
I also have a theory for this draft that given the “eye of the beholder” type vibe surrounding pretty much every non-quarterback after Carter and Hunter, teams are going to opt for what they view as safer and cleaner prospects, positional value be damned. Don’t love taking a tight end or running back in the top 10? Well, it’s easier to do so when your confidence in Jeanty and Warren actually being good is significantly higher than say does Tet McMillan have enough juice to separate in the NFL? Want to draft Will Campbell as a guard but don’t love taking a guard in the top 10? Well, if you’re certain you’re getting the next Zack Martin, is it worth passing on that sign up for Will Johnson’s rollercoaster film and multiple injuries?
Speaking of Jeanty and Johnson, I think those are the other options here. Breece Hall is in the last year of his contract and yes the Jets have Braelon Allen but you’d imagine Aaron Glenn wants to be a smash-mouth, run the ball and play defense type team. He’s going to be intrigued by the possibility of adding Jeanty. As for Johnson, D.J. Reed is a significant loss for the Jets and he has not been adequately replaced. I know the team signed Brandon Stephens, and this pick may seem like it simply just needs to be offense, but adding someone of Johnson’s talent to play across from Sauce would really open up a lo of possibilities for what Aaron Glenn can do with his front seven.
#8 Carolina Panthers
This pick seems destined to be a defender, but there’s a reason argument to be made that Carolina should draft help for Bryce Young. Given Chuba Hubbard’s new deal and Jonathon Brooks’ presence, I’d call it highly unlikely the Panthers would take Jeanty here, but it’s plausible neither of those factors stop them given the team can move on from Hubbard in 2026 if they’re willing to eat $1.5 million, and Brooks has now twice torn his ACL.
There’s better odds, however, that Carolina would consider either Tyler Warren or Tet McMillan. Again, I don’t think McMillan will find his way into the top 10, but given Thielen’s age and Legette’s lack of impact his rookie year the team may want a big bodied receiver for Young. Granted, you can argue it’s better to take Warren as the big bodied receiver who can also help as a blocker, just like why the Jets would consider him at 7. Neither the Tremble deal (which the Panthers can get out of in 2026), nor the presence of Ja’Tavion Sanders should prevent Carolina from going with Warren if that’s what they think is best.
Yet, this pick does figure to be defensive. Pick any position on defense and Carolina could use an upgrade. The leading contenders presumably are Jalon Walker, Mykel Williams, and Shemar Stewart. While Williams and Stewart are true edge defenders, debate currently raging as to whether or not Walker can hold up on the edge at 243lbs or if he can “only” be an off-ball linebacker, moonlight as an edge rusher on passing downs or coming as a rusher on designed blitzes. Keep in mind, however, that Panthers general manager Luke Kuechley was once the 9th pick of the draft as a true, pure off-ball linebacker, and I’d venture to guess the future Hall of Famer thinks he was worthy of that selection.
I know I previously said I don’t expect a lot of trades in this draft, but I think a Carolina-San Francisco trade is a distinct possibility. San Francisco has some extra picks, though given their exodus in free agency they need to restock the roster. Still, they can maybe move up to 8 from 11 for pick 100, their extra third rounder, and if fall in love with either Campbell or Membou they may view jumping the Saints and Bears as a worthy endeavor. As for the Panthers, the caliber of player they’d be selecting at 11 vs. 8 isn’t really any different, and they add an extra pick for free.
#9 New Orleans Saints
The Saints feel like the first team where they can allow the board to dictate what they’re going to do. Carter, Hunter, and Ward will be gone. It seems there’s sort of a five man tier after that of Graham, Jeanty, Campbell, Warren, and Membou based on a combination of talent and positional value. At least three of the five should be gone by the time the 9th pick rolls around, meaning the Saints can just take the their preference between the fourth and fifth, regardless of who it is. Or four of the five are gone and New Orleans just takes the remainder. And this includes Jeanty and Warren. Yes, they team is financially tied to Kamara for another two seasons, but does New Orleans want to pass on by far their highest graded remaining player for the question marks of Will Johnson, etc.? Warren would be the best and “cleanest” prospect available, and no tight end on the roster should prevent them from drafting him if he’s their highest rated remaining player.
If all five are gone the Saints will have to make an actual decision on who to draft, but it still feels like the board coming to them. This roster is in such rough shape they could take anyone and it’s justifiable. They can take Tet to add a big bodied receiver to Olave, who is potentially one concussion away from retirement. Any defender would suffice as well, especially Johnson given the state of the cornerback group. I do think edge is on the table despite Granderson, Jordan, and Young being on the roster. Cam Jordan has reached the phase of his career where any season could be his last, and despite the two year financial commitment to Young, he’s never been the same since injuries started sapping away at his body.
The point is, even if the Saints are selecting from a few players in the third tier of this draft, they can just take whoever they have rated as the best player available. Unless, of course, they decide to take a quarterback. I don’t know that I’m buying it that New Orleans will take a quarterback in the first round, but with a first year head coach and the ability to move on from Derek Carr in 2026, if Kellen Moore just loves someone it is absolutely a possibility.
As outlined in the New England section, given Mickey’s hatred of actually having draft picks I think the Saints could go up to 4 if they absolutely have to have either Campbell or Membou.
#10 Chicago Bears
Speaking of in the New England section, the Bears are one of two teams I could see trading up with the Patriots. Armed with an extra second Johnson and Poles may just go “fuck it” and send 39 or 41 to Foxborough to go get Jeanty.
Speaking of Jeanty, I think if he gets to 10 this is a done deal. I can’t imagine Johnson passing on him. I get Poles has final say and he has always used his premium draft capital on premium positions, but again, are you going to pass on Jeanty for the unknown of Mike Green or Shemar Stewart?
If Jeanty is off the board I think edge will come directly into focus. They have Sweat and signed Odeyingbo but that signing shouldn’t prevent them from taking a pass rusher here if that’s who they have highest on the board.
The other position they could look to is corner. Adding Will Johnson would have the Bears run a legit three deep at the position. Plus, if they’re going to only deploy Kyler Gordon as a slot corner then the team needs another boundary defender to pair with Johnson.
I don’t think offensive tackle will really be on the table here, especially if Will Campbell and Membou don’t make it this far. Never say never as Braxton Jones is in a contract year, but it makes more sense for Chicago to take a developmental guy later to potentially take over in 2026 should Jones leave as opposed to drafting a backup tackle with the 10th pick of the draft. But hey, you never know. I also think if Jeanty is off the board and Warren is here the Bears may pounce. Chicago can save $8.4 million by moving on from Kmet next year, and Warren would be the best player on the board. Again, do you want to just take a cleaner prospect in Warren, or roll the dice on Will Johnson or Shemar Stewart?
#11 San Francisco 49ers
Other than quarterback, wide receiver, and a non-Jeanty running back, San Francisco could take anyone and the world would go “yea, makes sense.” They need help on the offensive line. They need help at ever level of the defense. They have some extra picks if they want to explore a not-too-costly move into the top 10. They could move down to stockpile more picks so they can better fill out the roster. Nearly everything is on the table here.
#12 Dallas Cowboys
Speaking of everything being on the table, this roster is in really bad condition. Gone are the days of an elite offensive line. There is nothing behind CeeDee Lamb at receiver. The Cowboys *need* a running back, which is a wild state of affairs in the year 2025. They have four good defensive players. Dallas could draft any non-quarterback and the world would go “yea, that makes sense.”
Unless Jeanty magically falls, I think Dallas is going to wait on running back until Day 2, if not specifically the third round. They need to address the defense and/or receiver before getting to running back. They picked a good year to need help along the defensive front as that’s where the strength of this class is. If I had to guess, the Cowboys’ first two picks will be a combination of a defensive lineman and a receiver that can take the top off a defense.
#13 Miami Dolphins
Terron Armstead is now officially retired, but before that the Dolphins stated they were going to act as if he would not be on the roster moving forward. This pick likely comes down to one of two things; Miami’s preference between Kelvin Banks and Josh Simmons, or Malaki Starks. Miami’s offensive line is in dire need of an upgrade independent of anything else, but at a certain point when is Tua going to need to medically retire. The Dolphins have to protect him. The Starks pick is a simple one-to-one replacement for Jevon Holland, a jack-of-all trades safety.
#14 Indianapolis Colts
This is Tyler Warren’s floor, but assuming he goes before this I’d say it’s Loveland’s floor as well. I think there is a reasonable argument to be made that Warren and Loveland are the two best receivers in the draft. Regardless, this pick *has* to be something that makes life easier on whoever wins the starting quarterback job. Whether it’s one of the two tight ends, one of the receivers, or a reach on a right guard, this has to be an offensive player. They spent a lot of money in free agency on Ward and Bynum and already run pretty deep along the defensive front. If they just absolutely love Jihaad Campbell they could pull the trigger, but at the end of the day this just has to be an offensive player.
#15 Atlanta Falcons
I don’t expect many trades in the first round but the Falcons (and spoiler, the Cardinals) seem like trade down spots if a team out there just needs to get their guy. The Falcons have only five draft picks, and worse only two in the top 117. Their second rounder is the 46th pick and after that they don’t draft again until 118. I know Atlanta never selects an edge rusher in the first round, but it’s easily their biggest need and in a deep edge class they can move down the board and still get a talented prospect. I think the Broncos are a fair bet to trade with the Falcons or Cardinals. Sean Payton, much like his ole pal Mickey, has shown he doesn’t care about draft for volume, he prefers to just get his guy, and he will light future draft capital on fire in order to do so. I have a feeling Denver is going to want to make sure they get their hands on Omarion Hampton, and the 15th or 16th pick seems like a good spot to go up for him.
If Atlanta stays put, which is the likely scenario, this almost has to be a front seven defender, and more specifically a defensive lineman. Grady Jarrett is gone. Zach Harrison, David Onyemata, and Kentavius Street may be competent players on the interior, but none are a difference maker. And the situation is worse at edge. Jihaad Campbell, Jalon Walker (if available), Malaki Starks, and Nick Emmanwori would be the other defensive options that make sense here.
#16 Arizona Cardinals
To rehash what I wrote above regarding a trade with the Broncos, the Cardinals are a little light on picks as they have six in total. Monti Ossenfort has shown a willingness to move around the board on draft day, headlined by his double maneuver in the first round of 2023. So if Sean Payton really wants Hampton (or anyone) this could be an easy trade partner. The other option, and this applies to Atlanta as well, is if someone wants to come up for Dart or a falling Shedeur.
In the more likely scenario Arizona stays and picks, they could go in almost any direction. It wouldn’t be a shock to see them take Hampton given Conner’s age and the fact the team can save $8 million in 2026 by releasing him. The team needs another receiver, specifically someone with some juice, and they can upgrade the interior of their offensive line (granted no interior offensive lineman figures to go in the first half of round 1).
Then there’s the defense. They could use another pass rusher to add to their rotation but that seems more like a Day 2 or 3 to-do item. They desperately need an outside corner so if Will Johnson falls or if they like Jahdae Barron enough that very easily could be the direction they go. They can also use another lineman that puts his hand in the dirt, as well as a linebacker, putting Jihaad Campbell on the radar here.
#17 Cincinnati Bengals
Any non-quarterback, non-receiver should not come as a surprise here. They *shouldn’t* draft a running back or a tight end, but if they just love Hampton or Loveland it shouldn’t be a shock if they pull the trigger.
This roster is in bad shape, especially if they’re forced to trade Hendrickson. Even if they keep him, they need more edge rushers. They also need as much help in the secondary as they can possible get. One more linebacker and one more defensive tackle would be beneficial as well.
Then there’s the offensive line. They can’t possibly feel good about either tackle or guard spot. I’m sure the team isn’t going to write off Mims after one year, but tackle is on the table given how poorly Orlando Brown has played and the fact the team can save over $14 million in 2026 by releasing him. You can at least sell yourself on potential with Mims, where as at guard there’s no clear reason for optimism.
The problem, of course, is that the defense is in such rough shape the Bengals may not have the ability to spend this pick on an offensive lineman. So, as with the Falcons and Cardinals above them, I think Cincinnati, with only six picks and a billion needs, will be desperately trying to trade down from this spot. Will they be so desperate as to let Pittsburgh jump in front of Seattle to draft their quarterback of the future?
#18 Seattle Seahawks
But would the Seahawks draft a quarterback anyway? I don’t find it very likely. The media is misreporting that Darnold’s contract is really a one year deal. His 2026 guarantee money actually vested on the 5th day of the 2025 league year, so his $40 million dead cap figure for 2026 is locked in. Add in his cap number for 2025 and if Seattle moves on after one year they’ll have basically paid him $55 million dollars for a single season. The Seahawks can get out of the deal in 2027 while saving $25.7 million, so given how lackluster this quarterback class is, I find it much more likely Seattle drafts their heir apparent in 2026. (But never say never).
John Schneider has a proven track record of how he approaches the draft and team building. He always is willing to trade, especially down, and he takes the best player available regardless of position and team need. He also doesn’t value interior offensive lineman, at least at the cost of premium resources (draft capital, free agent dollars), so while it’s popular to put Tyler Booker or Grey Zabel here given how dire the situation is, I’d be shocked if Schneider actually did that.
Boye Mafe, Abe Lucas, Coby Bryant, Riq Woolen, and Kenneth Walker are all entering a contract season without an extension in place. I’d be surprised if they went with a running back given they have Zach Charbonnet behind Walker. Emmanwori gets mocked to Seattle fairly commonly due to his similarities to Kyle Hamilton. Jahdae Barron would provide the team an upgrade at nickel corner and could move outside in 2026 if they let Woolen walk. There will be a pass rusher available here if they like one enough. If Josh Simmons and/or Kelvin Banks is on the board they could play guard year one before kicking out to right tackle if the team wants to let Lucas walk in free agency.
I think receiver is on the table despite the Kupp signing. Schneider is going to draft the best player available and Golden and McMillan could be his highest graded player here if available. Golden would add a burner (yes I know they signed MVS) while Tet would provide a X to go along with Kupp and JSN.
I’d also keep an eye on Kenneth Grant here. Grant and Macdonald didn’t overlap during their time in Michigan, but you’d figure Macdonald is plugged into the program and knows one way or another if he should draft Grant. The 330-pounder would give the team a true nose tackle between Jarran Reed and Leonard Williams.
#19 Tampa Bay Buccaneers
This seems to be Jihaad Campbell’s floor. The fit is just too good between Campbell’s talent, the team’s need, and his how he’d fair in this defense. Bringing in Reddick on a one-year deal won’t prevent Tampa from taking a pass rusher here if they like one enough. Malaki Starks or Nick Emmanwori would hit a big deal next to Winfield Jr., but Jason Licht has only ever drafted a defensive back once in the first round since taking over his role in 2014, and that was Vernon Hargreaves in 2016 which didn’t pan out and he was also a corner. Given Licht’s track record of finding quality DBs after round 1 (Carlton Davis, Sean Murphy-Bunting, Jamal Dean, Mike Edwards, Zyon McCollum, Tyreek Smith) I doubt that’s the direction he goes.
Licht skews towards the trenches in the first round and the interior of both lines need some help. I doubt they’re writing off Barton after one season but they could use a left guard, and they could use an upgrade on either side of Vita Vea.
#20 Denver Broncos
In case it wasn’t obvious from the above, I think there’s a fair chance Denver moves up to the 15-17 range to draft Omarion Hampton. Looking at this roster their biggest need is running back (comical in 2025) and Sean Payton has shown he will just go get his guys in the draft regardless of if consolidating draft capital is a good idea or not.
Benjamin Albright is as plugged into the Broncos as anyone (he cryptically tweeted out last year the team was going to draft Bo Nix) and he is insisting a receiver will not be the selection at 20, so I’ll digress to him on that.
Like every other team in the NFL Denver could use another corner and another pass rusher. If both Johnson and Barron are gone I don’t know that they’d reach for the next tier of corners and instead just turn their attention to an edge defender. Of course, it’s also possible they just sit tight at 20 and Hampton makes it to them.
#21 Pittsburgh Steelers
I may not personally think the Steelers will take a quarterback in the first round, but Rodgers does provide them a perfect bridge quarterback. Given Rodgers’ stature there won’t be a clamoring to play the young kid before he’s ready. Barring injury, 2025 will be a redshirt season for Shedeur, Dart, or Shough should Pittsburgh go that route. If the team believes one of them is the right person to lead the Steelers into their next era, then that’s that.
But Rodgers also gives them perfect reason to kick the can. Signing Rodgers means you’re all in for 2025, and taking either a running back (if Hampton is available) or a trench player maximizes your odds of winning a Super Bowl in 2025. Given the consensus view that this is a down year at quarterback, it makes more sense for Pittsburgh to look elsewhere and draft their new guy in 2026. They may also be scarred from Kenny Pickett when it comes to forcing a quarterback selection when they felt they had to.
I don’t think they’d take a running back here, especially if Hampton is gone. They are the team that took Najee Harris first round, but in a loaded class they’re better off taking someone in the trenches on either side of the ball and coming back to running back in the third or fourth round.
The team could also look to trade down to recoup some draft capital after sending their second rounder to Seattle for Metcalf.
#22 Los Angeles Chargers
The Chargers have 10 picks so IF they want to make a move up the board they have the ammo to do it. While they turned down who knows what from Minnesota last year at number 5, they did move up in the second round to secure Ladd McConkey, so they’re open to moving around. Again, I don’t expect many trades in the first round since it’s a flat draft and players 12-40 are similar, but there’s a drop off at corner after Johnson and Barron so if a team needs one of them (and the Chargers need corners are presumably have Super Bowl aspirations) they could be trade up targets.
If they stay put logic would dictate Harbaugh will either go to the trenches or take a corner. The interior of their offensive line could be upgraded and now is the point in the draft where Booker and Zabel aren’t huge reaches. On the defensive side they need linemen around Tart or a pass rusher to replace Joey Bosa. It’s easy to connect Harbaugh to Kenneth Grant (or any Michigan player) but remember, last year in the early portion of the second round the Chargers could have drafted Kris Jenkins, Roman Wilson (wide receiver), or Junior Colson (or Mike Sainristil realistically) but instead they traded up for Ladd McConkey (wide receiver). I’m not saying Harbaugh is going to go out of his way to bypass Michigan players, but I don’t think it’s the seamless connection everyone wants to project.
#23 Green Bay Packers
The Packers haven’t drafted a first round receiver since 2002 and I don’t think they’re going to break that streak in a “down” receiver year. They did have Egbuka in for a 30 visit but I don’t put a lot of stock into those things. Never say never but I just don’t see it. Green Bay clearly has a team building philosophy that doesn’t include spending first round picks on receivers.
An offensive tackle could be in the cards so they don’t have to keep starting Rasheed Walker at left tackle. They need another corner but if they do trade away Alexander it becomes a dire situation. But I’d keep my eye on the defensive trenches here. The end situation opposite Gary is barren, they have to decide on Wyatt’s 5th year option by May 1st and they may not think he’s worth it, and for what it’s worth the team can save $14.3 million in 2026 or $20 million in 2027 by cutting Kenny Clark. I’m not saying they’re going to, I’m just saying that’s a lot of savings for someone in their age 31 and 32 season.
Given Green Bay is the team that took Gary based on his traits and despite his lack of college production I’d keep Shemar Stewart in mind here if he does get this far down the board.
#24 Minnesota Vikings
Out of all teams I think the Vikings are they most likely to trade down. They only have four picks this year and after 24 they don’t draft again until 97. After that it’s 139 and 187. End of list. Analytics minded Kwesi is not going to leave a draft having made only four selections (though he did trade away future draft capital to move up in the first round so who knows).
Again, the problem is who is going to come up. Minnesota picks directly in front of the Texans so if there’s an offensive lineman someone in the late first wants this would be a good trade up spot. The Rams pick two selections later so if the Giants, Browns, or Saints passed on a quarterback in the top 10 and are worried Los Angeles will nab their guy, this is a good spot to target.
The first team that came to mind for me was the Chiefs given their dire offensive line need and the fact they have eight draft picks and it’s doubtful eight rookies make this roster. However, Kansas City’s roster is in worse shape than you realize and they need their picks in the first four rounds to add as much talent as they can.
As for the Vikings, a guard, corner, or one of the two safeties would make the most sense. If they move down they can probably kiss Starks and Emmanwori goodbye, but there should be a guard or corner for them later in the first or at the top of the second.
#25 Houston Texans
This offensive line is incomprehensibly bad. Their hand is almost forced here. They could use a defensive tackle but considering how deep the class is this year they’re backed into a corner taking an offensive lineman here. If Kelvin Banks falls this far they’d probably sprint the card in. I don’t know if they’ll be in the Josh Simmons market since Nick Caserio drafts culture guys and there’s some whispers out there that Simmons isn’t a grinder and doesn’t have the adequate work ethic. Are those concerns founded at all? I have no clue, but it’s out there. They could reach for Conerly if they insist on going tackle, or they could tap into the interior group. Taking Zabel and his positional flexibility would allow them to just get their “best five” (lol) offensive lineman on the field. The same concept applies to Donovan Jackson who has extensive experience at both guard and tackle. Booker makes sense if he’s here.
#26 Los Angeles Rams
I understand the desire to have your future plan in place, but I just don’t see the Rams taking a quarterback when they want to maximize the Stafford window. Maybe if this was a better quarterback class and you were getting a Jordan Love caliber prospect in the late first, but Dart, etc aren’t that.
Bare in mind this is Les Snead so trading down is always an option. If they stay and pick their top targets are going to be an edge rusher or a corner.
#27 Baltimore Ravens
Another team that’s always liable to trade, I think Tyler Booker would be a lock if available. If not they could still go guard or continue to add to their arsenal of pass rusher because they’re the Ravens and that’s what they do.
#28 Detroit Lions
Another team that could always trade their pick, the best bet is some kneecap biting trench-man. The Lions have a need now at guard and Aidan Hutchinson really needs a running mate.
#29 Washington Commanders
Washington might be highly motivated to move down and recoup some of the draft capital it spent in the Tunsil trade. Having traded for Deebo and Tunsil their biggest remaining needs are corner, defensive line, and guard. Grabbing a corner with length before hitting the defensive trenches on Day 2 makes a lot of sense.
#30 Buffalo Bills
This really can (and will) be any defensive player. They desperately need defensive backs and linebackers though.
#31 Kansas City Chiefs
If there’s an offensive lineman the Chiefs just have to have then trading up with the Vikings to leapfrog Houston makes a lot of sense. But Kansas City needs a bunch of stuff and they may not want to send away a third rounder.
We all watched the Super Bowl so we all know how badly they need an offensive lineman. I think they’re more inclined to take a guard than a tackle given the Jaylon Moore deal, Jawaan Taylor anchor, and the developmental draft picks they’ve used on Wanya Morris and Kingsley Suamataia. That said, taking Simmons who is coming off injured into a situation where they don’t have to rush him onto the field makes a lot of sense.
On defense they can really use another safety, an edge rusher, and an upgrade next to Chris Jones on the interior.
#32 Philadelphia Eagles
Always a trade candidate, Howie looks primed to restock the trenches after losing Williams and Sweat to free agency and Brandon Graham to retirement. He’d probably lean edge over defensive tackle in the first round five that Jalen Cater, Jordan Davis, and Moro Ojomo make a good three man rotation as is. If Howie does trade away Dallas Goedert I wouldn’t be surprised if he took Mason Taylor here. Another boundary corner would make sense as well.
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