The Dolphins and Bears are Awfully Similar

The Bears and Dolphins are awfully similar. They nearly played to a draw in week 6, with Miami narrowly escaping the matchup with a win in overtime. The two teams put up identical numbers during the game, so the ending was only fitting. The game its self was indicative of the larger similarities between the two teams, as the Dolphins and Bears are awfully similar.

Week 6 Matchup

Chicago and Miami played a full 70 minutes of football in week 6 before the Dolphins kicked a field goal as time expired. Although the game should have been decided by a single score, the perfect outcome would have been a draw. Consider the team stats from the game:

Again, this game should have been a draw, but a buzzer beating field goal will suffice. So the question begs, how did we get here? I mean Brock freakin Osweiler started the game for Chicago. How did this happen?

The short answer is “any given Sunday,” with the long answer an illustration of how the Dolphins and Bear are awfully similar through the first two weeks. Each team has two losses (Chicago has already had it’s bye), so it’s worth wondering which team has more lasting power as well.

The Similarities Abound

Through six weeks Chicago and Miami are performing on similar levels in an unusual number of areas:

Ok, that’s a lot to digest, so let’s discuss.

At a high level, each team is top 6 in DVOA and top 9 in DAVE on the backs of their defense and good special teams play. Chicago and Miami each have a mid tier offense with poor quarterback play but solid receiving and running grades. They have each faced a middle of the road schedule with a cake walk the rest of the year. And on a week to week basis each team’s performance fluctuates greatly.

There are also mirror images on the roster.  Consider the quarterbacks:

And how about the fact that each backup running back is outperforming the starter. After two productive seasons from Jordan Howard, and a breakout second half of the year from Kenyan Drake, Tarik Cohen and Frank Gore have been more productive.

Where Does Each Team Go From Here?

Your surprising defensive DVOA leaders after two weeks: #Dolphins and #Jets. Since 2002, the top 2 defensive DVOA teams after Week 2 have finished with an average rank of 7.5. So yes, there are no opponent adjustments yet, but there's a good chance those defenses will stay good.

— Aaron Schatz 🏈 (@FO_ASchatz) September 17, 2018

Again, the Dolphins and Bears are awfully similar, and with each defense still in the top 10 of DVOA through six weeks, it appears safe to say the defenses will remain good throughout the season. As previously mentioned, each team faces an easy schedule moving forward. The odds are, however, Chicago has much more lasting power. They rank higher in each defensive category and there are other metrics to suggests Trubisky has vastly outplayed Tannehill, as opposed to being his peer:

Chicago also has the advantage in the other core four areas as well. The Bears are grading out as an elite pass blocking unit, and also have a significant advantage in run blocking. Furthermore, and unsurprisingly, the Bears are an elite pass rushing team, anchored by Khalil Mack. The Dolphins, in contrast, are aren’t putting tons of heat on opposing quarterbacks. Lastly, the Bears are grading out as the best coverage unit, while Miami is below-average, despite the presence of Xavien Howard.

When two objects of the same mass collide at the same velocity, they move away from one another at the same velocity. Despite these two teams being worthy of the Spiderman pointing meme, it would appear they are headed in different directions from here, but at different speeds. So thank you, football, for breaking the laws of physics.