(Photo by Andy Lyons/Getty Images)
Today is the 2018 NBA Draft, so it is time to update our 2018 NBA Mock Draft for the final time (sorry for the keyword plug). Same as the previous versions, this one is not a projection of what will happen, but what I would do if I was making the selection at each pick.
#1 Phoenix Suns – PG Luka Doncic, Real Madrid
I firmly believe that Doncic is the best player in this draft and should go with the first selection. I understand that he does not have the upside of Ayton because he is not an elite athlete, but I don’t think Ayton is on par with previous #1 picks and is a no-brainer.
What Doncic did as a teenager in the second best league in the world is unprecedented. Doncic is already a fantastic passer and a pick and roll wizard. He jumper could use some work, but don’t we say that about every single 19 year old? His statistical profile is simply too good to ignore atop the draft. Doncic is by far the top player in Kevin Pelton’s projections, and has the best projection out of 800-plus players Pelton has projected dating back to 2003.
I’ll leave you with this tidbit from Pelton’s article: “Doncic (5.8) tops Anthony Davis (5.5) for that honor, though it’s worth noting that I don’t have a projection for LeBron James out of St. Vincent-St. Mary High School or Dwight Howard the following year.”
#2 Sacramento Kings – C Deandre Ayton, Arizona
For the record, this is the only scenario in which I would take a center if I were the Kings. It seems to be that they are going to select Bagley, (since Ayton to the Suns is essentially a lock at this point) and I couldn’t disagree more with that decision.
I’m not in love with Ayton, especially through the prism that he is about to go #1. His defensive effort and awareness are severely lacking, and he basically needs to become an un-guardable offensive force to warrant such a high selection. He has the athleticism and plenty of tools to work with, but I don’t think that it is more likely than it is unlikely he becomes the top scorer on a title contender.
Ayton was cooked up in a lab so he could easily prove me wrong, but recent top picks such as Towns or Simmons were in a different tier than Ayton.
#3 Atlanta Hawks – PG Trae Young, Oklahoma
I decided I’m going to die on the Trae Young hill. He needs to go in the top three. If you are ignoring Young you are eschewing everything that the NBA has become.
Young’s shooting ability is just too lethal, and if you go under on the pick you’re dead. Young shot 36% on 327 attempts while at Oklahoma, but consider that he took 102 three point attempts from 30+ feet, and shot 26% on such shots. And these weren’t open looks either, they were contested.
If you eliminate those 102 attempts from 30 feet and beyond, Young shot 40.8% on all other three point attempts. Considering Young is an 86% free throw shooter, I think the issue is more his shot selection than his actually shooting ability. Young’s useage rate last season was a preposterous 37%, so he always had the green light to shoot. I think any NBA coach should be able to reign him in and get him into better looks.
Young is also already a plus ball handler and excellent passer (9.8 assists per 40 minutes as a freshman). His physical profile isn’t great and he may never be even a net neutral on defense, but his offense has so much potential he has to go in the top three.
I simply don’t understand how the entire NBA mindset has shifted to something along the lines of “yea forget centers, they can’t even stay on the floor against the elite competition anyway, just get as much shooting as you can,” while simultaneously looking at this draft and thinking, “yea, let’s take five centers over Trae Young.”
#4 Memphis Grizzlies – SF/PF Michael Porter Jr., Missouri
Michael Porter’s back scares me, but if I saw his medical files or had a medical staff tell me he is good to go then he should be in contention for the #1 pick. He was projected as such before the injury, and he plays a more valuable position than anyone else projected to go in the top seven or so. I know this is the NBA and you take the best player and eschew position, but Porter was thought of as a future #1 pick and can play in the wing.
Not only would Memphis be shooting for the moon here, but in theory Porter would create a nice floor balance with cornerstones Conley and Gasol. If the Grizzlies really want a center here they could have one, and on draft night Trae Young will probably be available, and it looks increasingly like that Doncic will be as well.
Those options overlap Conley and Gasol, not compliment them, and Memphis wants to get back into the playoffs immediately. We can debate if taking the guy that didn’t play basketball last season is the best way to get into the playoffs next year, but at least he has a straight path to playing time. (I suspect Doncic would as a wing player, but I think to get the most value out of having Doncic on the floor is to have him as your point guard.)
#5 Dallas Mavericks – C Jaren Jackson Jr., Michigan State
This is really just the Mavs taking the best player available. I think it is a close call between Jackson and Bamba, but I would take Jackson.
Jackson is a switch everything center that blocks shots with both hands. He shot 39.6% on three pointers last season on 96 attempts, and his 79.7% free throw rate suggests he can remain a three point threat in the NBA. Jackson also cuts well and runs hard, so Carlilse will probably enjoy his energy and effort.
#6 Orlando Magic – C Mohamed Bamba, Texas
Once again this is just a matter of taking the best guy on the board. Bamba has a mythical 7’10” wingspan and is a block machine. He has the athleticism to be a switch everything center and figures to be a rim running dunk threat in pick and rolls.
Bamba did not shoot a high percentage on threes at Texas but he has changed his shooting mechanics and there is optimism he can become a reliable three point threat.
#7 Chicago Bulls – PF/C Marvin Bagley III, Duke
This is the point of the draft where it seems like you just have to take Bagley if he is available, but I wouldn’t want to. It sucks because he tries really hard, and I like those guys, but I don’t see how Bagley fits what the NBA game has become.
There are serious concerns on how good a defender Bagley can become, and that just matters more as a center. He has the athleticism to switch everything, but his instincts seem to be lacking. Bagley is also built more like a four, but has to play the five in the NBA.
He can become an offensive weapon, but I don’t know if I trust his jumper. He shot 39.7% on threes at Duke on only 58 attempts, and shot only 62.7% from the free throw line. He is extremely athletic but he is also extremely left hand dominant. There is a place for him in the league but the idea behind taking a guy in the top two is he can become a true star, and I don’t see Bagley’s path.
#8 Cleveland Cavaliers – SF/PF Miles Bridges, Michigan State
You know who the Cavs could have used in the Finals? Jae Crowder. If I was Cleveland I would sit at #8 and take whichever Bridges I like better. I’m taking Miles here is because I think he has more upside since he is younger and more athletic, so if LeBron does leave, there is a higher chance (theoretically) that Miles Bridges can become a star on this team.
#9 New York Knicks – SF Mikal Bridges, Villanova
I changed my mind, I don’t think the best thing for the Knicks to do is take a point guard and move Frank to the two guard. I won’t complain if they do, but I was forcing it instead of just having the Knicks take the best player, who at this point is Mikal Bridges.
Bridges should be able to immediately step in and provide value as a 3 and D guy. Bridges shot 43.5% on 239 three point attempts last season, and 85% from the line. Bridges also ranked in the 94th percentile on catch-and-shoot jumpers, according to Synergy.
#10 *TRADE* Suns send #16, #31 to 76ers for #10 and Jerryd Bayless
Phoenix Suns (F/PHI/LAL) – PG Collin Sexton, Alabama
I hate the idea of trading down in the draft, but I don’t love the upside of anyone available to Philly here enough to force this pick with both Bridges off the board. Philly only drops down five spots, picks up the first pick of the second round (I know they already have too picks but they can figure it out later), and dumps Bayless’ contract.
The Suns jump up for someone who may be the first point guard drafted, and the team desperately needs an upgrade at the point guard position. Sexton has his short comings, especially as a point guard. He gets tunnel vision, isn’t an instinctive passer, and takes some bad shots. I like to think you can coach the bad shots out of a player, and while you can’t teach instincts, you can teach a guy how to run an offense effectively. Sexton is worth the shot here.
#11 Charlotte Hornets – C Wendell Carter Jr., Duke
I’ve stuck with this pick in each edition and still would go this route if I was Charlotte and the draft shook out the way I have the first ten picks unfolding. I am probably too low on Carter, I think his bust factor is almost zero and his safety is certainly valuable. I just don’t see the upside and believe in the top ten you should go for the upside, or at least prioritize wings. Carter is viewed as a low ceiling center, hence the slide.
But I will be surprised if he is bad, and for a team staring a rebuild in the face, getting the best players you can is a good idea.
#12 Los Angeles Clippers (F/DET) – SG Lonnie Walker IV, Miami
#13 Los Angeles Clippers – SF Kevin Knox Kentucky, Kentucky
I’m just going to write up the two Clippers picks together. At least one of these picks has to be a wing, I think we can all agree on that. I considered if I would take Robert Williams, since he profiles similar to DeAndre Jordan and I would not be investing in DJ long-term if I were running the Clippers.
I also asked myself if I would take a point guard, since Patrick Beverly’s salary next season isn’t guaranteed and L.A. could cut him if his injury is causing issues. Even if the Clippers keep Beverly, both his deal and Teodosic’s deal expire in 2019.
But I decided these picks would be best utilized on taking two shots at wing players. Wing players are so hard to find in the current NBA, and the Clippers have a severe lack of them. Plus Austin Rivers’ contract expires after next season and Doc Rivers is no longer the general manager.
Lonnie Walker is a great athlete who can guard both back court spots and has shown flashes as a shot creator. Knox is a raw, athletic player who can score in a variety of ways. He is skilled around the rim, knows how to move without the ball, and runs hard in transition. He has the athleticism to guard multiple positions.
#14 Denver Nuggets – SG Troy Brown Jr., Oregon
The Nuggets desperately need some defensive help and Brown has the size and length to provide it. Brown is 6’6.75″ with a 6’10.25″ wingspan and can switch on screens and is a good team defender.
Brown is also a hard worker and a high-IQ player who does the little things on the court. He is the third youngest available prospect in the draft and will need some time to develop, but should Chandler Wilson pick up his player option, Brown can come off the bench his rookie year before becoming a starter in 2019.
#15 Washington Wizards – C Robert Williams, Texas A&M
Williams makes a ton of sense here as he is arguably the best player on the board and hits a need. Washington needs more athleticism and upside in their front court, and Williams is an athletic freak who plays a lot like DeAndre Jordan.
A rim-running lob threat, Williams would provide a long-term solution at the position once Washington is out of both Gortat’s and Mahimi’s contracts.
#16 Philadelphia 76ers (F/PHX/MIA) – PG Elie Okobo, France
People are going to consider me insane for how many times I have had a team pass on Shai Gilgeous-Alexander at this point, but I’m not a big fan and I’ve developed a love affair with Okobo, so I’m sticking to my guns here.
Okobo is a scorer who shot 41.3% on threes last season, and the Bucks need another shot creator and more shooting around Giannis.
Okobo is a savy pick and roll player with nice touch on his floater and excellent length for his height. He still needs to develop his playmaking/point guard skills, but he has the length to be a switch defender and the shooting stroke to space the floor.
#17 Milwaukee Bucks – PG/SG Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Kentucky
Eric Bledsoe can leave town in the summer of 2019, and I wouldn’t want to give him his next contract anyway. SGA is viewed as raw but possessing immense upside, so in this scenario he doesn’t have to step directly into the lead guard role and can develop before starting at point guard next season. He is also the best player available.
SGA shot 40.4% from three this season, but that came on only 57 attempts. His 82.2% from the line gives optimism that his three point range will translate, although he may need to overhaul his mechanics.
#18 San Antonio Spurs – SF Dzanan Musa, Cedevita
The number one thing exposed from Kawhi Leonard’s absence this season is the complete lack of shot creation San Antonio has without him, LaMarcus Aldridge withstanding.
Musa, an 18 year old, averaged 22 points per 40 minutes in an efficient manner playing against professional competition in Europe. Similar to Doncic, that just doesn’t happen with guys this young.
Musa fits the modern game as he can create his own shot, is an advanced pick and roll player, is great in transition, pushes off of rebounds, and knocks down his threes. I’ll leave you with this nugget from his profile:
“Loves the big moments. Infatuated with the NBA. Idolizes Kobe Bryant.” Take this guy 1.
#19 Atlanta Hawks – SG/SF Jacon Evans, Cincinnati
Evans is the type of guy you just want on your team. He has the length to be a switch defender, plays smart, and has a nice shooting stroke. His upside is limited, but he can just be solid at everything. Think about the types of guys that stay on the floor at the highest level of play in the NBA. If you have a single weakness you get exposed and subsequently need to come out of the game. Teams need guys with no weaknesses, even if they don’t have a single elite skill.
#20 Minnesota Timberwolves (F/OKC) – SG Kevin Huerter, Maryland
I don’t know if Thibs would go for this, since this implies you would actually space the floor with shooting around KAT and slide Butler up to the four. However, Minnesota desperately needs as much shooting as it can get, and Huerter can be that shooter
Huerter has also been lighting up pre-draft workouts and word is someone has made him a promise as he basically just went home and canceled all his workouts. There is a lot of evidence to suggest it was the Lakers that made him that promise, but in a wing starved league obsessed with shooting I don’t know if Huerter is going to last til #25.
#21 Utah Jazz – SF Zhaire Smith, Texas Tech
I do suppose at this point a team should just go for it and take Smith who played out of position in college but is an athletic freak projected to go much higher than this. Smith is described as looking as if he is flying when he jumps. He can switch positions 1-3, is a good screener and is very active on the floor.
The key for Smith will be unlocking his jumper since he has funky mechanics, but we basically say the key for everyone is developing a consistent jump shot, so this shouldn’t be a deterrent.
#22 Chicago Bulls (F/NO) – PG Aaron Holiday, UCLA
Wouldn’t it be fantastic for the Bulls to unite two of the Holiday brothers? I’m not saying they should draft Aaron solely for that reason, but it would be cool.
The Bulls have a lot of bodies at the point guard position but should’t feel great enough in any of their abilities to preclude them from drafting a point guard if they like him. Holiday provides a fantastic shooting ability, high level pick and roll play, and defensive intensity.
#23 Indiana Pacers – PG Jerome Robinson, Boston College
The Pacers desperately need someone else that can create offense besides Oladipo. Robinson averaged 20.8 points per game with on 61.2% true shooting. He hit 40.9% of his threes and has solid combo guard size at 6’5″.
Drafting Robinson would also allow the Pacers to consider walking away from Collinson next summer should they decide that cap space would be better spent elsewhere.
#24 Portland Trailblazers – SG Khyri Thomas, Creighton
While Thomas is a little on the shorter side at 6’3.75″ I believe he is the exact guy the Blazers need. Portland is desperate for quality wing play (join the club) and has a 6’10.5″ wingspan with great athleticism that makes him an elite perimeter defender.
Additionally, and perhaps more importantly, Thomas is a knockdown spot-up shooter. He hit 41.1% of his 151 three point attempts this past season. More so, his quick first step and long strides suggest there may be untapped shot creation potential.
#25 Los Angeles Lakers (F/CLE) – SG Josh Okogie, Georgia Tech
Okogie can be the type of 3 and D player the Lakers should be looking for with this pick. His inefficiency last year can be attributed to his large burden that asked him to perform outside of his skillset. Okogie comes with a 7’0″ wingspan and hit 38% of his threes last season and 82.1% of his free throws.
He is an intelligent off-ball cutter, so Lonzo will love this guy.
#26 Philadelphia 76ers – PF Keita Bates-Diop, Ohio State
A switchable floor spacer that profiles to play power forward next to Embiid. Should the 6ers land a max contract this July, coupled with Embiid’s and Simmons’ extensions, then they may have to let Dario Saric walk in the near future due to cost considerations.
#27 Boston Celtics – De’Anthony Melton, USC
I appear to be the lone guy that isn’t higher on Melton, but that’s ok. However, as a really good defender with the length to be able to guard multiple defenders, Melton profiles a lot like Marcus Smart since he has a super high motor but struggles offensively. The Celtics may lose Smart this offseason due to cap considerations.
#28 Golden State Warriors – SF Melvin Frazier, Tulane
The Warriors actually need some more shooting. Other than their mega-three, they don’t have a reliable knockdown guy. Frazier, with his preposterous 7’2″ wingspan (making him a good switch defender) hit 38.5% of his threes last season and has developed into a good spot-up shooter. He is extremely athletic so while he is on the older side of draft eligible prospects, he has upside.
#29 Brooklyn Nets (F/TOR) – SG Anfernee Simons, IMG Academy
The Nets should just swing for the fences here, and the best way to do that is with Simons. Simons reclassified so he could enter the 2018 draft, so he never went to college. However, he is an incredibly athlete that is very fluid, has a quick release on his jump shot, and his 6’9.25″ wingspan makes him an intriguing potential defender coupled with his athleticism.
#30 Atlanta Hawks (F/HOU) – C Mitchell Robinson, Chalmette H.S.
The Hawks should swing for the fences with this pick. Robinson has posted elite numbers in the Nike EYBL, and as a result actually ranks 9th on Pelton’s big board. “Robinson’s block rate was the best by any EYBL player in a season from 2012 to 2016, his offensive rebound rate was third in that span, and his 73 percent 2-point shooting was tops among players with at least 150 attempts.”
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