Welcome to our first 2018 NBA Mock Draft. The lottery was last night, so the draft order is now set. I am going to do this a little bit different than how I do my NFL Mock Drafts. For the NFL, I try to balance player value, team needs, and rumors to project how the draft will unfold.
In this 2018 NBA Mock Draft, I am going to make these picks as if I were running the team. So, yes, player value and team needs are considerations, but I’m not at all concerned with accurately projecting what will happen in real life. This is just if I was each team who would I take given who is available.
Also, I am only so far along in the NBA Draft preparation that in this initial version I am going to limit the scope to the lottery. Sorry for anyone wanting moren, I promise there will be future versions.
#1 Phoenix Suns – PG Luka Doncic, Real Madrid
I reserve the right to change my mind, but at this point I would take Doncic over Ayton if I were the Suns. I may think differently if I were a different team, but we live in a world where the Suns have the first pick.
My rationale violates the most basic rule of drafting high in the NBA, doubly so with the first pick: Just take the best player/the guy with the most upside. That may be Ayton, I’m not far along enough yet to have made up my mind, and from an athleticism standpoint it isn’t even a contest.
But if we are talking about fit, then Doncic should be the pick. Kokoskov coached the Slovenian national team to a EuroBasket championship last summer, and Luka Doncic was on the team. Kokoskov has lived with Doncic, and raves about the 19 year-old’s passing ability.
Consider a. Kokoskov has experience coaching in Europe and b. Kokoskov just spent four years as a part of Utah’s most exacting, precision based offense in the NBA, and odds are the Suns will be running an offense heavily involving ball movement. Doncic has already run that offense, and his team won a European championship as a result.
#2 Sacramento Kings – C Deandre Ayton, Arizona
This pick is pretty self explanatory. Ayton is typically viewed as the best prospect in this class, so if the top guy gets to you at the second pick you just turn in the card and figure the rest out later.
Ayton profiles to be a rather dominant offensive force, and considering the Kings had the second worst offense, Ayton figures to be a big help.
#3 Atlanta Hawks – SF/PF Michael Porter Jr., Missouri
If I was running a team and my medical staff gave me the all clear on Porter’s back, I would take him in the top 3. Porter was the #2 recruit in his class and in the discussion to be the #1 pick in 2018 early on in the process.
The most difficult thing to obtain in the current NBA is wing players.. There is just a scarcity at the position and the demand greatly exceeds the supply. I know the NBA draft, especially at the top, is “just take the best guy,” and “take the guy with the most upside,” but are we sure Porter isn’t both of those at this point?
If you factor in the positional value that Porter is a wing, then, yes, I would absolutely take him in the top 3 if his back is fine. Considering his pedigree, is anyone going to be surprised if Porter ends up the best player in this draft? And Atlanta gets him third.
#4 Memphis Grizzlies – PF/C Jaren Jackson Jr., Michigan State
It totally blows for Memphis that they won’t be able to get Doncic, so if I were them I would hope the NBA doesn’t pick up on the fact that Porter should go much higher than his current projections on draft night so I could take him here. However, I do think his stock will rise some as the draft approaches, but time will tell how far he climbs.
In this scenario, however, if I were running the Grizzlies I would take Jackson. At this point I think Jackson is both the best player on the board and the guy with the most upside. He can switch 1-5, is an elite rim protector, and shot 39.6% from 3 this season on 96 attempts. Jackson shot 79.7% at the line as well, suggesting his three point percentage is sustainable.
To top it off, Jackson is the youngest player among the lottery locks, as he is still only 18 years old, while everyone else has already turned 19.
#5 Dallas Mavericks – PF/C Marvin Bagley III, Duke
This is simply a case of just taking the best guy on the board. Bagley is very athletic, and figures to develop into an offensive force in the NBA. Adding Bagley to Dennis Smith Jr. and Harrison Barnes makes for an interesting core trio.
#6 Orlando Magic – PG Trae Young, Oklahoma
The Magic got screwed with their lottery luck, but in reality falling to #6 is a blessing. Had they been picking higher they most likely would have felt compelled to take one of the big men. However, Trae Young should be a primary target for this team.
Orlando shipped Elfrid Payton to Phoenix in a mid-season trade, so they could use a new starting point guard. In addition, the team desperately needs shooting. Young’s pull-up jumper is deadly, and while I wouldn’t want to pay for Aaron Gordon, if the Magic keep Gordon around, what will teams do against a Payton-Gordon pick and roll, knowing you can’t let Young shoot and Gordon can jump over buildings as a rim-runner?
#7 Chicago Bulls – C Mohamed Bamba, Texas
Another case of taking the best guy available. Bamba figures to be a defensive anchor, and his 7’9″ wingspan is ridiculous. There is hope he can turn into a good three point shooter and provide floor spacing. This makes it easy to compare him to former Longhorn Myles Turner, but Bamba is the type of guy that could lead a top tier defense, where as Turner doesn’t seem to be at that level.
Considering the Bulls already have Markkanen, their spacing shouldn’t be compromised if Bamba is utilized as a post player. Additionally, if Bamba does add a consistent three point shot to his game, Chicago would have the option to play spread pick and roll.
#8 Cleveland Cavaliers (F/BKN) – SF/PF Mikal Bridges, Villanova
Whether I’m making this pick assuming LeBron stays, or using it to help persuade him to stay (his disdain for rookies probably makes the persuading thing irrelevant), I would take Mikal Bridges.
For the Cavs to win a title in the foreseeable future, they are going to, probably, have to beat the 6ers, Celtics, and Warriors. Mikal Bridges profiles as a modern 3 and D wing that Cleveland desperately needs. I don’t think I need to go into detail about how terrible the Cavaliers defense is. Bridges has a 7’2″ wingspan that allows him to guard multiple positions, allowing the Cavs to switch more often.
Considering next seasons Boston team is going to have Hayward, Tatum, and Brown on the wing for Kyrie to run pick and roll with, bringing in a guy like Bridges is a smart move.
#9 New York Knicks – PG Collin Sexton, Alabama
I think the best thing for the Knicks to do is to bring in a lead ball handler and let Ntilikina develop full time as an off ball guard. After watching his rookie season I think it makes more sense to let him work as a two guard and secondary ball handler.
#10 Philadelphia 76ers (F/LAL) – SF/PF Miles Bridges, Michigan State
So about Eastern Conference teams drafting 3 and D guys since they will probably have to beat Boston and Golden State to win an NBA title. I know the 6ers are going big game hunting in free agency this season, with LeBron and Paul George as primary targets, but Bridges still makes the most sense here.
Bridges doesn’t have the wingspan you want, but he has the heft, strength, and quickness to guard multiple positions. He shot 38% from three in his college career, is a crazy athlete, and gets high marks for his off-court intangibles. The 6ers could do a lot worse than adding a guy like that to their roster.
#11 Charlotte Hornets – C Wendell Carter Jr., Duke
Clearly I am lower on Wendell Carter than the rest of the world. Carter is more of a high floor, low ceiling type guy, so it isn’t an issue for me to go with more high upside guys or better team fits ahead of him. Also bare in mind that two teams – Cleveland and Philadelphia – whose own picks are in the mid 20’s but they are picking in the lottery due to trades. Teams in that situation may be more inclined to take someone that fits the roster over a slightly better player.
But, at this point, the Hornets should end Carter’s slide. I know that Charlotte already has a lot invested in the 4 and 5 positions, but Dwight’s deal expires after 2019, and if Kemba is moved a salary dump of Cody Zeller or Marvin Williams could be a part of the trade. Also, the Hornets shouldn’t pass on someone like Carter because of Willy Hernangomez.
Add in that Carter went to school in North Carolina and should Kemba be traded the team will need a new face to sell, and this is an easy pick.
# 12 Los Angeles Clippers (F/DET) – SG Lonnie Walker IV, Miami
#13 Los Angeles Clippers – SF/PF Kevin Knox, Kentucky
I’m just going to write up the two Clippers picks together. At least one of these picks has to be a wing, I think we can all agree on that. I considered if I would take Robert Williams, since he profiles similar to DeAndre Jordan and I would not be investing in DJ long-term if I were running the Clippers.
I also asked myself if I would take a point guard, Aaron Holiday I suppose, since Patrick Beverly’s salary next season isn’t guaranteed and L.A. could cut him if his injury is causing issues. Even if the Clippers keep Beverly, both his deal and Teodosic’s deal expire in 2019.
But I decided these picks would be best utilized on taking two shots at wing players. Wing players are so hard to find in the current NBA, and the Clippers have a severe lack of them. Plus Austin Rivers’ contract expires after next season and Doc Rivers is no longer the general manager.
Lonnie Walker is a great athlete who can guard both back court spots and has shown flashes as a shot creator. Knox is a raw, athletic player who can score in a variety of ways. He is skilled around the rim, knows how to move without the ball, and runs hard in transition. He has the athleticism to guard multiple positions.
#14 Denver Nuggets – SF/PF Keita Bates-Diop, Ohio State
The Nuggets should focus on defense with this pick and Bates-Diop excels in that area. At this point I’m assuming Wilson Chandler is going to pick up his $12.9 million player option, but this would allow the team to let Chandler walk next offseason.
Bates-Diop can guard multiple positions, is good at cutting, screening, moving the ball, and he shot 35.9% on 184 three point attempts this season, and 79.4% at the line.
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