From Up to the Minute Live: The #Jets are hosting #OU QB Baker Mayfield and there is a lot of love in the building for him. pic.twitter.com/c5SKqISe1p
— Ian Rapoport (@RapSheet) April 9, 2018
Let’s go back in time to the end of March when Manish Mehta, who covers the Jets for the New York Daily News, said the Jets are operating under the assumption that Sam Darnold would be the first pick in the 2018 NFL Draft.
Now, as I write this, the date is Saturday April 21st. Here are five reports that have surfaced since April 3rd:
–League insiders believe the Jets will select Baker Mayfield, assuming Darnold is gone.
-There is a lot of love in the Jets’ building for Baker Mayfield
–“I’m putting my money on Mayfield to the Jets for some reasons I can get into after the draft.”
–“The Jets’ decision-makers have made multiple visits to Oklahoma this year, and they spoke at length with Baker Mayfield at the Senior Bowl and NFL Combine. Mayfield also has already been introduced to Jets ownership.”
–Mayfield to the Jets is a “done deal.”
On Wednesday, April 18th, Rich Cimini, who covers the Jets for ESPN, published this article. There are two big take aways Cimini writes about: 1. The Jets scrambled at the dead line to get Darnold in for a top-30 visit and 2. it isn’t impossible the Jets swap picks with the Giants to get up to #2 to draft Darnold if the Browns do indeed take Josh Allen.
So, to recap, the Jets used to be operating under the assumption Sam Darnold was going 1st on April 26th, five different reports came out that Baker Mayfield is going to be their guy at #3, then abruptly at the deadline they held a meeting with Darnold, when they didn’t previously have one scheduled. It’s also within the range of outcomes that the Jets move up to #2 to secure Darnold should the Browns go with Allen.
It is the heart of lying season, and anything that is said or done could be a smokescreen. But sometimes where there’s smoke, there’s fire. Considering how many reports in such a short time came out saying the Jets are targeting Mayfield, I’m inclined to believe it is just true. Apparently a big part of what the organization likes about Baker is his leadership qualities. Keep in mind a big reason the Jets took Jamal Adams last year was because of his leadership abilities.
It is the most Jets thing ever that they didn’t have a workout scheduled with Darnold and then hastily threw one together at the last possible second. Even if the Jets thought they had no chance at Darnold, they could have at least just done the due diligence.
The fact the Jets did bring Darnold in at the last minute means they are either that incompetent, got a tip that the Allen to the Browns buzz is a distinct possibility, or both. I think it is both. The March report that the Jets were operating under the assumption that Darnold was going to be selected with the 1st pick is essentially corroborated by later reporting. The Jets think Darnold will be gone, everyone with a pulse on the team is saying they are zeroing in on Mayfield, then Josh Allen to Cleveland talks are in full whirlwind and the Jets decide “ya know, maybe we should meet with the guy.”
I don’t see how bringing in Darnold for a workout could possibly be a smokescreen. What is Gang Green gaining from sending a signal they’re interested in Darnold? Everyone knows they are going to draft a quarterback. If Buffalo, or whoever, is so desperate to get a particular quarterback, they already know they need to get in front of the Jets.
Maybe the Jets want to be linked to Mayfield so it forces the Dolphins to give up a treasure chest of picks to go up to #2 and the Jets can take the guy they really want after Miami sacrifices two years worth of high end draft capital. It’s possible, but I just think it is more likely the Jets really want Mayfield.
But all of this does seem to suggest the Jets have Darnold as the top rated quarterback in this class. If that is the case, then there is a chance they are willing to move up again to the second pick in order to get their #1 quarterback should the Browns take Allen.
As Cimini notes, it is unlikely a trade between the New York teams happens, but it shouldn’t be ruled out. The reason I have to say there is virtually no chance this trade happens is because what the Jets would in total have given up to get from #6 to #2 is basically unphathomable.
When the Jets moved from #6 to #3 I looked at how that trade faired in relation to similar quarterback trades. I estimated the Jets to end up with the 10th pick in the 2019 draft in order to do all the math, and as a result I approximated that the Colts profited 27.8 points of draft capital, according to the Chase Stuart chart, in their trade with the Jets, which is basically right in line with what the Browns got in the Carson Wentz trade.
However, if the Jets move up again from #3 to #2, well, we already know the minimum cost for such a move because the 9ers and Bears set the market value of such a trade last year during the draft. The Bears gave up #3, #67, #111, and their 2018 3rd rounder which turned into #70 to move up to #2.
If the Jets gave up a similar trade package, they would have to send the Giants #72, #107, and a 2019 3rd round pick which, if we use my estimate that the Jets will finish with the 10th worst record next season, will be the 74th pick. The Giants may even ask for more since Darnold is a better prospect than Trubisky was last year.
If the Jets do this trade, then in total, to go from #6 to #2, they will have given up 74.8 points of draft capital to end up with the 2nd pick, which is valued at 30.2. That means that other teams will have profited a total of 44.6 points of draft capital in their trades with the Jets. That is an astonishing amount of draft capital to relinquish.
When I looked at how the Jets Colts trade faired in relation to other quarterback trades, I calculated how much draft capital exchanged hands in each trade. The most lopsided trade by far, unsurprisingly, is the RGIII trade where the Rams profited 49.9 points of draft capital. The first pick is worth 34.6 points while the 21st pick is worth 15.2 points. The Rams basically created the 1st and 21st picks out in thin air in those trades.
If the Jets do this, the net draft capital they will have given away will be worth the 1st pick plus the 49th pick. The second most lopsided trade involves the Rams again, as they gave up essentially the same value as the #1 pick in order to go from #15 to #1 to draft Jared Goff.
The league will never see another RGIII package, in terms of the high end picks changing hands (three firsts and a second), unless Buffalo gets ridiculously desperate to convince Gettleman to trade with them. But when you just tally it up by face value, the Jets will have sent out the #6, three 2nd rounders, two 3rd rounders and a 4th rounder to get up to #2 should this happen.
I know Gettleman said you can’t get “too cute” with the second pick, but if he really is just going to take Barkley at #2, then he may as well just grab the extra mid round picks from the Jets and take Barkley at #3. I can’t see any reason why you wouldn’t do that if you were the Giants in such a scenario.
None of this is concrete, clearly. There is still time for Cleveland to decide Darnold is their guy, and we don’t even know that the Jets would be willing to give up what it will probably cost to go from #3 to #2. But if this does happen, the Jets will be the only team in Washington’s stratosphere in terms of what they were willing to part with in order to get the quarterback they so desperately coveted.
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