Every team has 10 games or less remaining in the regular season. We know the eight teams that will make the playoffs in the East, and the West is 10 teams for 8 spots, but really 9 teams for 8 spots, but probably we already know the 8. We’re just watching teams jockey for position (both in the playoffs and the lottery. What a time to be alive). So today I am going to lay out the matchups that I hope transpire for the playoffs.
A couple rules/criteria for the selection process:
- – The seedings I choose have to at least have a modicum of possibility to actually become reality. The more realistic, the better.
-I will be factoring in more than just the matchup on the court between the two teams. Additional considerations could be star power, storylines, personal interests.
-While this is mostly a first round exercise, there is a decent amount of consideration given to potential second round matchups. I suppose I could have listed this in the rule above.
EASTERN CONFERENCE
- 1. Toronto Raptors
8. Miami Heat
I was really, really tempted to make the Heat the 7 seed so we could get Stevens vs. Spo. However, Dwane Casey will be in the top two for me for Coach of the Year when I do my end of season awards, so we’re not exactly severely downgrading here.
I picked this matchup mostly for personal reasons and the benefits of having the Bucks as the 7 seed, which I will explain below. As a quasi Raptors fan (read: biggest Kyle Lowry fan you’ll ever know that’s unrelated to Mr. Lowry), I think Toronto will have an easier time with the Heat as opposed to the Bucks. We have enough data now to confidently assume that the Bucks length really bothers Toronto, and if Lowry and DeRozan do their annual playoff sucking, Giannis might just win such a matchup.
4. Philadelphia 76ers
5. Indiana Pacers
Yes. I want the 6ers to appear in two rounds and I think they should be able to beat the Pacers, especially with home-court. The 6ers are up to 5th in the league in Net Rating, while the Pacers are at 11th. Also, the 6ers Net Rating when Embiid is on the court is 11.1, which would easily rank first in the league.
I also don’t see how the Pacers have the foot speed to take advantage of the fact that the 6ers absolutely love ginormous lineups. Philly will utilize lineups with Embiid, Saric, Covington and Simmons on the court at the same time. And without Oladipo on the court, Indiana’s offense craters to a 103.7 mark, or roughly the same as the 26th ranked Orlando Magic.
I also personally want to see Myles Turner guard Embiid. I’m not saying it is going to go super well for Turner, maybe it will, maybe it won’t, but I just want to see it. I want to see what type of defensive upside we’re talking about here for Turner against probably the first team All-NBA center in a playoff matchup.
I also really want to see Oladipo in a situation where he gets all he can eat. The 6ers rank 4th in the NBA in defensive rating, so I imagine there will come a time in these games where Nate McMilan will just throw his hands up and say, “Alright dude, have at it.”
3. Cleveland Cavaliers
6. Washington Wizards
I am no LeBron fan, and I actually like John Wall and Bradley Beal. But after all the times we had to hear the Wizards proclaim the Cavs didn’t want to see them in the playoffs, or listen to Charles Barkley reiterate this ridiculous notion, I want LeBron to just sweep Washington straight out of the playoffs and onto a golf course. Just, bye.
And I want the Cavs to be the 3 seed in this scenario because regardless of who wins the 2-7 matchup, there is a juicy story line.
2. Boston Celtics
7. Milwaukee Bucks
In case you were wondering, ever since Jason Kidd was fired on January 22nd, the Bucks rank 9th in Net Rating. During that time, they are 11th in offense, 13th in defense, and have gone 16-12. It’s only 28 games, so take from it what you will, but Jason Kidd was the worst coach in the league and removing him has worked thus far.
Plus don’t you want to see how Stevens defends Giannis for an entire series? Think of all the ways Stevens might go about this. And all of those options need to be aggressive since the Celtics don’t have a big time shot blocker to sit back and wait for Giannis to launch for take off on dunk attempts.
And no matter who wins this series, the next one against the Cavs has a marquee story line. We either get LeBron vs Kyrie, or the wayyyy more cool LeBron vs Giannis. You’re straight up lying if you wanna try to convince me that out of any single individual matchup of two guys guarding each other that is possible to play out in the playoffs, Gianns against LeBron isn’t your top pick. We already saw LeBron vs Durant. Are you that tantalized by the prospect of watching Klay Thompson guard James Harden? There’s like, four dudes in the NBA genetically constructed to guard LeBron. Giannis is at the top of that list.
WESTERN CONFERENCE
- 1. Houston Rockets
8. Minnesota Timberwolves/Denver Nuggets
I would rather the Nuggets make the playoffs than the Wolves. I don’t need to see Wiggins brick his way to a bad Kobe Bryant impersonation. I don’t need to see KAT inexplicably get less than 18 shots a game (assuming Butler is back, if not, make that 20+). I don’t need to see Derrick Rose, hard stop.
Not when the alternative is Jokic dishing no-look passes that point guards don’t even try, let alone a 7-footer. Not when the alternative is Jamal Murray perhaps just raining threes. Not when the alternative is perhaps watching Paul Millsap play at a certain level we may never get to see Paul Millsap play at again.
But, the Nuggets won’t make the playoffs so I just want the Rockets to draw the Wolves so they can sweep them and rest everyone. The Rockets shoot lots of threes, and hit them quite frequently. Thibs thinks it’s the year 1994. Seriously, the difference couldn’t be any larger. The Rockets are first in the NBA in three point attempts per game, and the Wolves are last in the NBA in three point attempts per game. Do the math. Morey did.
4. Utah Jazz
5. Oklahoma City Thunder
My God. The contrast. Perhaps the most intricate, precise, exacting offensive team in the entire league against the team with Russell Westbrook and Carmelo Anthony. Yes, please, let me watch this visual asymmetry on opposite ends of the court for a whole series. The Thunder have a big four, at least in name power, with Westbrook, Melo, Paul George and Steven Adams. Can anyone that isn’t an NBA fan name a single player on Utah? Does anyone that isn’t an NBA fan know there’s even a Utah team? The Thunder are this compilation of offensive talents. The Jazz don’t have anyone like that (sorry, I’m not pronouncing Mitchell as arrived yet, but it’s pending).
Russell Westbrook attacks the rim on every dunk as if he is Kylo Ren, surrounded by the entire First Order artillery, when he demonstrably dictates that every last ounce of fire power – lasers, bombs, bigger bombs, cooler lasers – be fired at Luke Skywalker just standing there unarmed (this also works since the First Order absolutely unloads on Luke, just like Westbrook does when he dunks, but Skywalker remains, just like the rim). But for the entirety of this series, when Westbrook goes to dunk he will be met by Rudy Gobert attempting to block his rampage. If I could just pick any NBA player I wanted to try to block Westbrook at the rim when he tries to dunk, it would be Rudy Gobert.
I also think the Jazz are the superior team, and I want the Thunder to lose in the first round. If the Thunder lose in the first round, it increases the odds Paul George leaves. If Paul George leaves, it will probably be for the Lakers. I want Paul George to be a Laker.
3. Portland Trailblazers
6. New Orleans Pelicans
I love me a good point guard matchup, and Jrue holiday is not getting nearly as much national attention as he deserves for the quality of season he is having. I’m also looking forward to seeing Nurkic attempt to guard Anthony Davis. Nurkic’s value lies in his defense, and he is headed into free agency come July. His performance against Davis will directly impact his potential contract.
I’m not over here rooting for Nurkic to lose out on tens of millions of dollars as a result, but Anthony Davis is the elite offensive big man (well, or Towns), and seeing Nurkic against the highest level of opponent will determine his offers. Plus AD and Dame are two MVP candidates in the same series.
I also really, really want to see Blazers, Warriors second round. Talk about a point guard dual. I think Damian Lillard is the closest thing to Steph Curry that the NBA has to offer. Lillard has parking lot range and absolutely no conscious. He will pull up from anywhere, and when the ball is in the air you’re just kind of expecting it to go in. What he did to the Lakers in early March is downright disrespectful. He can get to the basket, he can drop dimes, and he is shooting 91% from the line.
2. Golden State Warriors
7. San Antonio Spurs
This is the only way we’re getting a Warriors, Spurs rematch. Who knows if Kawhi will be available, but I hope he is. He probably won’t be 100% if he does play, but I just want to see this. We were robbed of an entertaining Western Conference Finals last season because Kawhi went down three quarters into the first game. The Spurs were up, without looking, like 20 when it happened. The Spurs kind of know something about what to do against Golden State.
Pop and Kerr, for my money, are the two best coaches in the NBA. There’s like, four dudes, that are genetically designed to guard Kevin Durant. Kawhi Leonard is one of them. Oh, and if Curry really doesn’t play at all in this series, then both teams don’t have their best player, so it “evens out,” (not really since Kawhi is so much more important to the Spurs).
As a quasi Rockets fan (read: the biggest Chris Paul fan you’ll ever know that is unrelated to Mr. Paul) this is the most dangerous matchup for the Warriors en route to the Western Conference Finals.
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