Mid-Season NFL Power Rankings

1. Pittsburgh Steelers 6-2

The Steelers rank first in DVOA and rank 5^th in both offensive and defensive DVOA. In fact, they are the only team to rank in the top five in each. They also rank in the top ten in all of pass offense, rush offense, pass defense and rush defense DVOA. Their offensive line is 10^th in adjusted line yards and 1^st in adjusted sack rate. Their defensive line is 4^th in adjusted line yards and 5^th in adjusted sack rate. They sport a battle tested quarterback, the best running back, and the best receiver.

2. 2. Kansas City Chiefs 6-2

The Chiefs are 5^th in DVOA but have a much more drastic offensive/defensive split. They sit 2^nd in offensive DVOA but 25^th in defensive DVOA. They do have perhaps the second best QB/Coach duo in the NFL. They sit second in the AFC in +/- at +56, which also ranks them 4^th in the entire NFL.

3. 3. Seattle Seahawks 5-2

There is nothing I can point to here to really lay my claim for the Seahawks as the best team in the NFC. They do not have the best DVOA or +/- in their own division let alone the conference. Maybe I am stuck in the past giving this team the benefit of the doubt, but on a neutral field there is no team in the NFC I would bet on to beat the Seahawks. If the Chiefs don’t have the second best QB/Coach combo in the NFL, then Seattle does. They also have a loaded defense and the experience that the Eagles just can’t match. After addressing their offensive line before the trade deadline I expect the Seahawks to win their division and have a first round bye in the playoffs.

4. 4. Philadelphia Eagles 7-1

The Eagles have the best +/- in the NFL at +76 and rank 3^rd in DVOA. I’m not sure why they felt the need to address the running back position before the trade deadline instead of the cornerback position. Nonetheless, Carson Wentz has himself square in the MVP conversation and at 7-1 the Eagles should be able easily win their division, especially if Zeke remains suspended.  The loss of Jason Peters cannot be overstated enough, however.

5. 5. New England Patriots 6-2

The Patriots offensive/defense DVOA split is as extreme as you can possibly be. They rank 1^st in offensive DVOA and 32^nd in defensive DVOA, aka first and last, respectively.  They are 9^th in the NFL in +/- and a middling 15^th in DVOA overall. They just get the benefit of the doubt because they have Brady and The Hooded One.

6. 6. New Orleans Saints 5-2

After giving up a combined 65 points in their first two games, the Saints defense has clawed their way to a league average 16^th in DVOA. The Saints have the 5^th best +/- in the NFL and sit at 5^th in DVOA overall. The young talent on this defense is making this team a legit contender and their running game looks sustainable after the AP trade. The Saints actually lead the NFL in estimated wins.

7. 7. Los Angeles Rams 5-2

Believe it or not, the Rams have the second best +/- in the NFL at +74. They are a Cooper Kupp dropped pass in the end zone away from being 6-1 with a win over Seattle. The Rams actually sit second in DVOA. They did, however, have a very easy schedule prior to their bye week and have to play the Seahawks in Seattle next time. However, given injuries and suspensions, the Rams, at 5-2, have an inside track on an NFC wild card spot.

8. Minnesota Vikings 6-2

The Vikings have gotten 1.5 games from Sam Bradford, lost Dalvin Cook in the middle of game four, and effectively haven’t had Stefon Diggs for three games. Despite this, the Vikings are 6^th in +/- and 6^th in DVOA. They rank in the top ten in both offensive and defensive DVOA and sit at 6-2 with hopes of getting Teddy Bridgewater back in the near future.

9. 9. Jacksonville Jaguars 4-3

The Jaguars are third in the NFL in +/- and sit 7^th in DVOA. They made a move ahead of the deadline to address their last place run defense. The biggest thing holding this team back is Blake Bortles, but that isn’t news to anyone. Luckily this defense is incredible, as it leads the NFL in expected points contributed and is second in takeaways.

10. 10. Buffalo Bills 5-2

I have never understood the Bills desire to chase Tyrod Taylor out of town. Here is how he has faired since becoming the starter:

You may say the past year and a half show he isn’t that good, but what is their alternative? Taylor seems to be an average NFL starter, and the Bills now have a defense to compliment him and LeSean McCoy again after Rex Ryan came in and destroyed the defense for two seasons. The Bills are tied for the lowest amount of turnovers in the NFL, and they have the most takeaways. Buffalo just made a move ahead of the trade deadline to address the receiver position and appear poised to land a wild birth.

11. Baltimore Ravens 4-4

This next grouping of teams is so jumbled to me that I am basically putting the Ravens here by default. The Ravens are 13^th in +/-, 12^th in DVOA and 3^rd in defensive DVOA. They also are tied for first with the Bills for the most takeaways in the league.

12. 12. Houston Texans 3-4

The Texans just went toe-to-toe with Seattle in Seattle. There is definite regression looming here. As brilliant as Watson has been, his TD% this season is 9.31%. League average is 4.5%, Matt Ryan won MVP last year with a mark of 7.11%, and Aaron Rodgers’ career TD% is 6.39%. Will Fuller has also caught a TD on 31.8% of his targets. That ratio would have given Antonio Brown 49 TDs last season. The Texans are down Watt and Mercilus but as of now sit 12^th in +/- and 8^th in DVOA.

13. 13. Carolina Panthers 5-3

It actually pains me to put the Panthers this high, as I don’t really believe they’re this good. But considering the alternatives I just had to go this direction. The Panthers sit 15^th in +/- and 16^th in DVOA and have an impressive win in Foxborough. Cam Newton is unreliable as a passer but this defense should be able to keep them around in most games.

14. 14. Detroit Lions 3-4

After a hot start, the Lions’ defense has come back to reality as it was living off turnovers. This, of course, is unsustainable. The Lions sit at 14^th in +/- and 13^th in DVOA. They still sport a top ten defensive DVOA, as it ranks 7^th. They are tied for the 2^nd most takeaways in the NFL with 16. Detroit’s offensive line ranks 32^nd in adjusted line yards and 26^th in adjusted sack rate. Taylor Decker returned to practice today, which is phenomenal news.

15. 15. Los Angeles Chargers 3-5

Call me crazy but I think the Chargers are a top half NFL team. Their +/- is 18^th and they rank 22^nd in DVOA. However, they are 16^th in offensive DVOA and 17^th in defensive DVOA. This team puts heat on the opposing quarterback as they rank 6^th in adjusted sack rate. They have suffered heart breaking losses and did a good job keeping the Patriots’ red zone trips to field goal attempts. After their bye this week they get Denzel Perryman back to help boost their run defense.

16. 16. Tennessee Titans 4-3

The Titans +/- is -15, but this incorporates a -49 from two games Mariota either left early or missed completely. The Titans have beaten both the Seahawks and the Jaguars this season.

17. 17. Atlanta Falcons 4-3

I really want to rank the Falcons lower but can’t seem to put anyone else ahead of them. The Falcons are complete frauds. They rank 21^st in DVOA. They are a dropped Jordan Howard touchdown and a Golden Tate overturned touchdown plus 10 second run off rule away from being 2-5. They scored 7 points against the worst defense in football. Julio Jones is averaging 8 targets a game. What is so complicated about throwing to the ball to your best player a double-digit amount of times per game? Devonta Freeman has averaged 11 carries per game over the Falcons last three outings. What is so complicated about giving your best running back 17+ carries a game? What the hell is Sarkisian doing? Matt Ryan has come back to earth to be the normal Matt Ryan we’re used to getting year in and year out instead of the alien possessed (Kyle Shanahan possessed) quarterback that destroyed the NFL last season. This defense ranks 28^th in DVOA. They blew a 17 point home lead to the DOLPHINS!

18. 18. Denver Broncos 3-4

You may wonder how I can have the Broncos in the teens after they dropped three of their last four, but I don’t think the sky is falling. They still rank 2^nd in defensive DVOA. They are going to switch to Brock Osweiler, and that isn’t exactly exciting but he did help, in part, guide this team to the top seed in the AFC in 2015.

19. 19. Washington 3-4

Washington actually comes in at 14^th in DVOA, sporting the 12^th ranked offense and 13^th ranked defense. Their +/- sits at 22^nd. They won a road game against the Rams and handedly beat the Raiders. Their game against the Chiefs is closer than the score suggests, as the Chiefs scored a bogus defensive touchdown off Washington’s lateral play for the worst beat in Vegas history. Other than that, though, they barely beat the 9ers and have been decisively beaten by the Eagles twice and the Elliot Cowboys.

20. 20. Dallas Cowboys 4-3

This ranking has everything to do with Elliot being suspended. I think the Cowboys are about to be exposed as a middling team without their star running back. They are not the same offensive line that dominated the NFL last season. They have two new starters on the right side this year and it shows. Dallas ranks 21^st in adjusted line yards behind right tackle, and 18^th in adjusted line yards to the right end. Last year those numbers were 6^th and 10^th, respectively. I don’t think Alfred Morris or Darren McFadden, two vastly inferior talents to Zeke, are going to just step in and dominate like he does. With fewer yards being churned out on the ground, Dak will see defenses more concerned with the pass, and the Cowboys defense will be seeing the field more often. This defense already ranks 25^th in DVOA and I feel like it is going to be become worse with less rest.

23. 21. Cincinnati Bengals 3-4
26. The Bengals are 19^th in +/- and 23^rd in DVOA. They struggled to put away the Colts. In the past two weeks, A.J. Green has seen 14 targets, resulting in 68 yards and a touchdown. The Steelers defense has been lights out against receivers this year, but I don’t know what is so difficult to grasp about the concept of throwing it to your best player double digit times every single game. Maybe Bill Lazor and Steve Sarkisian run in the same circle.
28. 22. Oakland Raiders 3-5
31. What are the Raiders, really? They have the 31^st ranked defense by DVOA, they can’t run the ball, and Amari Cooper can’t seem to catch a cold (and I’m a huge Cooper fan). They did win in Tennessee, but their other wins are murdering the Jets and a home game against the Chiefs. Beating the Chiefs is an accomplishment to be proud of, but every divisional home team has a chance, except the Browns.
33. 23. Green Bay Packers 4-3

It is weird to figure out where to put the Packers without Aaron Rodgers. In their first game without him where Hundley got to practice with the first team the Packers put up a fight against the Saints. There is still plenty of talent on this roster, I just don’t know how far Hundley can take them.

24. Tampa Bay Buccaneers 2-5

The Buccaneers defense is horrendous. They are 30^th in DVOA, 24^th in points per game, and 25^th in expected points contributed. One of their two wins was against the Bears where Glennon threw two interceptions including a pick-six, and the other was a two point victory over the Giants that required a game winning field goal as time expired.

25. 25. Chicago Bears 3-5

The Bears have been ravaged by defensive injuries, but I have not been impressed by Trubisky, and the organization is doing him no favors with the collection of receivers he is forced to throw to. The Bears are giving up 15.75 points at home compared to 27.75 on the road, although those numbers are somewhat skewed by a defensive touchdown and two return touchdowns in two road games. The Bears are a dropped touchdown pass away from a week 1 victory over the Falcons and a 4-4 record, however.

26. 26. New York Jets 3-5

The Jets are so bad that they can’t even tank correctly. All their effort has gotten them to the 25^th +/-, 26^th DVOA and too low a pick for Rosen or Darnold.

27. 27. New York Giants 1-6

Nothing has gone right for the Giants. The offensive line can’t block. The running backs can’t run. They lost OBJ and Marshall for the season and Shepard has missed two games due to injury. They have now suspended each of their starting corners at separate times. And, McAdoo’s hair.

28. 28. Miami Dolphins 4-3

The Dolphins are the perfect example of why Bill Parcells is wrong when he says you are what you are. Despite a 4-3 record the Dolphins are 28^th in +/-, worse than the Jets, and 31^st in DVOA, also worse than the Jets. The Dolphins pulled the same act last season. They went 10-6 while posting a 7.5 pythagorean win expectation, went 8-2 in one score games, 1-5 vs. teams over .500, and 9-1 vs. teams under .500. I just don’t think the Dolphins have the same fake lasting power that they did a season ago.

29. 29. San Francisco 49ers 0-8

It is weird to see an 0-8 team not be ranked last, but the Cardinals lost Palmer, and I don’t know how Garoppolo will affect this team moving forward. I really hope the 9ers don’t trot out Jimmy until after their bye. The Hoyer/Beathard 9ers sit 31^st in +/- and 29^th in DVOA. They may have not won a game, but I don’t believe they are the worst team as is, and Garoppolo can only help them.

30. 30. Arizona Cardinals 3-4

The Cardinals’ quarterback for the rest of the season is going to be Drew Stanton. Drew Stanton. With Carson Palmer, the Cardinals managed to achieve the 29^th +/- and 28^th DVOA. Now their quarterback is Drew Stanton.

31. 31. Cleveland Browns 0-8

The Browns are 30^th in +/-, 29^th in DVOA, and have committed a league leading 21 turnovers. That’s all I have to say.

32. 32. Indianapolis Colts 2-6

Everyone will scream at me that the Colts beat the Browns and the 9ers and should be ranked higher. But all those same people know the saying any given Sunday, and that one game is a small sample size. Despite these wins, the Colts are last in the NFL in +/- at -104 (the 9ers are -86). The Colts rank 32^nd in DVOA. The 9ers also landed Garoppolo, so if there were to be a rematch, are we sure Indy would win again?