My first foray into the TGFBI industry league fared well enough; I finished 58th overall (out of 198) and 3rd in League 2, behind Fangraphs writer and projection-system-extraordinaire Ariel Cohen and 2018 TGFBI Grand Champion Clay Link, of Rotowire.
The top of my draft turned into a dumpster fire relatively quickly last year, despite Mookie falling to me at #7, which may have been the best (and easiest) pick of my draft. Donaldson, Buxton, and Knebel returned next to nothing, but I was still able to grind my way to a 3rd place finish. Considering the circumstances, I am happy with that. Also, and I guess it goes without saying, 2018 Manager Kevin really hated 2018 Front Office/Player Acquisition Kevin.
Some of my picks that did payoff:
- Charlie Morton – Round 13, 187 overall
- Cesar Hernandez – Round 14, 204 overall (does picking Cesar ever not work out?)
- Aaron Hicks – Round 15, 217 overall
- Matt Chapman – Round 18, 264 overall
- Joc Pederson – Round 21, 307 overall
- Josh Hader – Round 22, 324 overall
Hopefully I can hit on a few more of my early rounders this year. I mean, I almost have to right? Right?
2019 Draft Intro and Picks 1-5
For this year’s TGFBI draft, I am basically going to continue with my overall strategy from last year, while applying some of the lessons I learned from my draft debacle. There a couple format changes to this year’s TGFBI. Without getting to into the weeds, changes include a switch to two catchers, no trading, and no injured list. No trading and no IL means that the draft is even more important as you can only put injured players on your bench and have to rely on the waiver wire (which will be very dry, 15 teams x 30 rounds) for player replacement.
Anyway, let’s get into the picks. I’ll discuss my strategy and thought process along the way.
Round 1, Pick 8 – Christian Yelich, OF MIL
- I never expected to by the guy taking Yelich in the middle of the first round, but here we are. In short, I wanted someone who can contribute across the board, and Yelich is that guy. There is a very good chance Yelich will be able to positively contribute in all five offensive categories. And while there is evidence that a lot of Yelich’s performance from last year is real, I don’t need him to replicate his MVP season to make this pick a success.
Round 2, Pick 23 – Kris Bryant, 3B/OF CHC
- Reportedly, Bryant is fully healthy and ready for the 2019 season. If that’s the case, and it looks like it is, I am happy to take the 27 year old former MVP at a discount here. The positional flexibility doesn’t hurt either.
Round 3, Pick 38 – Rhys Hoskins, OF PHI
- Hoskins is my type of hitter as I love the dependability of his plate discipline. Additionally, he’s already in a great park, has an improved lineup around him (Segura, McCutcheon, Bryce??), and will have multiple position eligibilities once he plays enough games at first. What’s not to like?
Round 4, Pick 53 – Carlos Correa, SS HOU
- I fretted over this one for a bit, but in the end it basically came down to these factors:
- This is an upside pick as much as it is anything. Correa hasn’t been the most reliable when it comes to performance or health, but I still think there’s a decent chance he turn in 2nd or 3rd round value given his uber-tools. Given the discount from some of his ADPs in previous years, I feel fairly confident that this pick won’t be a complete bust.
Round 5, Pick 68 – Blake Treinen, RP OAK
- Last year I wanted to lock down a couple top-end closers to avoid churning and burning FAAB on bad relievers who were getting save chances. While that strategy only half worked (Knebel/Kimbrel), I’m willing to give it another go, if only because I hate the reliever add/drop game.
- Treinen racked up 38 saves and 100 Ks with ridiculous ratios in 2018, and while he won’t repeat that performance this year, I like his chances of maintaining elite-closer status as much as anyone. Also, I’m still without a starting pitcher, Treinen’s elite strikeout numbers will help make up for the rag-tag SP squad I plan on assembling.
To be continued…
Stats courtesy of Fangraphs.