TGFBI Part 3 – The Final Installment
Round 1, Pick 7 – Mookie Betts, OF BOS
Round 2, Pick 24 – Josh Donaldson, 3B TOR
Round 3, Pick 37 – Byron Buxton, OF MIN
Round 4, Pick 54 – Craig Kimbrel, RP BOS
Round 5, Pick 67 – Justin Turner, 3B LAD
Round 6, Pick 84 – Corey Knebel, RP MIL
Round 7, Pick 97 – Yoan Moncada, 2B CHW
Round 8, Pick 114 – David Price, SP BOS
Round 9, Pick 127 – Gregory Polanco, OF PIT
Round 10, Pick 144 – Greg Bird, 1B NYY
Round 11, Pick 157 – Carlos Santana, 1B PHI
Round 12, Pick 174 – Evan Gattis, C/DH HOU
Round 13, Pick 187 – Charlie Morton, SP HOU
Round 14, Pick 204 – Cesar Hernandez, 2B PHI
Round 15, Pick 217 – Aaron Hicks, OF NYY
Round 16, Pick 234 – Marcus Semien, SS OAK
Round 17, Pick 247 – Jordan Montgomery, SP NYY
Round 18, Pick 264 – Matt Chapman, 3B OAK
In the final ten rounds its time for me to round out my roster and hopefully plus any major holes I created through the first 18 rounds.
Round 19, Pick 277 – Ketel Marte, SS ARI
NFBC ADP: 343
Round 20, Pick 294 – Brandon Drury, 2B NYY
NFBC ADP: 370.2
These two swing changers have considerable upside despite being drafted as infield depth. Both players should be eligible at multiple positions as Marte is likely to begin the season as the Diamondbacks’ starting second-basemen, while Drury is likely to open as the Yankees starting third-basemen. Fangraphs’ Jeff Sullivan wrote a piece about Marte’s potential to break out, and I believe Drury’s average-ish bat-to-ball skills paired with some new-found loft could lead to better-than-expected production as well.
Round 21, Pick 307 – Joc Pederson, OF LAD
NFBC ADP: 384.7
Joc is the player that I just can’t quit. Though his playing time is a little more up-in-the-air this year, I still believe in his talent to win out.
Here are the positives that I am concentrating on with this pick:
- Career low K% of 21.1% in 2017.
- #32 average exit velocity in 2017 (100 BBE min)
- 107 wRC+ against righties in 2017
- Career 126 wRC+ against righties
- Dedication to hitting fly balls.
Round 22, Pick 324 – Josh Hader, RP MIL
NFBC ADP: 303.4
Hader was dominant out of Milwaukee’s bullpen in 2017 racking up K’s at a rate of 12.84 K/9. A full MLB season probably means multiple inning stints and 100+ Ks over the course of the year. I ’m not going to count on it but I wouldn’t hate if they gave him a shot in the rotation should a spot open up either.
Round 23, Pick 337 – Chad Kuhl, SP PIT
NFBC ADP: 388.8
Kuhl has more upside than he’s given credit for; a 9.13 2nd half K/9 rate speaks to some of that. You may also be surprised that among pitchers with 150+ innings in 2017, Kuhl had the 5th highest average fastball velocity (95.7 MPH).
Round 24, Pick 354 – Vince Velasquez, SP PHI
NFBC ADP: 358.2
No one has ever questioned Velasquez’s stuff. I’m hoping last year’s hand surgery can help him get back to his 2016 levels.
Round 25, Pick 367 – Carlos Rodon, SP CHW
NFBC ADP: 368.9
Shoulder surgery can be scary for a pitcher, but my staff needs all the upside it can get and at this price I don’t have to blink. With 5 DL spots available I can tuck Rodon neatly away until he’s ready.
Round 26, Pick 384 – Nate Jones, RP CHW
NFBC ADP: 375.2
Joakim Soria and Juan Minaya may have more “closer experience”, but Jones is the best arm in this bullpen and I like his chances of ending up in the closer role at some point this season.
Round 27, Pick 397 – Lonnie Chisenhall, OF CLE
NFBC ADP: 391.3
I wanted to grab a backup outfielder before this draft was over, and I was happy to get Chisenhall here. Chisenhall will be in a good lineup and has been solid against righties in his career (103 wRC+). If he can keep any of the gains he made in 2017 (120 wRC+ vs R) this will be a bargain.
Round 28, Pick 414 – Emilio Pagan, RP OAK
NFBC ADP: 543.1
I was hoping Dominic Leone would make it back to me here, but alas he was gobbled up two picks earlier. Making it even more painful, Cardinals President of Baseball Operations John Mozeliak would go on to say only days later that Leone would likely open the season as the teams closer.
All that being said, I like Pagan, as he posted a 10.01 K/9 with an ERA of 3.22 and a FIP of 3.28 in what was his rookie season.
So that’s it. All-in-all I would call this a successful draft. I set out to draft a well-rounded, top-tier offense, and that goal was achieved. My pitching staff leaves much to be desired, but I am confident I can get it where it needs to be through in-season moves.
Below is my complete roster; I have preemptively moved Justin Turner and Carlos Rodon to DL spots.
C Gattis, Evan
1B Bird, Greg
2B Moncada, Yoan
3B Donaldson, Josh
SS Semien, Marcus
CI Santana, Carlos
MI Hernandez, Cesar
OF Betts, Mookie
OF Buxton, Byron
OF Hicks, Aaron
OF Pederson, Joc
OF Polanco, Gregory
UT Chapman, Matt
UT Marte, Ketel
BN Drury, Brandon
BN Chisenhall, Lonnie
DL Turner, Justin
P Hader, Josh
P Jones, Nate
P Kimbrel, Craig
P Knebel, Corey
P Kuhl, Chad
P Montgomery, Jordan
P Morton, Charlie
P Pagan, Emilio
P Price, David
P Velasquez, Vince
DL Rodon, Carlos