2018 NBA Free Agency Thoughts

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And we’re off.  2018 NBA Free Agency has begun and it has not let us down in the theatrics department.  NBA free agency does consistently deliver interesting player movement and headlines, and we received a huge flurry of them in the beginning hours in 2018.  Here are some of my thoughts on what has happened thus far.

Paul George Gonna Paul George

This has been talked about a lot so I don’t wanna go too in depth here, but I don’t get any of Paul George’s thinking.  Last year he forced his way out of Indiana, which eliminated his chances of getting a $220 million contract.  He said he wanted to play for the Lakers, but then decided to not even take a meeting with the franchise.

He, presumably, has decided to hitch his star to Russell Westbrook instead of LeBron James.  Further more, instead of taking the full five year max, or taking a two plus one deal to return to the market once eligible for the 10 year veteran max, George took a three plus one to stay in OKC through his prime.

The only logical conclusion is George has developed a strong bond with Westbrook and thoroughly enjoyed his time in the Thunder organization.  That’s fine.  It’s his life, he can do whatever he wants.  He just didn’t use any of his leverage to maximize his self worth.

This is an absolute home run in the aggregate by Sam Presti.  Presti took the gamble on a disgruntled star who let everyone know he was headed to the Lakers once he reached free agency.  Not only did George not leave for L.A., but he took the most team friendly contract option out of the three possibilities.

Speaking of Disgruntled Stars Demanding To Be a Laker

I said this on twitter; Paul George opting to stick with the Thunder is going to increase other teams’ level of comfort in trading for Kawhi and trying to convince him not to flee to the Lakers next summer.  The Thunder sold George on his superstar teammate and the culture of the organization.  I think this opens up some more teams having internal conversations about rolling the dice on making an offer on Kawhi.

Cause That’s My DJ

We all know that tampering happens so this isn’t exactly a news flash.  However, DeAndre Jordan opting out of his $24 million player option to then sign for one year at that exact value with the team everyone in the world knew he wanted to play for is definitive proof that tampering exists and this deal was prearranged.  I mean come on.  And what are the odds the league will investigate and then fine the Mavs $500,000 like they did the Lakers, who didn’t even end up getting Paul George? (0%)

The Pacers The Pacers the Pacers

You must have known I would bring up the Pacers considering my full on obsession with their cap possibilities.  After guaranteeing Bogdanovic’s contract the team decided to give Doug McDermott $22 million, fully guaranteed, over three years.  I don’t get the logic behind doing both of these things.  It wasn’t better to waive Bogdanovic, signed McDermott anyway, and use the Bogdanovic money to help pursue Aaron Gordon, or get a guy locked into a multi-year deal at a bargain rate?

Unless the Pacers waive Collison, or find a way to dump either Cory Joseph or Thaddeus Young, they are probably out of the Aaron Gordon sweepstakes.  Perhaps they will kick the tires on Julius Randle or Tyreke Evans, but they have limited their flexibility for this summer.

On the bright side, however, as you can see from the tweet above, McDermott is a knock down shooter, and no team can ever have too many of those guys.  He helps Indiana’s spacing, but as I talked about in my piece for NBA Canada, what the Pacers need are more play makers to help Oladipo, and McDermott is a play finisher.

The Sun Comes Up Tomorrow

Nothing about Trevor Ariza signing with the Suns makes sense to me.  Ariza agreed to a one-year, $15 million contract to relocate from the Desert of Texas to the Desert of Arizona.  Maybe it’s an “Ariza”/”Arizona” they’re kinda similar thing?  Yea, probably not.

From the Rockets’ side of things, Ariza was their best 3 and D player, and is actually one of the best perimeter defenders in the NBA.  Ariza did a credible job of defending Kevin Durant in the Western Conference Finals.  The overlooked aspect as to why Houston was so good this past season is they were an incredible defensive team.  Ariza was a key cog in that.  He could credibly switch across multiple positions and provide a high level of defense.

For Houston to lose Ariza is a massive blow to their chances in a rematch with Golden State.  I can’t overstate that enough.

From Ariza’s side of this, he left the second best team in the NBA to join the lottery bound Suns, and only got one year of guaranteed money for it?  Normally when a player leaves a contender for a not-even-close-to-a-contender, it’s for a massive payday.

And the Suns are bringing in Ariza for one year because..?  They are going to be in the lottery, despite any illusions of grandeur it appears the team has.  And if you wanted Ariza so badly why didn’t you try to lock him up for three years?  This was a better use of your cap space than trying to get someone younger locked into a bargain rate for a few years?

Not that I think you can have too many wings, because you can’t, but what about Mikal Bridges?  Isn’t him building chemistry with Booker, Jackson, and Ayton important?  I can see if the Suns had kept Zhaire Smith bringing in Ariza since Smith is raw and could be seasoned for the year Ariza is in town, but one of the biggest selling points to Mikal was that he is a plug and play 3 and D wing.

And if Phoenix is gunning for the playoffs, now that they’re capped out who exactly do they think is starting at point guard for them?  Brandon Knight?  Yea, good luck making the playoffs in the West.

And where the hell was the rest of the league.  How bout the Pacers, a team actually trying to win, instead of throwing $22 million at McDermott throw $25 over two years to Ariza?  Or something similar, I dunno, nor do I care.  You’re telling me not a single team attempting to be competitive (that will actually be competitive) in 2018-2019 had any interest in Ariza?

The explanation for all this (except for why Ariza actually picked Phoenix) is that new Rockets owner Tilman Fertitta clearly refused to match that $15 million offer, I would assume for tax reasonings, because his net worth is approximately between $2.4-$2.7 billion, and he invested $2.2 billion in buying the team.

And Suns owner Robert Sarver must have come down with a mandate to be as competitive as possible this coming season.

Good ownership is the single greatest advantage in professional sports.

The Warriors Did Nothing and Won

The easy early winners of the 2018 NBA Free Agency are the Warriors.  Between Paul George deciding to not even attempt to create a super team in Los Angeles with LeBron and Kawhi, and then Ariza leaving Houston for the lottery bound Suns, the Warriors path to a 3-peat just got a lot easier.

We’re in the Red

I could spend plenty of time on how Denver getting into their current tax situation was a self inflicted disaster, but let’s just talk about what to do to get out of this predicament.

There has been lots of talk about the Nuggets willingness to attach a first round pick to some combination of Wilson Chandler, Kenneth Faried, and Darrell Arthur, to get below the luxury tax for this coming season.  All three of those contracts are expiring deals.

And that is exactly why Denver should not move them.  What Denver needs to do is get off of Mason Plumlee.  At present, the Nuggets are about $19.7 million over the tax line, and will likely end up around $24 million over the tax line.  That is going to incur a nearly $60 million tax payment.

Plumlee, unlike Chandler, Faried, and Arthur, has two years left on his deal.  Plumlee is set to make $12.9 million this year and $14 million next year.  Shedding the $12.9 million this year will get the Nuggets down to about $11 million over the tax, lessening their tax payment to $27.5 million.

While moving Chandler or Faried plus Arthur would clear about $20 million salary, getting Plumlee off the books for next year is very advantageous.  If Plumlee is gone, then with the expiring deals of Chandler, Faried, and Arthur, plus the fact the Nuggets could decline Millsap’s team option, Denver could have around $30 million in space in the summer of 2019 to to chase a max free agent to complete a five man unit with Nikola Jokic, Jamal Murray, Gary Harris, and Michael Porter Jr.

Murray is due for a raise in the summer of 2020, so 2019 is Denver’s last chance to chase, let’s say, Jimmy Butler.  If Denver desperately wanted to further decrease their tax bill this season after dumping Plumlee, they could stretch Arthur and it wouldn’t be the end of the world.  He has a salary of $7.46 million for this coming season, so stretching him would save almost $5 million in salary, $12.5 million in luxury tax, and only cost $2.5 million against the books in the 2019 and 2020.

The Money Went Fast

Players and agents were smart to grab deals as quickly as possible.  Contracts were handed out fast and now almost all of the money has dried up.  With teams like Phoenix and Dallas now capped out, there are barely any destinations that can offer big money.

This worked out to the Raptor’s advantage, as they are bringing Fred VanVleet back on a two-year deal since Phoenix brought in Trevor Ariza instead of making a run at the restricted free agent point guard.

The Magic and Lakers may end up receiving good fortunate like the Raptors due to this.  Gordon may still command a large contract from Orlando, but Dallas, and Indiana making other signings have taken away potential suitors, at least while the Lakers and 6ers chase LeBron.

The Lakers may get extremely lucky and end up bringing Randle back on his qualifying offer.

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