2021 NFL Mock Draft 4.0

The Final Mock Draft. Hope you enjoy.

#1 Jacksonville Jaguars – QB Trevor Lawrence, Clemson

You don’t need me to explain that the Jaguars are going to draft Trevor Lawrence.

#2 New York Jets – QB Zach Wilson, BYU

This seems like a done deal.

#3 San Francisco 49ers (F/MIA/HOU) – QB Trey Lance, North Dakota State

Until the words “the San Francisco 49ers select Mac Jones” come out of Goodell’s mouth, I’m not going to believe this trade was for Jones. The issue around the “reporting” on this pick is the perfect example of how “league sources” and “league insiders” gets spun into actual reporting. I don’t care that Schefter or Rapoport talked to five dudes on AFC teams and they all *think* Shanahan is after Jones. Go ask someone in Levi Stadium.

The reality is I don’t believe Shanahan or Lynch have told anyone else in the world who they’re taking, save maybe the owner. If you cherry pick look at some Shanahan quotes over the years you can try piecing together what he is looking for. For instance, here he is talking about how a running quarterback completely opens up your offense merely from the threat of the zone-read, and how defenses can no longer play “11 against 10.”

Then there’s Kyle saying in 2017, on the topic of elite arm talent, “[y]ou’re always looking for one of those seven throwers on the planet, whatever that number is. I’m guessing there’s only around seven. I hope to get one of those seven guys, but if you don’t you got to find other ways to win.”

Finding other ways to win is an important piece of the puzzle. A lot of the theory for why San Francisco is going to draft Jones is because he “fits the mold” of a Shanahan quarterback a la Kirk Cousins and Matt Ryan. This, conveniently, ignores that the Shanahans took the league by storm with the zone-read in RGIII’s rookie season, or that Kyle’s dad Mike was salivating over Jay Cutler ahead of the 2006 draft, or that Kyle’s dad Mike, ya know, like, won two Super Bowls with John Elway. But what do details ever matter?

Kyle is smart enough to know that it’s not about the quarterback fitting your system but about constructing your system based on your quarterback’s strengths. Cousins and Ryan succeeded with Shanahan because he leaned into their talents as opposed to asking them to be someone they’re not.

As you read this next quote, bare in mind that Shanahan recently lost to Patrick Mahomes in a Super Bowl, and that this quote came on the heels of the 9ers losing to Buffalo in December in a game where Josh Allen went 32/40 for 375 yards and 4 touchdowns.

“I evaluate quarterbacks in terms of trying to find people who can have a chance to be one of those elite-type guys, and there’s a lot of different ways to do it. I don’t think you have one certain type you’re looking for. You’re just trying to find a guy who is better than about 98 percent of people on this planet.. and when you find that, you get him, and you adjust to him.”

Do you really think Shanahan sold the farm to go get an immobile quarterback with average arm strength when this is his one chance to shoot for the moon? What does Shanahan really want? Well John Beck said, among other things; smart, quick processor, in-game communication, somebody that can drive a ball downfield, and then within space.

Benjamin Solak did a fantastic job breaking down how each of Jones, Lance, and Justin Fields fit into the 9ers offense. Basically, they all do for certain aspects, but the one part of the Shanahan offense that probably will never go away is the quick game, and Lance is the best match of the three. Take that for whatever it’s worth, but based on everything above I truly believe this is Lance (which just ensured it will not be Lance).

#4 Atlanta Falcons – TE Kyle Pitts, Florida

I don’t think the Falcons are going to end up trading this pick, which I wrote about here. In short, I don’t believe any team will ultimately pay the bounty in order to secure QB4. That leaves Atlanta deciding between Pitts or taking a quarterback themselves.

There’s been a little more noise in the media lately that the Falcons are indeed taking a good, hard look at the quarterbacks. They’re attended pro days and second pro days in person. Even Arthur Blank did a public interview and covered enough ground you can create any take away you’re looking for in what he said.

As I mentioned while looking at the trade market for this pick, those I would deem reliable reporters say Atlanta would take the “right” quarterback here, but won’t force it. Your guess is as good as mine as to who the “right” one is, but there is some whispers Fontenot likes Lance. However, Fontenot also logged 18 years in the Saints organization, much of that spent repeatedly watching the team go all in on maximizing the Drew Brees window as he entered his twilight years (though they reportedly were itching to draft Mahomes before getting sniped by the Chiefs, so interpret both factoids however you please).

Kyle Pitts is the near-unanimous top non-quarterback in this class, and Arthur Smith ran more two tight end sets last year than any other team.

#5 Cincinnati Bengals – WR Ja’Marr Chase, LSU

I’m excited to see who Cincinnati takes here as a way to catch a glimpse into their team building philosophy. The reporting on this pick typically falls into three buckets; “they haven’t decided yet,” “they’re going to take Chase,” “I just have a hard time believing they wouldn’t take the left tackle.” I put more faith in the first two, as the “difficult time believing” is a personal anecdote from the individual saying it, not sourced information.

Assuming Pitts is gone we all know the two options. There’s been enough consistent smoke it’ll be Chase that I’m willing to bet it’s actually fire.

• The Dolphins, though, were looking for a way to stay closer to where they were originally picking, which led to this becoming what was essentially a three-team trade. And Miami needed a partner that would keep the talks in confidence. So Grier called the Eagles, who owned the sixth pick, a little more than two weeks ago to ask if they would be interested in moving back to 12 if the deal with the 49ers went through. Philly said yes, and the Dolphins told the Eagles they’d circle back. Then Grier and Eagles GM Howie Roseman chipped away at the parameters of a second-order trade.

• In doing that, Miami was in a position knowing quarterbacks likely would go 1-2-3-4, which would give the Dolphins the second pick of nonquarterbacks in the draft, while keeping the extra first-rounder for 2023.

• The Eagles worked exclusively with the Dolphins, and Roseman had to keep the trade under wraps in the two-plus weeks in between to allow for the bang-bang nature of how it eventually would go down.

Perhaps quarterbacks won’t to 1-2-3-4 after all, but Grier worked on locking in the 6th pick for two weeks over a month in advance of the draft. I’m willing to bet there’s three non-quarterbacks on Miami’s board that they’re insistent on getting their hands on. Trading with the 9ers ensured quarterbacks going 1-2-3, and trading with the Eagles ensures getting one of Miami’s big three, whoever they are.

For what it’s worth, I think the three are Pitts, Chase, and Smith, probably in that order. Smith was a hot name to connect with Miami beginning somewhere in November/December. For awhile it persisted, now the trails gone cold. We literally just saw this last year with a different Alabama propsect. #TankforTua went on for months and months, but once it became lying season the Dolphins were all of a sudden going to re-tank for Lawrence, make a run at trading up for Burrow, or actually draft Herbert over Tua. Of course, that was all bullshit and they drafted Tua. So, for my money, this is all bullshit and Miami made sure they stayed in range to get Smith (assuming Chase and Pitts are gone).

#7 New England Patriots (F/DET) – QB Justin Fields, Ohio State


Detroit Receives: #15, #46, 2022 first
New England Receives: #7, #153

We can get to the math when we cover Detroit’s selection. As for the Patriots, this is self explanatory. There’s debate as to whether or not Belichick will really consolidate draft capital, including leveraging the future, in order to move up the board since it cuts against the very fiber of his nature. Well, two things. First, the spending spree signals not only does Bill have no plans on picking as high as 15th ever again, but that he is willing to operate differently under certain circumstances.

Second, how many times over the years have you heard “we’re going to do what’s in the best interest of the New England Patriots” from Belichick? Normally, it’s in regards to selling off a player a year too early as opposed to a year too late, or letting someone like Darrelle Revis walk in free agency. The foundation of the concept is the same; long term viability. I have no idea how much longer Belichick intends to coach, but the best thing long term for the Patriots is to get Justin Fields, sticker price be damned. After 20 years of the most successful coach-organization marriage in league history, you’d think Bill wants to leave this team with the new quarterback already on the roster.

#8 Carolina Panthers – OT Penei Sewell, Oregon

Carolina, like the rest of the NFL, has put it out into the ether that they are “very open to moving back.” They do have picks to recoup, but in this scenario, where Sewell just falls into their laps, I don’t think they find an offer that entices them enough to pass. Whoever the quarterback ends up being long term, Darnold or otherwise, they’ll at least be protected on the left.

#9 Denver Broncos – OL Rashawn Slater, Northwestern

It already didn’t look like Denver was going to take a quarterback before the Bridgewater trade, so it’s just call it less likely now. If the right one falls they’d probably still pounce, but your guess is as good as mine as to which one is their preference. I don’t, however, believe it’s Jones, who is the one who falls in this scenario.

I think Denver would prefer to trade back if the board falls this way, but of course it takes two to tango. I’d say the most likely trade partners are Philadelphia, the Clippers Chargers, Washington, and Chicago. Philadelphia allegedly wants to move back into the top ten, presumably to jump Dallas for Surtain. However, it seems more likely the Eagles would want to trade down. The Chargers figure to want to get Sewell or Slater, but will Denver deal within the division? Washington or Chicago would have to love Mac Jones and offer enough to get Denver to bail.

Paton talked about just taking the best player and leaving the entire draft with a bunch of talented football players. Slater may be the highest rated player on their board under this pretense, and like Carolina before them, whoever the long term quarterback is will be protected.

#10 Dallas Cowboys – CB Patrick Surtain II, Alabama

At this point, this might be the most common team-player pairing outside the top two. Need, value, and scheme fit perfectly align. Dallas, like everyone else, is “interested in moving down,” but with both Slater and Sewell off the board it’s hard to forecast who would be eager enough to move up.

#11 New York Giants – Edge Kwity Paye, Michigan

So we all know Gettleman is full of shit when he says he might trade down, right? Good, glad we get that settled.

Anyway, Gettleman has a clear pattern when drafting. He is supremely confident in his own evaluations, leading him to take who he believes is the best player. He sort of drafts for need but within the confines of certain positions. We all know he likes his hog mollies, so the trenches are always an option, but he has also routinely spent premium picks of pass catchers and the secondary.

However, for whatever reason, I really don’t think he’s going to take a receiver here, especially if it’s Smith that gets to him. I don’t think he’s going to view receiver as a big enough need to pull the trigger.

There’s something about putting Paye here that makes me queazy. I dunno, I just don’t see it. I don’t like any of the edge’s fits here other than Ojulari but with his degenerative knee issue popping up I expect him to slide. This is the first pick where I don’t feel good about it at all.

#12 Chicago Bears (F/PHI/MIA/SF) – QB Mac Jones, Alabama


Philadelphia Receives: #20, #82, 2022 first
Chicago Receives: #12

I believe Ryan Pace is going to do something aggressive on Thursday. I don’t love this match (Jones and Chicago) but Pace needs anything to point to in order to rationalize him not losing his job. “Hey, Jones was pretty good after we benched Dalton, let’s just see this through!”

Also, if this doesn’t do the trick in salvaging Pace’s job, then not having a 2022 first rounder won’t be his problem.

Regardless if the Bears are able to come up for a quarterback here or not, I think this trade pairing has a lot of potential. I believe Pace is likely to leverage next year’s first in order to try to save his job, and Roseman is always open to trading. Plus, this would give the Eagles at least three firsts in 2022, with the potential of a fourth, providing them with plenty of ammo to go get a new quarterback should they deem it necessary.

Also, in a world where one of the five quarterbacks gets outside the top 9 and New England has already moved up for one, Chicago can aim to trade with Philadelphia knowing that the Cowboys at 10 and Giants at 11 are unlikely to trade with Washington.

#13 Los Angeles Chargers – WR Jaylen Waddle, Alabama

If Sewell or Slater get here then that’s the pick. It also stands to reason the Chargers would be willing to move up to secure one of them. Telesco is willing to go get someone he truly believes in. However, even with the offensive line being an obvious need, the team is allegedly bullish on Trey Pipkins. This, of course, could be a lie, and just because they’re bullish doesn’t mean they’d pass on Sewell or Slater, or even Darrisaw for that matter.

With such obvious needs on the offensive line and at corner, why take Waddle? Because Herbert. The Bills brought in Diggs to really round out their receiver corps and Josh Allen exploded. Bringing in Waddle would put the Chargers’ three-wide set at Keenan Allen, Waddle, and Mike Williams. The route technician, the game altering speed, and the downfield/jump ball specialist. It’s a deep receiver class, sure, but it’s also considered a deep offensive tackle class and Los Angeles may just have Waddle graded too far above everyone else available to pass. Let’s also keep in mind the Chargers are going to have to keep up with the Chiefs twice a year for the next decade and a half (at least).

It’s also possible if the board breaks this way the Chargers simply have Waddle rated too far above everyone else to justify passing.

#14 Minnesota Vikings – OL Alijah Vera-Tucker, USC

I’d expect Minnesota to try to trade back. Spielman has traded down 24 times during his Vikings tenure (not counting the 2020 draft, which included a trade down in the first), and Minnesota is without their second round pick. I can’t find a clean pairing, though the Raiders may want to sneak right in front of Detroit in order to snag Parsons. There’s reports Gruden loves the Penn State product, and Las Vegas does have an extra third rounder.

In Mock Draft 3.0 (and 2.0) I went with Darrisaw here and to be honest I’m scared to move off the pick at the 11th hour and then Minnesota ultimately does take him. However, both Peter King’s mock draft and MMQB connect Vera-Tucker to the Vikings and I feel like there has to be something to that. Granted, you’d think Breer has a lot of overlapping sources as King given how long he was essentially King’s understudy, but still.

It makes sense in hindsight. Minnesota spent a second round pick on Ezra Cleveland in preparation of needing a tackle coming 2021. With Riley Reiff on the roster Cleveland kicked inside to guard, but you’d have to imagine with Reiff gone Cleveland will move back outside. Enter Vera-Tucker.

Of course, they could keep Cleveland at guard and start with trying Vera-Tucker at tackle, but that further cements this pick as it would provide for flexibility.

#15 Detroit Lions (F/NE) – LB Micah Parsons, Penn State

As promised, math! You may have saw the terms of the trade above (#15, #46, 2022 first for #7 and #153) and thought “that seems like not enough.” For whatever reason, when these trades happen on the clock they don’t approach the bounties teams pay when they happen before draft day. While the Wentz, Darnold, and 2021 QB3 (via projection) trades saw the selling team profit 27.5 points of draft capital on average, when it came to the Trubisky, Mahomes, Watson, Allen, and Rosen trades that happened on draft night it was a completely different story.

These trades are not created equally. Among other things, distance traveled and the quality of the prospect matters. But for what it’s worth, if we project New England’s 2022 first rounder to be the 22nd pick next year, then Detroit walks away with a profit 17.7 points, which is in the Trubisky, Mahomes, Watson, Allen range (14.5 – 21.4).

There’s also a reasonable argument to be made Detroit will prioritize a future first over, say, anything Denver might offer to flip up a couple spots. The Lions seem to be playing the long game and will roll into 2021 with Goff, but presumably would like the ammo to move up in 2022 should it be necessary.

As for Parsons, there’s been multiple accounts linking him to the team, and for what it’s worth this tweet exists.

#16 Arizona Cardinals – CB Jaycee Horn, South Carolina

Vance Joseph believes playing man “makes calling games easier, it makes game-planning a lot easier.” Corner is a huge need for the Cardinals and Horn is the best man corner in the draft. This is another instance (like Dallas) where need and value align and the team just takes the best corner available.

#17 Las Vegas Raiders – LB Jamin Davis, Kentucky

Projecting what Vegas does is a nightmare. Jon Gruden and Mike Mayock have displayed an obvious pattern. They draft for need, are ridiculously overconfident in their own evaluation abilities, and disregard positional value. Oh, and if you didn’t play at an SEC school you better be from a national power house.

They’ve made five first round picks together, which are:

-Clelin Ferrell, 4th overall
-Josh Jacobs, running back
-Johnathan Abram, box safety
-Henry Ruggs as the first receiver off the board
-Damon Arnette, 19th overall

In the first three rounds the duo has selected five players from the SEC, four players from Clemson, and one from Ohio State. While they’re prone to go off the reservation, there’s at least some clues.

The Raiders jettisoned their offensive line this offseason so it’s a huge need which would make Darrisaw an easy pick here. However, this nugget from April 26th’s Monday Morning Quarterback really caught my attention:

Given their losses on the offensive line, someone like Darrisaw could make sense for the Raiders. But keep an eye on Kentucky LB Jamin Davis right in this area—he’d be a good fit for new DC Gus Bradley’s front, maybe in a Bruce Irvin type of role, and has been great with teams in meetings after crushing his pro day.

There’s your “what the fuck?” first round pick that is now customary in this regime. Given that the Gruden-Mayock regime took a running back and box safety in the first round of the same draft I don’t think an off-ball linebacker is out of the question here. Half of the Gruden-Mayock selections in the first three rounds have been SEC products. We’re hearing Darrisaw’s passiveness is turning off some decision makers and I’d venture to guess Gruden is one of them.

Almost everything I just said can be applied to Owusu-Koramoah as well.

#18 Miami Dolphins – LB Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah, Notre Dame

I’ve never understood the clamoring for a running back here by Dolphins fans but, whatever.

In 2020, Chris Grier showed a deference for players at positions of value. After taking Tua 5th, he followed it up with two more first round picks; a left tackle (albeit a reach) and then a corner despite having Xavien Howard and Byron Jones already.

But here we are projecting a linebacker. If Paye gets here I think he’s the pick. I don’t really like the other edge’s fit and Miami might be more content to let the edge class come to them instead of taking their guy here (although they stuck their neck out on Jackson last year).

Owusu-Koramoah is a versatile weapon that Flores can deploy in a multitude of ways.

I like the idea of Moehrig here as well. Miami needs help at safety and Moehrig is the best in the class and then there’s a drop off so the Dolphins could snag him there then circle back with their 80 other picks hit to edge, offensive line, etc.

#19 Washington – OT Christian Darrisaw, Virginia Tech

If Washington doesn’t go up for a quarterback I think three prime targets here are JOK, Darrisaw and Moehrig.

With JOK off the board Darrisaw satisfies a big need and is a good value here.

#20 Philadelphia Eagles (F/CHI) – DT Christian Barmore, Alabama

Regarding the trade (#20, #83, 2022 first for #12) it winds up being similar to what the Chiefs traded away to move up for Mahomes (#27, #91, and a future first).

As for the pick, Roseman has routinely prioritized the trenches, receivers and corners with high picks. Fletcher Cox will be 32 in 2022 and Philly can save $10 million by cutting him. In 2023 Cox and Hargrave are free agents. In 2019 the Eagles took Dilliard to prep for the day an aging Peters was no longer their left tackle. You can argue at the time they were in a better position to take think more long-term, but I think Roseman in general thinks a few years ahead.

This class is deep at receiver and along the offensive line, and the corner class is at least “interesting” later on. If this trade happens the way I’m projecting, Philly would have four Day 3 picks to address more pressing needs.

The two picks above this I’ve said Moehrig would make sense since he is the best at a shallow position and that sentiment is even greater for Barmore. Defensive tackle is arguably the worst position in this class, and Barmore is easily the best of the bunch. He has work to do, but that’s the point to him starting off behind Cox and Hargrave. Barmore has the potential to provide the elite interior rush Cox currently provides once Cox is gone.

Yes I’ve seen the “uncoachable” stuff that came out early in the week. But that only means the media just learned about it. Teams surely were already aware and continuously throughout this process the reports have been the league is higher on Barmore than the outside world thinks, so no, I don’t believe Barmore will slide very far as a result.

#21 Green Bay Packers (F/IND) – CB Greg Newsome II, Northwestern


Indianapolis Receives: #29, #92
Green Bay Receives: #21

One of the things I’m most confident of ahead of the draft is Chris Ballard trading down. He loves to do so anyway, and he’s short on picks due to the Wentz trade. So it’s just a matter of figuring out the dance partner.

In each of the last three drafts the Packers have traded up. There’s more context to it than that (in 2018 they traded back up after moving down and in 2019 they moved up with their additional first round pick they had acquired from the Saints) but the point is they’re certainly not afraid to do so.

It may be hard to project this front office to pull the trigger on a win now move like this after taking a quarterback and then running back first and second last year. However, after watching Kevin King get absolutely torched in the NFC title game last year I’d say there’s a fair likelihood the Packers go up for a corner they view as an immediate impact player.

#22 Tennessee Titans – CB Caleb Farley, Virginia Tech

The Titans have three clear needs; receiver, offensive tackle, and corner. Corner is the most shallow of the three positions in this class, and in 2017 we watched Jon Robinson reach on Corey Davis at #5 over more talented prospects (such as Marshon Lattimore) because in 2017 receiver was a shallow position. He then came back with his second first rounder and selected Adoree Jackson to address his need at corner.

We know a couple other things about Robinson. He will draft for need and he really likes athleticism. Oh, and in 2019 he drafted Jeffery Simmons 19th overall despite a recent ACL tear. Simmons was a top 10 pick without the injury so Robinson took advantage of such a talented player falling down the board.

Farley hits a huge need at a shallower position in the draft in comparison to Tennessee’s other needs, he’s as athletic as it gets, and he would go top 12 if it weren’t for his injuries.

#23 New York Jets (F/SEA) – OT Teven Jenkins, Oklahoma State

It’s common practice for a team to follow up drafting a first round quarterback with a support piece. Offensive line, wide receiver, tight end. If Jenkins pans out then the Jets will already have bookend tackles in place to protect Wilson.

#24 Pittsburgh Steelers – RB Najee Harris, Alabama

I couldn’t disagree with this more but there’s too much noise about the Steelers and Najee Harris to ignore. At this point I’d be surprised if this wasn’t the pick.

#25 Jacksonville Jaguars (F/LAR) – Edge Jayson Oweh, Penn State

A lot of Monday’s rumor dump tied this pick to defense, and more than one specifically to Oweh. Armed with 5 picks in the top 65, Jacksonville is going to surround Lawrence with support in the form of protection and receivers. However, Todd McShay specifically said “three or four of those five Day 1 and Day 2 picks” could be spent on helping Quarterback Jesus.

Then Peter King mocked Oweh to Jacksonville and Albert Breer connected the Jaguars and Oweh due to the fact Urban Meyer recruited him out of high school. In a year where the entire pre-draft process is wholly untraditional, I think teams are going to lean on any direct advantage they may have. The Jaguars staff, as King noted, is stocked with recent college personnel, so they should be able to get better intel.

Also, as Breer noted, while in San Francisco Baalke had a history of stacking pass rushers, so the presence of Josh Allen and K’Lavon Chaisson may not scare Jacksonville off Oweh. It would make sense that the Jaguars view this pick as a luxury they shouldn’t even have and swing for upside on a defensive player before spending Friday night filling out the offense.

#26 Cleveland Browns – WR Elijah Moore, Ole Miss

Let’s get weird. This pick is always defense, defense, defense and yes if Cleveland goes edge or corner it would surprise nobody.

Hear me out though. How much longer do you expect Beckham to be on this roster? When the offense began to click last year Beckham was sidelined. I’m not suggesting they’re better off without him, I’m just saying that after 2021 there’s no dead money left on OBJ’s deal which makes moving him easier. You know what else happens after 2021? Baker Mayfield and Denzel Ward’s 5th year options kick-in, upping their cap hits. At a certain point, Cleveland is going to question if Beckham is still worth his price tag.

Ok, sure, Jarvis Landry exists and has the slot on lockdown but how much longer will he be around either? The Browns can save $15 million in 2022 by cutting or trading Jarvis, and if they don’t then in 2023 Landry is a 31 year old free agent.

At some point it’s time to restock your weaponry and Andrew Berry strikes me as the type to do it ahead of time. As we close in on the draft Elijah Moore keeps getting more and more hype and I think his floor is the Jets at 34 with a very good chance of getting into Round 1.

#27 Baltimore Ravens – WR Rashod Bateman, Minnesota

This is the perfect blend of everything you’d look for in a draft pick. Value? Check. Hits a need? Check. Is a good fit for the roster? Check. If I bat 1.000 on Thursday night with my mock then on Friday this would easily get my highest grade.

#28 New Orleans Saints – WR Kadarius Toney, Florida

Do you really think Sean Payton will be able to help himself if Kadarius Toney is on the board? Toney is getting a lot of traction leading up to the draft and could allegedly go much higher than this, but I feel like he is going to slide due to his character concerns.

#29 Indianapolis Colts (F/GB) – OT Samuel Cosmi, Texas

The Colts really need a left tackle and more edge defenders. I’m not saying Ballard will chase a need but he also covets athleticism and Cosmi has more than enough of it.

#30 Buffalo Bills – RB Travis Etienne, Clemson

I don’t agree with this pick, but I’m not projecting what I’d do. Buffalo gets their choice of any running back.

#31 Miami Dolphins (F/BAL/KC) – S Trevon Moehrig, TCU


Baltimore Receives: #36, #81
Miami Receives: #31, #94

Circling back to what I said at 18, I could see Miami wanting to lock up the best safety in the draft if Flores believes he can use him in a Devin McCourty type manner.

#32 Tampa Bay Buccaneers – Edge Jaelan Phillips, Miami

The Bucs are in an interesting position. They don’t really need anything, so they can either just take the best player they think would make the most immediate impact as they chase another Super Bowl, or they can swing for the fences on a project.
Phillips’ upside is too much to pass on here. Jason Pierre-Paul will be a 33 year old free agent in 2022 so after a year of grooming Phillips can step in and help Brady chase his 9th ring. I do expect Phillips to fall a bit due to his medical history.


Round Two

#33 Jacksonville Jaguars – TE Pat Freiermuth, Penn State

About the teams that draft a quarterback draft help thing. Well, here ya go.

#34 New York Jets – CB Asante Samuel Jr., Florida State

This could easily be a weapon for Wilson but after bringing in Davis the Jets may snag the best corner and return to the offense in the third round.

#35 Atlanta Falcons – Edge Joe Tryon, Washington

Atlanta just takes their highest rated defender.

#36 Baltimore Ravens (F/MIA/HOU) – OT Alex Leatherwood, Alabama

Orlando Brown replacement who figures to fit nicely into the vacated role.

#37 Philadelphia Eagles – WR Terrace Marshall Jr., LSU

This is self explanatory, right?

#38 Cincinnati Bengals – OT Liam Eichenberg, Notre Dame

After passing on Sewell the Bengals take a tackle.

#39 Carolina Panthers – CB Eric Stokes, Georgia

Carolina’s corner situation is a disaster.

#40 Denver Broncos – Edge Azeez Ojulari, Georgia

Von Miller will be a 33 year old free agent in 2022 and has his off-field issue right now.

#41 Detroit Lions – IOL Landon Dickerson, Alabama

The fact Dickerson came into the title game, even just to snap the kneel down, is the type of kneecap-bitting attitude Dan Campbell is looking for.

#42 New York Giants – LB Nick Bolton, Missouri

I feel like Gettleman will just fall for Bolton with how hard he hits.

#43 San Francisco 49ers – WR Dyami Brown, North Carolina

Shanahan wants to add a real vertical threat to Lance’s weapons.

#44 Dallas Cowboys – LB Zaven Collins, Tulsa

Last year the Cowboys took people that feel into their laps. Enter Collins.

#45 Jacksonville Jaguars (F/MIN) – OT Dillon Radunz, North Dakota State

And now protection for Lawrence.

#46 Detroit Lions (F/NE) – WR Amon-Ra St. Brown, USC

This is just necessary.

#47 Los Angeles Chargers – RB Javonte Williams, North Carolina

Look, I don’t like this any more than you do but it looks like Williams is going to go in the top 50 picks, and it’s honestly difficult for me to find a logical place, but someone is going to pull the trigger. If Ekeler gets hurt again does Los Angeles want to trot out the likes of Joshua Kelley and Kalen Ballage again? Do the Chargers want to limit the number of hits Ekeler takes over the course of the season?

#48 Las Vegas Raiders – OT Jackson Carman, Clemson

Find you someone that loves you like Mayock loves Clemson prospects.

#49 Arizona Cardinals –  WR Rondale Moore, Purdue

I don’t know if Kliff can pass on this toy.

#50 Miami Dolphins – OT Spencer Brown, Northern Iowa

Last year Miami reached on an unpolished, athletic tackle because they prioritized Tua’s protection. I’m convinced the Dolphins are going to spend a second round pick on the offensive line.

#51 Washington – QB Kellen Mond, Texas A&M

Washington figures it’s worth a shot here in the second.

#52 Chicago Bears – OT James Hudson, Cincinnati

Before you yell at me that this is an egregious reach just remember that Ryan Pace drafted Adam Shaheen 45th overall.

#53 Tennessee Titans – WR Nico Collins, Michigan

Jon Robinson, addressing needs with athletic traits.

#54 Indianapolis Colts – Edge Carlos Basham Jr. , Wake Forest

Good chance the Colts address offensive tackle and edge with their first two picks.

#55 Pittsburgh Steelers – IOL Creed Humphrey, Oklahoma

Pittsburgh needs help on the interior.

#56 Washington (F/SEA) – CB Tyson Campbell, Georgia


Seattle Receives: #74, #124
Washington Receives: #56

Seattle trading down from this pick is nearly a certainty. Campbell is getting a lot of pre-draft buzz so Washington might view this as a great value and go get him.

#57 Los Angeles Chargers (F/LAR) – IOL Quinn Meinerz, Wisconsin-Whitewater


Rams Receives: #77, #118
Chargers Receives: #57

Right in a row two NFC West teams without a first round pick that I expect to trade down from this slot in order to acquire additional picks.

With two third rounders, the Chargers come up to finally address the offensive line.

#58 Kansas City Chiefs (F/BAL) – Edge Gregory Rousseau, Miami

A threat opposite Clark that can shrink inside on third downs.

#59 Cleveland Browns – CB Elijah Molden, Washington

The Browns jump for the slot/safety versatility.

#60 New Orleans Saints – CB Ifeatu Melifonwu, Syracuse

Given Lattimore’s recent criminal situation New Orleans may be in the market for a corner early on.

#61 Buffalo Bills – IOL Wyatt Davis, Ohio State

If Etienne is going to run anywhere he needs someone to block for him.

#62 Green Bay Packers – OT Walker Little, Stanford

There’s a lot of buzz growing on Little so he may not make it out of the second round despite the injury concerns.

#63 Kansas City Chiefs – LB Jabril Cox, LSU

Value is too good to pass up.

#64 Tampa Bay Buccaneers – DL Levi Onwuzurike, Washington

One day Suh will no longer be on the Buccaneers and when that day comes Tampa can turn to Levi.

Round Three

#65 Jacksonville Jaguars – WR Amari Rodgers, Clemson

More weapons for Trevor, this time an old friend.

#66 New York Jets – Edge Payton Turner, Houston

This value is just too good to pass up.

#67 Houston Texans – Edge Joseph Ossai, Texas

Houston needs everything so this is just the best player available.

#68 Atlanta Falcons – CB Kelvin Joseph, Kentucky

More defensive help.

#69 Cincinnati Bengals – IOL Josh Meyers, Ohio State

I think there’s a good chance the Bengals double dip on the offensive Day 2 if they take Chase 5th.

#70 Philadelphia Eagles – CB Paulson Adebo, Stanford

The Eagles address corner with a potential big time steal.

#71 Denver Broncos – LB Baron Browning, Ohio State

Someone might roll the dice on these traits Day 2.

#72 Detroit Lions – WR Tylan Wallace, Oklahoma State

More weapons needed

#73 Carolina Panthers – WR D’Wayne Eskridge, Western Michigan

The Panthers want to make sure Darnold has more weapons than at any point in New York.

#74 Seattle Seahawks (F/WAS/SF) – IOL Kendrick Green, Illinois

This regime likes athletes and Wilson has probably forced their hand taking oline first.

#75 Dallas Cowboys – S Jevon Holland, Oregon

Dallas cannot believe their eyes this guy is still here.

#76 New York Giants – IOL Ben Cleveland, Georgia

New York has to fix the interior of this line and Cleveland is a hog mollie from Georgia.

#77 Los Angeles Rams (F/LAC) – C Drake Jackson, Kentucky

Fixing the weakest link on the offensive line.

#78 Minnesota Vikings – Edge Ronnie Perkins, Oklahoma

If the Vikings don’t go edge in the first expect them to address it on Day 3.

#79 Las Vegas Raiders (F/ARI) – DT Tyler Shelvin, LSU

The Raiders run defense last year was putrid and Shelvin is an SEC product.

#80 Las Vegas Raiders – Edge Jonathon Cooper, Ohio State

A late riser from a powerhouse program.

#81 Baltimore Ravens (F/MIA) – S Jamar Johnson, Indiana

A rangy safety for the back end.

#82 Washington – LB Chazz Surratt, North Carolina

Just hitting a big need.

#83 Philadelphia Eagles (F/CHI) – CB Aaron Robinson, UCF

If the Eagles don’t take a corner in Round 1 I could see them doubling up on Day 2.

#84 Philadelphia Eagles (F/IND) – S Andre Cisco, Syracuse

With my fake trade the Eagles have three third rounders so I could see Roseman rolling the dice on Cisco here.

#85 Tennessee Titans – OT Stone Forsythe, Florida

Welp, back to the drawing board.

#86 New York Jets (F/SEA) – WR Anthony Schwartz, Auburn

A weapon for Wilson in the form of the fastest kid alive.

#87 Pittsburgh Steelers – CB Benjamin St-Juste, Minnesota

Reinforcement in the secondary.

#88 Los Angeles Rams – LB Pete Werner, Ohio State

The Rams fill a pressing need.

#89 Cleveland Browns – Edge Patrick Johnson, Tulane

Depth to groom behind Clowney in the event he leaves in 2022.

#90 Minnesota Vikings (F/BAL) – OT Jaylen Mayfield, Michigan

Mayfield is expected to go much higher than this so Minnesota would probably pounce if this happens.

#91 Cleveland Browns (F/NO) – DB Trill Williams, Syracuse

Cleveland doing smart things and continues investing resources into the secondary.

#92 Indianapolis Colts (F/GB) – QB Davis Mills, Stanford

Chris Ballard may not be able to pass on the opportunity to develop someone behind the scenes to be prepared in the event Wentz falters.

#93 Buffalo Bills – Edge Dayo Odeyingbo, Vanderbilt

I could see Buffalo falling for Dayo’s physicality and rolling the dice here in the late third.

#94 Miami Dolphins (F/BAL/KC) – Edge Patrick Johnson, Tulane

Edge is very seriously in play at 18 depending on how the board breaks but in this scenario Miami doesn’t address it until now.

#95 Tampa Bay Buccaneers – QB Kyle Trask, Florida

Why not?

#96 New England Patriots – WR Jaelon Darden, North Texas

I hear the Patriots need a new slot receiver.

#97 Los Angeles Chargers – CB Ambry Thomas, Michigan

The Chargers need to leave the first two days with a corner.

#98 New Orleans Saints – OT Robert Hainsey, Notre Dame

The Saints may not be able to keep both Ramcyzk and Armstead long term.

#99 Dallas Cowboys – OL Brady Christensen, BYU

After the plague that hit Dallas’ offensive line last year they grab some versatile depth.

#100 Tennessee Titans – TE Brevin Jordan, Miami

Jonnu replacement.

#101 Detroit Lions (F/LAR) – S Riche Grant, UCF

I should probably find somewhere much higher for Grant, but his slide stops here.

#102 San Francisco 49ers – CB Israel Mukuamu, South Carolina

Corner help that fits the scheme.

#103 Los Angeles Rams – DT Alim McNeil, North Carolina State

Run stuffing nose tackle with pass rush upside.

#104 Baltimore Ravens – Edge Jordan Smith, UAB

The Ravens are inexplicably good at drafting edge defenders after round two who then get paid in free agency and then recouping the initial investment via a comp pick. Rinse, repeat.

#105 New Orleans Saints – WR Cade Johnson, South Dakota State

Sanders replacement.

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